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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 5, 2019 11:35:41 GMT -6
Boy gfs upped the strength on this weekend storm Yeah 980mb SLP over DSM... |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 5, 2019 11:44:11 GMT -6
Scariest thing I've seen in awhile  Just kidding Beaker I gotta say...that turned into a fun night. I was definitely feeling a little scattered and beside myself in that pic. Maybe even a little schizophrenic? |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 5, 2019 11:53:51 GMT -6
Lol...made me feel like i wanted to set stuff on fire.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 5, 2019 12:06:59 GMT -6
Boy gfs upped the strength on this weekend storm Yeah 980mb SLP over DSM... Gonna be another big wind maker as well. |
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Post by cozpregon on Mar 5, 2019 12:17:15 GMT -6
Yeah 980mb SLP over DSM... Gonna be another big wind maker as well. GFS is tapping into the 55-60kt wind
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Post by ajd446 on Mar 5, 2019 12:26:16 GMT -6
With snow melt and heavy rain I do not like to see winds that strong. Trees will be loose
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 5, 2019 13:00:59 GMT -6
Euro has some gusty backside winds Saturday night into Sunday, but not like the GFS
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 5, 2019 13:10:40 GMT -6
Updated seasonal snowfall maps. I'd say it's been a good winter for the NW counties and western metro   |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 5, 2019 13:29:29 GMT -6
EURO looks scary for Severe Storms on Day 9-10 13th-14th.  |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Mar 5, 2019 15:10:31 GMT -6
Chance for flurries tomorrow night but probably not.
Better chance for light snow/sleet/graupel Thursday night/friday morning for the NE 2/3rds of the metro.
Best chance for just snow is the NE 1/2.
Can't rule out a little glaze. But the column is below zero.
The snow is dependent on sufficient lift and saturation of the dgz.
The NAM is marginal. But has been printing out about 0.1" qpf right along the river to the East.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Mar 5, 2019 15:14:41 GMT -6
Hope everyone took this winter in.
Because we might have 2 or 3 in a row with limited chances.
The last Winters with this many chances and actual days with flakes were 13-14 and sometime around 2010-11.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Mar 5, 2019 15:40:24 GMT -6
If we actually had a -NAO we would be looking at more snow.
Maybe next year the nao will finally spend time in negative territory.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 5, 2019 15:53:39 GMT -6
Chance for flurries tomorrow night but probably not. Better chance for light snow/sleet/graupel Thursday night/friday morning for the NE 2/3rds of the metro. Best chance for just snow is the NE 1/2. Can't rule out a little glaze. But the column is below zero. The snow is dependent on sufficient lift and saturation of the dgz. The NAM is marginal. But has been printing out about 0.1" qpf right along the river to the East. EPS is also printing out 0.1" along/NE of the MO river. OP run still very stingy though. GFS was obviously overdone and too far N...the GEM has been consistent with that system. Impacts will be limited with marginal surface temps though. |
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Post by mosue56 on Mar 5, 2019 16:41:08 GMT -6
Maybe we’ll have turned the corner into spring after Thursday!!!!
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 5, 2019 17:51:35 GMT -6
Hope everyone took this winter in. Because we might have 2 or 3 in a row with limited chances. The last Winters with this many chances and actual days with flakes were 13-14 and sometime around 2010-11. Eh, they typically run in 3s. But, in my case, 4s. Albeit this winter was better than last. Now, for the northern half of the US, this has been a pretty good season. However, only sustained seasonal snow has been in the north woods. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 5, 2019 18:00:55 GMT -6
Hope everyone took this winter in. Because we might have 2 or 3 in a row with limited chances. The last Winters with this many chances and actual days with flakes were 13-14 and sometime around 2010-11. Eh, they typically run in 3s. But, in my case, 4s. Albeit this winter was better than last. Now, for the northern half of the US, this has been a pretty good season. However, only sustained seasonal snow has been in the north woods. I give it about a 70% chance of snowfall between 10 and 26 inches next year. The chances of pulling a replica winter to this winter out of a proverbial hat from a snowfall perspective aren’t that bad. Now, a repeat of that huge regional 10-16 inch storm is unlikely. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 5, 2019 19:12:35 GMT -6
So much for ice skating today...ice was only about an inch thick. Amazing the difference in the sun's radiation...if it were January it would have frozen solid.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 5, 2019 19:26:01 GMT -6
Maybe we’ll have turned the corner into spring after Thursday!!!! More snow is likely this winter, imo. Possibly 3rd or 4th week of march. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 5, 2019 19:28:26 GMT -6
Eh, they typically run in 3s. But, in my case, 4s. Albeit this winter was better than last. Now, for the northern half of the US, this has been a pretty good season. However, only sustained seasonal snow has been in the north woods. I give it about a 70% chance of snowfall between 10 and 26 inches next year. The chances of pulling a replica winter to this winter out of a proverbial hat from a snowfall perspective aren’t that bad. Now, a repeat of that huge regional 10-16 inch storm is unlikely. The thinking i have currently is that 26 is low...but yes you are correct that statistically we have 70 % of our annual snow amts in that range. I think we will see yet another snowy winter...possibly more snowy than this past winter...but we will have to see how the offseason pattern sets up. Having a pronounced se ridge and a positive nao so dominant after it looked like the nao was going to tank this past fall...i think the chances of that hsppening again are low. But lets see how enso holds. Some of our snowiest winters follow a prior winter el nino. |
