Here is a time-lapse video of today's snow from O'Fallon. I started the clip around 5AM and cut it at 5:30 PM. Really interesting how quickly the snow started melting as soon as the sun came out.
This is interesting. I went back and looked at radar for the Lee CO, AL killer tornado today. You can clearly see several distinct debris ejections centrifuging out of the tornado. Look closely at the correlation coefficient (blue & green shades are debris) in the lower left panel and track the tornado from south of Opelika to north of Bibb City. You can see debris spiraling out the tornado counter-clockwise with a debris plume spreading out well north of the tornado. This effect has been observed before many times, but is very distinct in this case because the tornado is so close to the radar.
Post by showtime - Marissa on Mar 3, 2019 21:33:40 GMT -6
Just heard a recording of a 911 dispatch asking for search and rescue volunteers for Cario Georgia.... she said use extreme caution as the whole town has damage.... it literally gave me chills listening
Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 3, 2019 21:33:53 GMT -6
The spc issued storm level meso an hour before the lee county tornado. The local office also performed well. We have reached a point where warnings are a sociological problem.
Mesoscale Discussion 0145 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2019
Areas affected...east-central AL
Concerning...Tornado Watch 7...
Valid 031900Z - 031930Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 7 continues.
SUMMARY...Strong tornado potential appears to be maximizing over east-central AL through 3pm CST.
DISCUSSION...A mature supercell located near Montgomery is favorably located within a region of maximized surface pressure falls (3-4mb per 2 hours) immediately east/southeast of the surface low. KMXX VAD shows 500 m2/s2 0-1km SRH when accounting for the observed Montgomery County supercell's storm motion. Given the ample buoyancy and intense shear profile in place, it appears tornadogenesis will likely occur within the next 30-60 minutes with the possibility of a strong tornado occurring.
GEM looks similar to the euro. EPS suggest a weak/south system to. Honestly, I have little interest in the Thursday system. I have a feeling it’s going to fizzle out the closer it gets
With what appears to be a negative EPO (I'll let others confirm if that is the case), and a rebuild of the se ridge, I think we will revert to the same kind of pattern we've seen recently...with low pressures cutting to our west in the medium range, and quite possibly a return to a winter pattern last half of March. The airport has got to be very close to my seasonal snow prediction of 24 inches, and I've seen others on here reporting similar amounts for the season. The thing is, I just don't think we can close the books on this winter. We've seen too many seasons where we get a late "rogue" snow in the season. NAO is holding steady in the weak positive phase and overall, this winter has been pretty steady with a stable pattern...we haven't seen a high number of significant pattern changes overall, although, I know some of us have felt like we've gone long stretches of rather mundane weather. I'm only saying this because I see a lot of references to this being the last snow. I can't rule out some severe weather in March, but overall, I think March is going to be cold and rainy relative to norms. That means we have to keep an eye on these close cutting storms for backend winter events, and the possibility of secondary development. That includes the late week systems as well. The bottom line....I don't see a real flip to a spring pattern with severe weather imminent, but rather a gradual one, and until then, additional snow is a possibility. Conceptually I think we are in for a string of wet (active) cold winters, which sort of shows my cards on thoughts for next winter, absent the analysis on the ongoing late summer/fall patterns. I realize my discussion borders on climate. Bottom line, more snow is possible this winter with a gradual turn to Spring. As for severe, can't rule it out in March, but I'm thinking the meat of our severe will be in April and May...and I think it will be much more active than we've seen recently. For the record, yes, I'm hoping for a cool summer (that's not a prediction). This long term solar minima could coincide with a return to winters that many of us have seen in our past childhoods (I'm not referring to just the 11 year cycle, but rather to the longer term cycle (a reincarnation of the Dalton Minima?) - I'm going to have to see if I'm related to that guy for which the minima is named after. Just putting my non-scientific thoughts out there for now. For the record, I'm aware that one of us did a study on correlation of sunspots with seasonal winter patterns. If I have time, I'd like to dig deeper into that sort of thing.
I find this topic interesting as well. Sorry in advance for the long commentary below.
The 11yr solar cycle causes a variation in total solar irradiance of about 1.0 W/m^2 give or take. However, TSI is incident radiation at a 90 degree angle so to get the integrated radiation received over the whole surface you have to take the cross sectional area of a sphere which ends up being 1/4 (there is some clever geometry in play here to get this reduction value). So the total variation is actually about ±0.25 W/m^2. That might seem small, but it's actually a decent radiative forcing. Afterall, if all of this power perturbation were to last a full year and the integrated energy went into the atmosphere and only the atmosphere it would be enough to change the temperature by about ±0.8C. In reality though there is an enormous amount of thermal inertia in the geosphere. 90% or more of the radiative forcing perturbations are buffered by the hydrosphere. And the hydrosphere provides an enormous thermal buffer that fights tropospheric temperature changes. This is because the hydrosphere has over 1000x the thermal mass of the atmosphere. This inertia takes about 20-50 years to equilibriate with the troposphere which is much longer than a single solar cycle.
