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Post by landscaper on Mar 3, 2019 17:26:49 GMT -6
I agree with you coz
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Post by ajd446 on Mar 3, 2019 17:27:56 GMT -6
I honestly dont know if any model did good for today's storm.
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Post by cozpregon on Mar 3, 2019 17:38:29 GMT -6
All the models earlier in the week had the Gulf involved- that obviously was not the case
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 3, 2019 17:58:47 GMT -6
10 killed in Lee county AL
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 3, 2019 18:06:17 GMT -6
That was the storm producing the intense velocity couplet and scary debris singnature I think, right 99?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 3, 2019 18:07:38 GMT -6
Possible tornado headed for Colombia, SC
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 3, 2019 18:10:57 GMT -6
Might be subject to adjustment but the official NWS snow accumulation for today is 2.3 giving the airport 24.1 for the season.
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 3, 2019 18:13:54 GMT -6
That was the storm producing the intense velocity couplet and scary debris singnature I think, right 99? I believe so |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Mar 3, 2019 18:14:05 GMT -6
Not looking forward to going to work in the am. Spring needs to make an appearance up here. No wind, didn't get a chance to put up the anemometer before the snow hit last year.  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 3, 2019 18:19:16 GMT -6
It’s literally in the worst spot possible, and this will be the time it doesn’t move north or south as we get closer. The models which didn’t have where the main snow band was today even last night- is what your trusting for next week? I trust them when they are bad for all of us |
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Post by landscaper on Mar 3, 2019 18:31:19 GMT -6
I was just out a while ago and 95% of the roads were dry, road crews did a good job today. The March sun angle did its thing as soon as the snow stopped and the sun came out. Despite temps in the low 20’s there was a lot of melting. I think there’s still a chance for snow on Thursday from St. Louis and north east. It really depends on the strength of the high pressure to the north and the strength of the ejecting low. We would need a stronger high and weaker low to get any meaningful snow out of That setup. But it is possible, we should know a little more in a day or two. After that no real winter storm insight, but no prolonged warming either. I still think there may be a shot or two a wet snow especially a backside type storm .
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 3, 2019 18:31:57 GMT -6
With what appears to be a negative EPO (I'll let others confirm if that is the case), and a rebuild of the se ridge, I think we will revert to the same kind of pattern we've seen recently...with low pressures cutting to our west in the medium range, and quite possibly a return to a winter pattern last half of March. The airport has got to be very close to my seasonal snow prediction of 24 inches, and I've seen others on here reporting similar amounts for the season. The thing is, I just don't think we can close the books on this winter. We've seen too many seasons where we get a late "rogue" snow in the season. NAO is holding steady in the weak positive phase and overall, this winter has been pretty steady with a stable pattern...we haven't seen a high number of significant pattern changes overall, although, I know some of us have felt like we've gone long stretches of rather mundane weather. I'm only saying this because I see a lot of references to this being the last snow. I can't rule out some severe weather in March, but overall, I think March is going to be cold and rainy relative to norms. That means we have to keep an eye on these close cutting storms for backend winter events, and the possibility of secondary development. That includes the late week systems as well. The bottom line....I don't see a real flip to a spring pattern with severe weather imminent, but rather a gradual one, and until then, additional snow is a possibility. Conceptually I think we are in for a string of wet (active) cold winters, which sort of shows my cards on thoughts for next winter, absent the analysis on the ongoing late summer/fall patterns. I realize my discussion borders on climate. Bottom line, more snow is possible this winter with a gradual turn to Spring. As for severe, can't rule it out in March, but I'm thinking the meat of our severe will be in April and May...and I think it will be much more active than we've seen recently. For the record, yes, I'm hoping for a cool summer (that's not a prediction). This long term solar minima could coincide with a return to winters that many of us have seen in our past childhoods (I'm not referring to just the 11 year cycle, but rather to the longer term cycle (a reincarnation of the Dalton Minima?) - I'm going to have to see if I'm related to that guy for which the minima is named after. Just putting my non-scientific thoughts out there for now. For the record, I'm aware that one of us did a study on correlation of sunspots with seasonal winter patterns. If I have time, I'd like to dig deeper into that sort of thing.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 3, 2019 18:35:53 GMT -6
