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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 7, 2019 16:38:26 GMT -6
18z gfs shows that secondary low setup I mentioned for late next week. Obviously, it needs to be more wrapped up to draw the cold air in, but you get the idea. Hopefully, this is the start of a trend as I would love one more measurable snow. It’s been like a month since we had anything up north. That's always a tough situation this time of year betting on secondary development because it usually takes a wound up system to pull down enough cold air but often a strong storm will overwhelm the flow and squash any secondary development. I wouldn't bet on it but it's worth watching. That storm still concerns me about severe weather more so than Saturday...it has the look of a forced squall line setup with a wind and quick hitting tornado threat to me...given enough instability. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 7, 2019 16:42:35 GMT -6
You can see the drizzly looking moisture return on radar coming out of the south and the mid-level returns pretty well staying on the IL side...not a good setup for snow unless another batch of mid-level moisture arrives.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 7, 2019 16:43:59 GMT -6
Grauple/snow in edwardsville
Car temp is reading 38*
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 7, 2019 17:44:50 GMT -6
California is almost completely drought free  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 7, 2019 17:47:06 GMT -6
California is almost completely drought free Just saw that this was the wettest winter on record for the US. |
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Post by scmhack on Mar 7, 2019 17:58:59 GMT -6
California is almost completely drought free Just saw that this was the wettest winter on record for the US. Yep. Here come the floods. |
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Post by mosue56 on Mar 7, 2019 18:06:02 GMT -6
Southern Colorado is in real need of any precip!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 7, 2019 19:06:01 GMT -6
18z gfs shows that secondary low setup I mentioned for late next week. Obviously, it needs to be more wrapped up to draw the cold air in, but you get the idea. Hopefully, this is the start of a trend as I would love one more measurable snow. It’s been like a month since we had anything up north. That's always a tough situation this time of year betting on secondary development because it usually takes a wound up system to pull down enough cold air but often a strong storm will overwhelm the flow and squash any secondary development. I wouldn't bet on it but it's worth watching. That storm still concerns me about severe weather more so than Saturday...it has the look of a forced squall line setup with a wind and quick hitting tornado threat to me...given enough instability. Looks like about a 10% chance on the 18z gefs |
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 7, 2019 20:15:50 GMT -6
That's always a tough situation this time of year betting on secondary development because it usually takes a wound up system to pull down enough cold air but often a strong storm will overwhelm the flow and squash any secondary development. I wouldn't bet on it but it's worth watching. That storm still concerns me about severe weather more so than Saturday...it has the look of a forced squall line setup with a wind and quick hitting tornado threat to me...given enough instability. Looks like about a 10% chance on the 18z gefs So you’re saying there’s a chance... GFS has been okay at this range sniffing out situations like this. There’s not really a strong jet diving down the backside to get the secondary going. It could be right, but it could very well be wrong. There’s quite a bit of weather to get through before that storm comes into focus. |
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Post by landscaper on Mar 7, 2019 20:37:42 GMT -6
Light snow flurries in Wentzville melting on contact but still some light snow. It looks like the models bring some light precipitation in overnight.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Mar 7, 2019 20:39:04 GMT -6
Have light snow here.
The models way way overdone this
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Post by cozpregon on Mar 7, 2019 20:50:28 GMT -6
Have to think 60mph winds are in play on Saturday.
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Post by Tilawn on Mar 7, 2019 21:00:53 GMT -6
Flurries and drizzle 33°
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Mar 7, 2019 21:05:59 GMT -6
Almost moderate snow.
Visibility has dropped substantially
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Mar 7, 2019 21:09:30 GMT -6
Full on moderate snow.
Very good flake growth
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 7, 2019 21:15:38 GMT -6
Snow in Mascoutah. Good night
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Mar 7, 2019 21:24:30 GMT -6
Snow was picking up when the train came. Was hoping to get under the green blob. Oh well  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 7, 2019 21:26:37 GMT -6
Some legit snow in Belleville right now. Had some nice mood snow on the drive home from edwardsville
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 7, 2019 21:35:06 GMT -6
Elevated surfaces are beginning to get covered here
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Post by ndolan387 on Mar 7, 2019 21:35:18 GMT -6
Snowing at a respectable rate at St. Louis University.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Mar 7, 2019 21:36:24 GMT -6
Yeah coming down really good
Almost a heavy snow
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 7, 2019 21:38:03 GMT -6
Dusting.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Mar 7, 2019 21:38:29 GMT -6
Yeah coming down really good Almost a heavy snow Safe to say it's legit heavy snow. Visibility has plummeted |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 7, 2019 21:43:07 GMT -6
Ya it’s not far from SN+
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Mar 7, 2019 21:44:13 GMT -6
It's barely moving.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Mar 7, 2019 21:48:30 GMT -6
Lol that band literally developed 5 miles north of me and
Is moving north
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 7, 2019 21:53:59 GMT -6
Have to think 60mph winds are in play on Saturday. A bit surprised this isn't mentioned in the AFD... Latest GFS shows 60kt winds at the top of a mixed boundary layer Saturday. 50kts at 1km. Sure this may be contingent on how much sun and warming we get, but the potential is there for 50+mph at least I would think. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 7, 2019 21:58:09 GMT -6
Already got about a half inch already from this quickie little event and still coming down.
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Post by ajd446 on Mar 7, 2019 22:00:47 GMT -6
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Post by cozpregon on Mar 7, 2019 22:01:14 GMT -6
Have to think 60mph winds are in play on Saturday. A bit surprised this isn't mentioned in the AFD... - Latest GFS shows 60kt winds at the top of a mixed boundary layer Saturday. 50kts at 1km. Sure this may be contingent on how much sun and warming we get, but the potential is there for 50+mph at least I would think. The lapse rate is close to 9*C/KM... unilateral wind up the column- there's nothing to stop it
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