And just to put this ±0.25 W/m^2 into perspective consider that volcanic eruptions can easily put more radiative forcing on the geosphere than the Sun. For example, the VEI 6 eruption of Pinatubo in 1991 put a peak radiative forcing on the geosphere of -2.5 W/m^2 or about 10x as much as solar peak-to-trough. Though that was a very short lived event since SO2 essentially precipitates out within a few months and a solar cycle down/cool phase lasts 5-6 years.
Another way to put this ±0.25 W/m^2 into perspective is to consider the change in forcing provided by CO2. The concentration increased from about 384 ppm to 409 ppm in the last 11 years (about the length of solar cycle 25). This provided a radiative forcing of 5.35 * ln(409/384) = +0.34 W/m^2 which more than offsets the peak-to-trough solar forcing of -0.25 W/m^2. So what's happening right now is the up/warm solar phase puts a combined 0.25 + 0.17 = +0.42 W/m^2 forcing on the geosphere and the down/cool solar phase only puts a combined -0.25 + 0.17 = -0.08 W/m^2 forcing on the geosphere. And again, note the up/down phases each individually last 5-6 years with the combined up+down cycle lasting 10-12 years.
And yet another way to put this ±0.25 W/m^2 into perspective is to consider the current energy imbalance on the geosphere. The heat uptake perturbation is about +10e21 joules/year right now. This is 10e21 joules / 31557600 seconds / 510e12 m^2 = +0.62 W/m^2. So the entire solar cycle swing (peak-to-trough or trough-to-peak) represents less than 50% of the current energy imbalance.
Another topic of consideration are the possibilities that other solar properties like the magnetic field could indirectly effect seasonal weather. As of right now the consensus is that solar radiation is the one and only solar property that matters for seasonal and decadal climate.
I guess my point is this...solar cycle forcing is actually pretty large on a power perturbation basis, but because the hydrosphere provides so much thermal inertia the troposphere barely responds before the phase changes direction every 5-6 years.
And when it's all said and done the question of most importance to us is whether there is any correlation between solar cycles and a "good" winter in St. Louis. Most of us subjectively define "good" as years with a few more inches of snowfall above the climatological average. I've looked at this pretty closely and based on my own research the answer is no. The R^2 correlations between St. Louis snowfall and solar activity is so low that snowfall and solar activity are close to a purely random distribution. In fact, almost all seasonally predictable climate indices have close to zero correlation with snowfall in St. Louis. There are definitive correlations on a decadal basis though including grand solar cycles (like the Dalton or Maunder Minimums and the Modern Maximum), but that is a topic for long term climatology and has less yearly nevermind seasonal relevance.
GEM looks similar to the euro. EPS suggest a weak/south system to. Honestly, I have little interest in the Thursday system. I have a feeling it’s going to fizzle out the closer it gets
I disagree. It is a carbon copy from a month ago with a retreating artic airmass (that storm dropped several inches in northern Illinois)
It should drop 3-6 somewhere, probably north of the metro.
Then we get a ton of rain for the weekend and Snowman99 rants
With what appears to be a negative EPO (I'll let others confirm if that is the case), and a rebuild of the se ridge, I think we will revert to the same kind of pattern we've seen recently...with low pressures cutting to our west in the medium range, and quite possibly a return to a winter pattern last half of March. The airport has got to be very close to my seasonal snow prediction of 24 inches, and I've seen others on here reporting similar amounts for the season. The thing is, I just don't think we can close the books on this winter. We've seen too many seasons where we get a late "rogue" snow in the season. NAO is holding steady in the weak positive phase and overall, this winter has been pretty steady with a stable pattern...we haven't seen a high number of significant pattern changes overall, although, I know some of us have felt like we've gone long stretches of rather mundane weather. I'm only saying this because I see a lot of references to this being the last snow. I can't rule out some severe weather in March, but overall, I think March is going to be cold and rainy relative to norms. That means we have to keep an eye on these close cutting storms for backend winter events, and the possibility of secondary development. That includes the late week systems as well. The bottom line....I don't see a real flip to a spring pattern with severe weather imminent, but rather a gradual one, and until then, additional snow is a possibility. Conceptually I think we are in for a string of wet (active) cold winters, which sort of shows my cards on thoughts for next winter, absent the analysis on the ongoing late summer/fall patterns. I realize my discussion borders on climate. Bottom line, more snow is possible this winter with a gradual turn to Spring. As for severe, can't rule it out in March, but I'm thinking the meat of our severe will be in April and May...and I think it will be much more active than we've seen recently. For the record, yes, I'm hoping for a cool summer (that's not a prediction). This long term solar minima could coincide with a return to winters that many of us have seen in our past childhoods (I'm not referring to just the 11 year cycle, but rather to the longer term cycle (a reincarnation of the Dalton Minima?) - I'm going to have to see if I'm related to that guy for which the minima is named after. Just putting my non-scientific thoughts out there for now. For the record, I'm aware that one of us did a study on correlation of sunspots with seasonal winter patterns. If I have time, I'd like to dig deeper into that sort of thing.