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 3, 2019 18:36:23 GMT -6
10 killed in Lee county AL WSFA 12 is reporting 14 on their facebook page. |
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Post by stlweatherguy - Hillsboro, MO on Mar 3, 2019 18:36:37 GMT -6
Best time to fish trout parks is during the winter season. No one around and easy to stay warm as water is the same temp all year.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Mar 3, 2019 18:38:56 GMT -6
I started a new job a few weeks ago and i couldn't risk getting stuck so i stayed home. Rest of the group left yesterday. Really wish i could have been there It was a really fantastic year but I will say it was downright cold this weekend and yesterday very few people caught anything but the other two days were great. If there was a year to miss it was this one. The wind was just poopy. |
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Post by Sparkman - Wildwood, Mo on Mar 3, 2019 18:47:06 GMT -6
With what appears to be a negative EPO (I'll let others confirm if that is the case), and a rebuild of the se ridge, I think we will revert to the same kind of pattern we've seen recently...with low pressures cutting to our west in the medium range, and quite possibly a return to a winter pattern last half of March. The airport has got to be very close to my seasonal snow prediction of 24 inches, and I've seen others on here reporting similar amounts for the season. The thing is, I just don't think we can close the books on this winter. We've seen too many seasons where we get a late "rogue" snow in the season. NAO is holding steady in the weak positive phase and overall, this winter has been pretty steady with a stable pattern...we haven't seen a high number of significant pattern changes overall, although, I know some of us have felt like we've gone long stretches of rather mundane weather. I'm only saying this because I see a lot of references to this being the last snow. I can't rule out some severe weather in March, but overall, I think March is going to be cold and rainy relative to norms. That means we have to keep an eye on these close cutting storms for backend winter events, and the possibility of secondary development. That includes the late week systems as well. The bottom line....I don't see a real flip to a spring pattern with severe weather imminent, but rather a gradual one, and until then, additional snow is a possibility. Conceptually I think we are in for a string of wet (active) cold winters, which sort of shows my cards on thoughts for next winter, absent the analysis on the ongoing late summer/fall patterns. I realize my discussion borders on climate. Bottom line, more snow is possible this winter with a gradual turn to Spring. As for severe, can't rule it out in March, but I'm thinking the meat of our severe will be in April and May...and I think it will be much more active than we've seen recently. For the record, yes, I'm hoping for a cool summer (that's not a prediction). This long term solar minima could coincide with a return to winters that many of us have seen in our past childhoods (I'm not referring to just the 11 year cycle, but rather to the longer term cycle (a reincarnation of the Dalton Minima?) - I'm going to have to see if I'm related to that guy for which the minima is named after. Just putting my non-scientific thoughts out there for now. For the record, I'm aware that one of us did a study on correlation of sunspots with seasonal winter patterns. If I have time, I'd like to dig deeper into that sort of thing. This was a helpful analysis. I too have started my own amateur research into solar activity and it’s correlation to the near and long term weather patterns - it’s interesting stuff. |
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Post by ajd446 on Mar 3, 2019 18:54:27 GMT -6
Ok I apologize to everyone out here. But I have added up my seasonal total and after taking in the proper measuring techniques. And deducting a half an inch to am inch for grass measurements. I have come up to 29.7 inches for the entire season. Is that plausible. I really want to try to get better at the measuring going forward. I need to see what some of you folks in Wentzville and ofallon and harvester have for the year. But I have 29.7 if I add every event up. Befor I deducted for the measurements in the grass I was 34.9. So I hope I am in reason now. And that is including 3.1 for today imstead of 4.1 as the shed would of been the best measurement
Again. I apologize everyone and Chris. But if that number seems roughly right. Then I am giving this winter a A and I will be better from now on. I am sorry guys. I live for snow and I get too wrapped up at times in estimating more than actual.