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 5, 2019 21:05:45 GMT -6
Not really weather related, but astronomy and meteorology often go hand in hand. For those who have lost track we have 8 official planets and 5 official dwarf planets in our solar system now. There are 6 dwarf planet candidates in the queue and a few other pre-candidates including FarFarOut which is even further away than just FarOut. And evidence continues to pile on that Planet Nine exists. It was reported last week that some scientists believe the probability of it's existence exceeds 99% now.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 5, 2019 21:50:30 GMT -6
Not really weather related, but astronomy and meteorology often go hand in hand. For those who have lost track we have 8 official planets and 5 official dwarf planets in our solar system now. There are 6 dwarf planet candidates in the queue and a few other pre-candidates including FarFarOut which is even further away than just FarOut. And evidence continues to pile on that Planet Nine exists. It was reported last week that some scientists believe the probability of it's existence exceeds 99% now. I haven't really ever delved too deep into astronomy...what is it that makes a planet a planet again? Having it's own moon? Or maybe that it rotates around the sun? |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 5, 2019 21:51:29 GMT -6
Chance for flurries tomorrow night but probably not. Better chance for light snow/sleet/graupel Thursday night/friday morning for the NE 2/3rds of the metro. Best chance for just snow is the NE 1/2. Can't rule out a little glaze. But the column is below zero. The snow is dependent on sufficient lift and saturation of the dgz. The NAM is marginal. But has been printing out about 0.1" qpf right along the river to the East. EPS is also printing out 0.1" along/NE of the MO river. OP run still very stingy though. GFS was obviously overdone and too far N...the GEM has been consistent with that system. Impacts will be limited with marginal surface temps though. 00z gfs and fv3 have the accumulating snow in the same spot as 3 days ago. Sure it dropped a couple tenths as we have gotten closer, but it has been remarkably consistent. Nam agrees. |
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Post by mchafin on Mar 5, 2019 23:17:56 GMT -6
Skied at Park City, UT today. Awesome. Snow falling now - heaven.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Mar 5, 2019 23:34:18 GMT -6
I give it about a 70% chance of snowfall between 10 and 26 inches next year. The chances of pulling a replica winter to this winter out of a proverbial hat from a snowfall perspective aren’t that bad. Now, a repeat of that huge regional 10-16 inch storm is unlikely. The thinking i have currently is that 26 is low...but yes you are correct that statistically we have 70 % of our annual snow amts in that range. I think we will see yet another snowy winter...possibly more snowy than this past winter...but we will have to see how the offseason pattern sets up. Having a pronounced se ridge and a positive nao so dominant after it looked like the nao was going to tank this past fall...i think the chances of that hsppening again are low. But lets see how enso holds. Some of our snowiest winters follow a prior winter el nino. The Predominant negative NAO vanished after the 2012 summer sea ice melt season. Essentially when that pool of below normal ssts in the NW Atlantic started to become persistent. We are starting to become due if such a thing can exist to have a predominantly negative nao winter |
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 6, 2019 0:24:14 GMT -6
The thinking i have currently is that 26 is low...but yes you are correct that statistically we have 70 % of our annual snow amts in that range. I think we will see yet another snowy winter...possibly more snowy than this past winter...but we will have to see how the offseason pattern sets up. Having a pronounced se ridge and a positive nao so dominant after it looked like the nao was going to tank this past fall...i think the chances of that hsppening again are low. But lets see how enso holds. Some of our snowiest winters follow a prior winter el nino. The Predominant negative NAO vanished after the 2012 summer sea ice melt season. Essentially when that pool of below normal ssts in the NW Atlantic started to become persistent. We are starting to become due if such a thing can exist to have a predominantly negative nao winter I think we’ve seen stretches of a -NAO since 2012, but it hasn’t been during the winter months. If I had a plethora of time, I’d look into the patterns more to see if there was a cyclical rotation to it, or perhaps what the drivers are/were. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 6, 2019 2:05:22 GMT -6
Skied at Park City, UT today. Awesome. Snow falling now - heaven. I follow one of the SLC TV stations on Facebook. They have had some incredible amounts of snow the last 6 weeks or so. The flip side is they've had some avalanches, too |
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Post by Tilawn on Mar 6, 2019 6:09:03 GMT -6
0° Monday Morning
6° Tuesday Morning
8° Wednesday Morning
You’d think it was January!!
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 6, 2019 6:25:19 GMT -6
This cold snap has been much more impressive than that 5 minute one we had with the pv. It's lasted much longer, and we actually had snow on the ground.
Not as much wind though.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 6, 2019 8:55:53 GMT -6
This cold snap has been much more impressive than that 5 minute one we had with the pv. It's lasted much longer, and we actually had snow on the ground. Not as much wind though. It also wasn't 10 below with no snow cover. The duration doesn't take away from the intensity. But this is definitely one impressive arctic outbreak for March. |
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Post by yypc on Mar 6, 2019 8:59:55 GMT -6
Skied at Park City, UT today. Awesome. Snow falling now - heaven. I follow one of the SLC TV stations on Facebook. They have had some incredible amounts of snow the last 6 weeks or so. The flip side is they've had some avalanches, too They got 6 feet in Alta/Snowbird during the week I was there at the end of January. Never saw anything like it in my life, and probably never will again. |
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