I find this topic interesting as well. Sorry in advance for the long commentary below.
The 11yr solar cycle causes a variation in total solar irradiance of about 1.0 W/m^2 give or take. However, TSI is incident radiation at a 90 degree angle so to get the integrated radiation received over the whole surface you have to take the cross sectional area of a sphere which ends up being 1/4 (there is some clever geometry in play here to get this reduction value). So the total variation is actually about ±0.25 W/m^2. That might seem small, but it's actually a decent radiative forcing. Afterall, if all of this power perturbation were to last a full year and the integrated energy went into the atmosphere and only the atmosphere it would be enough to change the temperature by about ±0.8C. In reality though there is an enormous amount of thermal inertia in the geosphere. 90% or more of the radiative forcing perturbations are buffered by the hydrosphere. And the hydrosphere provides an enormous thermal buffer that fights tropospheric temperature changes. This is because the hydrosphere has over 1000x the thermal mass of the atmosphere. This inertia takes about 20-50 years to equilibriate with the troposphere which is much longer than a single solar cycle.
And just to put this ±0.25 W/m^2 into perspective consider that volcanic eruptions can easily put more radiative forcing on the geosphere than the Sun. For example, the VEI 6 eruption of Pinatubo in 1991 put a peak radiative forcing on the geosphere of -2.5 W/m^2 or about 10x as much as solar peak-to-trough. Though that was a very short lived event since SO2 essentially precipitates out within a few months and a solar cycle down/cool phase lasts 5-6 years.
Another way to put this ±0.25 W/m^2 into perspective is to consider the change in forcing provided by CO2. The concentration increased from about 384 ppm to 409 ppm in the last 11 years (about the length of solar cycle 25). This provided a radiative forcing of 5.35 * ln(409/384) = +0.34 W/m^2 which more than offsets the peak-to-trough solar forcing of -0.25 W/m^2. So what's happening right now is the up/warm solar phase puts a combined 0.25 + 0.17 = +0.42 W/m^2 forcing on the geosphere and the down/cool solar phase only puts a combined -0.25 + 0.17 = -0.08 W/m^2 forcing on the geosphere. And again, note the up/down phases each individually last 5-6 years with the combined up+down cycle lasting 10-12 years.
And yet another way to put this ±0.25 W/m^2 into perspective is to consider the current energy imbalance on the geosphere. The heat uptake perturbation is about +10e21 joules/year right now. This is 10e21 joules / 31557600 seconds / 510e12 m^2 = +0.62 W/m^2. So the entire solar cycle swing (peak-to-trough or trough-to-peak) represents less than 50% of the current energy imbalance.
Another topic of consideration are the possibilities that other solar properties like the magnetic field could indirectly effect seasonal weather. As of right now the consensus is that solar radiation is the one and only solar property that matters for seasonal and decadal climate.
I guess my point is this...solar cycle forcing is actually pretty large on a power perturbation basis, but because the hydrosphere provides so much thermal inertia the troposphere barely responds before the phase changes direction every 5-6 years.
And when it's all said and done the question of most importance to us is whether there is any correlation between solar cycles and a "good" winter in St. Louis. Most of us subjectively define "good" as years with a few more inches of snowfall above the climatological average. I've looked at this pretty closely and based on my own research the answer is no. The R^2 correlations between St. Louis snowfall and solar activity is so low that snowfall and solar activity are close to a purely random distribution. In fact, almost all seasonally predictable climate indices have close to zero correlation with snowfall in St. Louis. There are definitive correlations on a decadal basis though including grand solar cycles (like the Dalton or Maunder Minimums and the Modern Maximum), but that is a topic for long term climatology and has less yearly nevermind seasonal relevance.