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Mar 3, 2019 19:06:45 GMT -6
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 3, 2019 19:07:24 GMT -6
With what appears to be a negative EPO (I'll let others confirm if that is the case), and a rebuild of the se ridge, I think we will revert to the same kind of pattern we've seen recently...with low pressures cutting to our west in the medium range, and quite possibly a return to a winter pattern last half of March. The airport has got to be very close to my seasonal snow prediction of 24 inches, and I've seen others on here reporting similar amounts for the season. The thing is, I just don't think we can close the books on this winter. We've seen too many seasons where we get a late "rogue" snow in the season. NAO is holding steady in the weak positive phase and overall, this winter has been pretty steady with a stable pattern...we haven't seen a high number of significant pattern changes overall, although, I know some of us have felt like we've gone long stretches of rather mundane weather. I'm only saying this because I see a lot of references to this being the last snow. I can't rule out some severe weather in March, but overall, I think March is going to be cold and rainy relative to norms. That means we have to keep an eye on these close cutting storms for backend winter events, and the possibility of secondary development. That includes the late week systems as well. The bottom line....I don't see a real flip to a spring pattern with severe weather imminent, but rather a gradual one, and until then, additional snow is a possibility. Conceptually I think we are in for a string of wet (active) cold winters, which sort of shows my cards on thoughts for next winter, absent the analysis on the ongoing late summer/fall patterns. I realize my discussion borders on climate. Bottom line, more snow is possible this winter with a gradual turn to Spring. As for severe, can't rule it out in March, but I'm thinking the meat of our severe will be in April and May...and I think it will be much more active than we've seen recently. For the record, yes, I'm hoping for a cool summer (that's not a prediction). This long term solar minima could coincide with a return to winters that many of us have seen in our past childhoods (I'm not referring to just the 11 year cycle, but rather to the longer term cycle (a reincarnation of the Dalton Minima?) - I'm going to have to see if I'm related to that guy for which the minima is named after. Just putting my non-scientific thoughts out there for now. For the record, I'm aware that one of us did a study on correlation of sunspots with seasonal winter patterns. If I have time, I'd like to dig deeper into that sort of thing. This was a helpful analysis. I too have started my own amateur research into solar activity and it’s correlation to the near and long term weather patterns - it’s interesting stuff. Keep me and others informed of your findings on here. It's not a slam dunk ever, but it helps with getting an idea of the upcoming winters at the longer leads, when short term patterns are not available. |
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Post by landscaper on Mar 3, 2019 19:27:10 GMT -6
We are in the 29-30” range here in Wentzville.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Mar 3, 2019 19:28:01 GMT -6
As much as I enjoy Beakers outlook and insight, I hope your wrong about winter making a come back for the last half of March. At least I hope it isn't a comeback like last year. I have a bunch of bees scheduled for delivery the 28th. I don't need summer like temps to put them in hives, but they need to be at least early spring like. Dry would help a lot too. Last winter, it was wet and turned cold. It was tough getting them going in weather like that!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 3, 2019 19:29:37 GMT -6
Ok I apologize to everyone out here. But I have added up my seasonal total and after taking in the proper measuring techniques. And deducting a half an inch to am inch for grass measurements. I have come up to 29.7 inches for the entire season. Is that plausible. I really want to try to get better at the measuring going forward. I need to see what some of you folks in Wentzville and ofallon and harvester have for the year. But I have 29.7 if I add every event up. Befor I deducted for the measurements in the grass I was 34.9. So I hope I am in reason now. And that is including 3.1 for today imstead of 4.1 as the shed would of been the best measurement Again. I apologize everyone and Chris. But if that number seems roughly right. Then I am giving this winter a A and I will be better from now on. I am sorry guys. I live for snow and I get too wrapped up at times in estimating more than actual. Finding the ideal spot to take measurements is a challenge in many cases. I live on a culdesac, with trees in my back yard, and my front yard faces the sun. So I often just use measurements that show up on nearby snowfall reports for my location. If I truly measure, I use the notation, M2.5 and