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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 7, 2019 1:35:58 GMT -6
Composite radar is lighting up over the metro
Doubt anything breaks through though
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 7, 2019 1:51:02 GMT -6
Snowing nicely, 20 miles to my north, and way up in the clouds.  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 7, 2019 2:05:25 GMT -6
06z NAM drops a half inch of snow in the metro tomorrow night
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 7, 2019 2:26:15 GMT -6
06z NAM drops a half inch of snow in the metro tomorrow night The SREF plumes are at .13 Bring it! |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Mar 7, 2019 4:46:16 GMT -6
The euro still has convective snow shower this morning
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Post by ajd446 on Mar 7, 2019 7:34:42 GMT -6
Boy models trended more.severe like Saturday. I would expect the slight risk to. Be pulled north
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 7, 2019 8:15:51 GMT -6
Flakes starting to break through in SPI
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Post by lizard7151971 on Mar 7, 2019 8:54:44 GMT -6
I'm seeing Very light flakes here in Litchfield. I had the look at a tree to see them falling. At this rate a dusting will be hard to come by.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 7, 2019 9:18:13 GMT -6
Few flakes breaking through here as well...dry air definitely ate this one up on the S edge.
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Post by REB on Mar 7, 2019 9:30:04 GMT -6
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Post by STGOutdoors on Mar 7, 2019 9:44:46 GMT -6
I'm more surprised that there's anything qualifying as a "mount" in Illinois. That includes "Mount" Vernon. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 7, 2019 10:24:46 GMT -6
I'm more surprised that there's anything qualifying as a "mount" in Illinois. That includes "Mount" Vernon. Not much of a mountain, but this area is extremely scenic and a great place to visit. This is very close to where we go to pick morels every spring. www.summitpost.org/charles-mound/152963 |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 7, 2019 10:49:50 GMT -6
Hope you're enjoying it, maddog. So close, yet so far way...the misses continue to pile up.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Mar 7, 2019 11:01:03 GMT -6
3K Nam has supercells in SEMO, southern IL, and NE Arkansas Sat. afternoon. I assume if things can destabilize from the morning round of storms it could get nasty.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 7, 2019 11:03:50 GMT -6
3K Nam has supercells in SEMO, southern IL, and NE Arkansas Sat. afternoon. I assume if things can destabilize from the morning round of storms it could get nasty. Yeah, the NAM is aggressive in pulling the warm front north up to about I-64 or even a bit north of that. Timing isn't the best though and I'm doubtful that much destabilization will occur with widespread cloudiness and precip within the warm sector. |
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Post by rb1108 on Mar 7, 2019 11:12:35 GMT -6
3K Nam has supercells in SEMO, southern IL, and NE Arkansas Sat. afternoon. I assume if things can destabilize from the morning round of storms it could get nasty. Yeah, the NAM is aggressive in pulling the warm front north up to about I-64 or even a bit north of that. Timing isn't the best though and I'm doubtful that much destabilization will occur with widespread cloudiness and precip within the warm sector. Isn't the NAM outside its window of reliability anyway? Why are we even looking at it? |
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 7, 2019 12:06:33 GMT -6
Hope you're enjoying it, maddog. So close, yet so far way...the misses continue to pile up. I can’t get a 3+” snow to save my life. This one had so much potential until it didn’t. The jet is moving too fast for anything of substance. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 7, 2019 12:11:35 GMT -6
Hope you're enjoying it, maddog. So close, yet so far way...the misses continue to pile up. I can’t get a 3+” snow to save my life. This one had so much potential until it didn’t. The jet is moving too fast for anything of substance. These fgen driven bands always weaken considerably as they move eastward from the high plains. That's why I was very skeptical of the super beefy GFS solution |
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Post by cozpregon on Mar 7, 2019 12:33:09 GMT -6
I feel like mwitt here trying to see how the winds are going to be on Saturday... and I know the FV3 usually is extreme, but the mixing up to 700mb and the steep lapse rate tapping well into the 55-60kt wind after fropa Saturday afternoon would be interesting.  |
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 7, 2019 12:33:48 GMT -6
MJO is forecasted to move back into phase 3 after a brief tapdance in phase 4. Phase 3 correlates to a farther east based orientation of the cold. Phase 4 gives us the brief warmup that we will see next week.
I think the the second half of March will produce at least one 4”+ snowstorm for someone in the area.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 7, 2019 12:36:36 GMT -6
Late next week after a strong cutter to the west, there is some potential for a secondary low and snow.
Unlikely yes, but there are several gefs members that look decent. After that, there is about a week where the northwest flow keeps temps cold enough for snow.
Then, spring is in and snow is officially done.
Long story short, two big rainers followed by a week of winter potential (albeit low odds), then spring.
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 7, 2019 13:38:35 GMT -6
Late next week after a strong cutter to the west, there is some potential for a secondary low and snow. Unlikely yes, but there are several gefs members that look decent. After that, there is about a week where the northwest flow keeps temps cold enough for snow. Then, spring is in and snow is officially done. Long story short, two big rainers followed by a week of winter potential (albeit low odds), then spring. I saw that on the GFS as well. I will also second the potential with it. Matches the teleconnections well. It would be really cool to have bookend 4”+ storms. |
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Post by snowjunky on Mar 7, 2019 13:59:09 GMT -6
No more snow. My snowblower is broken and I am not replacing until next winter.
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Post by cardsnweather on Mar 7, 2019 14:06:34 GMT -6
No more snow. My snowblower is broken and I am not replacing until next winter. Eh, you don't need a snowblower for a late March snow. It'll be gone within 2 days. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 7, 2019 14:18:42 GMT -6
No more snow. My snowblower is broken and I am not replacing until next winter. Eh, you don't need a snowblower for a late March snow. It'll be gone within 2 days. I dunno, we get some pretty big snows in March...bring it on! |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 7, 2019 14:41:20 GMT -6
Eh, you don't need a snowblower for a late March snow. It'll be gone within 2 days. I dunno, we get some pretty big snows in March...bring it on! And when we get them they are frequently the wet, heavy cement ones that are killer to shovel by hand. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Mar 7, 2019 16:06:42 GMT -6
Radar should be blowing up with light precipitation.
Should be light snow in The immediate metro to the NE
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 7, 2019 16:22:42 GMT -6
Radar should be blowing up with light precipitation. Should be light snow in The immediate metro to the NE I've had some sporadic flurries so far. Models were showing a fairly quick loss of mid-level moisture/cloud ice co-incident with the arrival of the better low-level moisture return/WAA. So we might get some seeder feeder going for a bit but it might turn to just rain or drizzle if we loose cloud ice. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 7, 2019 16:28:42 GMT -6
18z gfs shows that secondary low setup I mentioned for late next week.
Obviously, it needs to be more wrapped up to draw the cold air in, but you get the idea.
Hopefully, this is the start of a trend as I would love one more measurable snow.
It’s been like a month since we had anything up north.
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Post by ajd446 on Mar 7, 2019 16:30:05 GMT -6
I am seeing a few straggler flurries on umsl campus. Not much temp 39
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