Now that's what I call analysis.
Colorado Springs, CO
B.S. Atmospheric Science - Mizzou
Meteorology Intern @ Fox 2 KTVI-STL [Summer 2012]
Weekend Meteorologist @ ABC17 KMIZ-TV [Nov '17 - Mar '19]
Meteorologist/MMJ @ ABC 17 KMIZ-TV [Mar '19 - Dec '20]
Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 3, 2019 22:46:57 GMT -6
GFS and FV3 GFS are now bringing the threat of Severe storms very close to the I-70 corridor next weekend. While only one cycle its something to watch. Looks like impressive dynamics as well which could result into a quasi-linear squall line and or HP Supercells with all modes possible including tornadoes especially near the triple point which is shown to cross from the metro into southern Illinois. 60 degree dewpoints do penetrate the metro as well even if briefly but mostly 50s which is still a notable uptick from 12-18Z runs.
Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 3, 2019 22:54:00 GMT -6
Extremism is a plague on this forum, and while I've certainly not helped the problem throughout my 'posting life' on this forum/community, I'm not the only one and the trend has only got worse every year. Seems like since 2014 things have gone south in regards of the overall community. Not everyone but the Community as a whole in general. Might be time for some 'house cleaning' both physically with banning and or warning the worse offending members) and psychologically as a community as a whole. We need to tend back to our roots of what this group was about and why it's deviated so much overtime.
Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 3, 2019 23:02:46 GMT -6
GGEM looking more realistic this run with the Saturday/Sunday system but an open trough rather than a closed one so severe threat stays well south and the system as a whole is weaker and more progressive.
Location: Unincorporated West Belleville @ Stookey Township between IL Route 15 and Old St. Louis Rd/Route 13.
There hasn't been an increase in "extremism". I can count about 2 people that do exaggerations or change things constantly, or whatever. We have hardly added any new people in the last 5 years. It's the same ones for the most part.
One cold morning. Once again my thermometer says 0. But I'm sure it's too cold like always. But I did see Lambert is 3. So thats extreme for march in any book
Lee CO, AL sheriff is reporting 23 dead, which may still rise, from the tornado yesterday near the town of Beauregard. So far this single tornado has been deadlier than the entire 2018 and 2016 years and is the deadliest tornado since the 2013 Moore OK tornado which killed 24.
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 4, 2019 7:42:54 GMT -6
Bdgwx, rather than reply directly to you, i thght id just start a new thread because im on my phone. So what youre saying is, theres a chance? 😂
Thank you for recapping your analysis. I wonder if any consideration has been given wrt where in 11 year solar cycle we are at...and also volcanic activity, enso stage, and other longer term teleconnections. Your analysis makes it tough to counter with a cold and snowy winter based purely on solar cycle. One needs more variables as your analysis points out. Oftentimes i think the impact is felt in eurasia first, then in north america later and in fact, we could be a year past the minima for our "good winter"...or maybe we get the cold temps one winter and the next winter we get modified temps but with more snow. I certainly dont think solar cycle and winter is a one to one relationship and your analysis confirms that. I also think the solar radiation and world temperatures dont represent a direct causal relationship, but rather something more subtle that causes a disruption in the jetstream. Keep up the good work. I hope you take this as agreement with your findings.
One cold morning. Once again my thermometer says 0. But I'm sure it's too cold like always. But I did see Lambert is 3. So thats extreme for march in any book
0 is trustworthy and consistent. I would trust that. I had 3 in my car at 6 am. Especially if you are in a rural setting.
Dardenne Prairie, MO 63368
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Jan 26, 2023 9:16:44 GMT -6
bellevillewxguy: The RAP has seen the light! 21Z run is back on course for a major winter storm for almost the entire area!
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ajd446: Is it me or does it appear the 21z sref had a decent shift NW.
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Jan 27, 2021 11:47:41 GMT -6
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Dec 31, 2020 9:15:10 GMT -6
snowday: What is the approximate timing of the Wednesday system? Are we talking rush/evening or later in the night - like after 8pm?
Jan 20, 2020 13:49:37 GMT -6
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Feb 25, 2019 2:31:00 GMT -6
grizzlebeard: I'll put this here since it rarely rolls over: Please include your location in your profile, or identify your location when posting observations. You saying it is 20 and raining doesn't help if we don't know where you are. That is all.
Feb 7, 2019 13:44:40 GMT -6
giarC71: Hello...this could be historic. And those models of 16 inches or 19 inches.. coild be real..
Jan 11, 2019 18:04:52 GMT -6