I describe my measurement. Oftentimes, I use the notation E2.5 if I don't use a ruler and I see a variety of different reports around in my area. I know that there's a certain observer in Dardenne Prairie that is trustworthy for me. I also live close enough to the NWS in Weldon Spring, so I look for consistency in measurements between there and the Dardenne Prairie report. I toss my measurement if mine is inconsistent. Even though I'm registered as a storm spotter, I don't send reports unless I have a snowboard with sides to circumvent blowing. When taking measurement, the biggest "gotcha" is to stick the ruler straight in, not move it forward or backward. That's how I do it. Anything Chris says that conflicts with method - follow what he says. FWIW, I've only called in two reports as a storm spotter - 1 inch hail a few years ago, and a 14 inch snowfall during that one big snow a few years ago (St. Patricks Day?)...I believe that report got tossed even though it was consistent because it was a measurement taken on a deck. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 3, 2019 19:38:15 GMT -6
As much as I enjoy Beakers outlook and insight, I hope your wrong about winter making a come back for the last half of March. At least I hope it isn't a comeback like last year. I have a bunch of bees scheduled for delivery the 28th. I don't need summer like temps to put them in hives, but they need to be at least early spring like. Dry would help a lot too. Last winter, it was wet and turned cold. It was tough getting them going in weather like that! Of course, I don't need to say this, but in all probability, getting bees delivered on March 28 is fine. When I say winter comeback in late March, I'm thinking more of a rogue day or two comeback, not a sustained winter pattern like what we are getting this early week. If its cold enough to snow in the 3rd week of March, it's probably going to be spring like in the 4th week of March. The old saying in like a lion, out like a lamb, is still on the table. But if you're looking for a prolonged period of 75 and sunny...I would not bet on that before the 28th. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 3, 2019 19:39:45 GMT -6
35 inches would be very hard to believe.
It would be over 15% more than the 2nd highest report.
30 seems possible being in the sweet spot for most storms.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 3, 2019 19:57:19 GMT -6
Maybe next year, I'll cut a board and paint it white, and see what kind of measurements I come up with. I should get a lot of use out of it. I can't do wind reports either...I doubt Twin Chimneys Elementary would let me install a weather station. My son has a hand-held anemometer, but nah, I don't really want to do that. Now wind speeds...that is definitely sensitive to elevation...not so much with snow accumulation around here. I just don't think I can get a good wind reading where I'm at, unless I work with the school, or maybe the subdivision. But, the one I put in my backyard a few years ago was broken by kids pretty quickly.
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Post by landscaper on Mar 3, 2019 20:46:43 GMT -6
World Series, I know we are around 30” here in Wentzville, we were in the jack pot area for many storms. This is the most snow I have seen in s long time. We had two Winter Storm Warnings and probably 13-15 winter weather advisory’s. It was not as cold but very similar to the amount of storms in 13-14. There were 14 events that year. This year there were (4) plow able storms, (9”,14”,2.5”,3”) and the other ones were less than 2” events that were just chemical treatment type events. From a former snow removal guy stand point this was a phenomenal year to be in the business. I have a lot of friends who have been very busy this year. It’s a good thing Winter is almost over, salt and chemicals are getting very hard to get. I am ready for spring!
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Post by ajd446 on Mar 3, 2019 20:48:05 GMT -6
Yes it was a great year for the st.charles county folks
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Post by landscaper on Mar 3, 2019 20:59:08 GMT -6
The 0z NAM has a nice look. It has a 1038 HP sliding down into Iowa with the low pressure coming out of the Rockies . It looks closer to the GEM and Euro. That would be the perfect setup for a pretty good burst of snow on Thursday. That’s basically what I mentioned earlier today we would need to see snow here in St. Louis. Totally different setup than the GFS.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 3, 2019 21:25:43 GMT -6
The 0z NAM has a nice look. It has a 1038 HP sliding down into Iowa with the low pressure coming out of the Rockies . It looks closer to the GEM and Euro. That would be the perfect setup for a pretty good burst of snow on Thursday. That’s basically what I mentioned earlier today we would need to see snow here in St. Louis. Totally different setup than the GFS. 00z icon remains firmly in the Central Illinois camp |
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