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Post by STGOutdoors on Mar 8, 2019 15:30:38 GMT -6
I see that SPC has updated and I'm now on the northern edge of the enhanced risk.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 8, 2019 16:15:58 GMT -6
Any chance of hailers with the lead batch of storms along the warm front tomorrow morning? Ya its possible. Models have some decent elevated instability in the area tomorrow morning
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 8, 2019 17:25:15 GMT -6
I may end up in the thick of tomorrow's severe outbreak. I am on the road picking up my son at Xavier for spring break. We are heading to Louisville tonight and will hit the Louisville Slugger museum in the AM....then on the road to head home...through southern Indiana and southern Illinois.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 8, 2019 19:24:58 GMT -6
Any chance of hailers with the lead batch of storms along the warm front tomorrow morning? Ya its possible. Models have some decent elevated instability in the area tomorrow morning
Thank goodness for that near-surface inversion...look at that sickle shaped hodograph!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 8, 2019 20:47:59 GMT -6
0Z NAM says St. Louis Metro and points southeast are the Bullseye. If we can slow this system down a couple more hours we could be in trouble with a conditional tornado threat along with large hail damaging winds. 60 degree dewpoints and mid 60s surface temps make it just to the immediate metro and system appears stronger as well.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 8, 2019 20:51:46 GMT -6
I really think the prime zone will be from Perryville...over to the Ohio River...and points south. That doesn't eliminate the STL metro... but it remains a very iffy proposition based on the questionable moisture return and resulting destablization.
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Post by cozpregon on Mar 8, 2019 20:57:14 GMT -6
0Z NAM says St. Louis Metro and points southeast are the Bullseye. If we can slow this system down a couple more hours we could be in trouble with a conditional tornado threat along with large hail damaging winds. 60 degree dewpoints and mid 60s surface temps make it just to the immediate metro and system appears stronger as well. If the immediate metro is 80 miles south of St Louis... you are correct.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Mar 8, 2019 21:15:27 GMT -6
I really think the prime zone will be from Perryville...over to the Ohio River...and points south. That doesn't eliminate the STL metro... but it remains a very iffy proposition based on the questionable moisture return and resulting destablization. Booo! It needs to be further north!
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Post by perryville on Mar 8, 2019 22:02:47 GMT -6
I see that SPC has updated and I'm now on the northern edge of the enhanced risk. What kind of timeline are we looking at?
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Post by perryville on Mar 8, 2019 22:13:32 GMT -6
Paducah NWS put out a pretty good timeline. Looks like hail/gusty winds in the morning and a tornado threat in the afternoon. Could be a long day of severe weather.
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 8, 2019 22:29:52 GMT -6
GFS has winds ripping at 50kts just off the surface in the dry slot tomorrow evening. Still looking like 50mph (or greater) gusts will be possible in the metro.
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Post by perryville on Mar 8, 2019 23:15:22 GMT -6
Reed Timmer will be in the Missouri boot heel or far southern Illinois tomorrow.🤔
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Post by cozpregon on Mar 8, 2019 23:33:40 GMT -6
I would put the over/under at 56mph at STL.
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Post by Tilawn on Mar 9, 2019 7:17:46 GMT -6
Just got 1/2” of rain in 12 minutes
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padlur
Junior Forecaster
Ballwin(by the golf course)
Posts: 304
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Post by padlur on Mar 9, 2019 7:38:19 GMT -6
Do say I have missed waking up to low rumbles and rain falling on the roof
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Post by STGOutdoors on Mar 9, 2019 8:00:02 GMT -6
Do say I have missed waking up to low rumbles and rain falling on the roof I agree. Haven't had thunder like this in months. I don't there there's any way things clear out to allow for severe stuff up here. This is a huge area of rain that has to come through.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 9, 2019 8:10:10 GMT -6
Thinking the severe threat is pretty low for most of the area today...this wall of water is going to stabilize things and the warm front clearly isn't going to make it this far north as the system continues to occlude and pinch off the warm sector. The 3km WRF develops a line of low-topped storms this afternoon with about 250j/kg CAPE so there may be a couple stronger storms if those develop. HRRR isn't too jazzed about that so it's questionable if anything really develops behind this slug of deep moisture/convection.
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Post by dschreib on Mar 9, 2019 8:20:22 GMT -6
Foggy, with lightning.
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Mar 9, 2019 8:22:02 GMT -6
I may end up in the thick of tomorrow's severe outbreak. I am on the road picking up my son at Xavier for spring break. We are heading to Louisville tonight and will hit the Louisville Slugger museum in the AM....then on the road to head home...through southern Indiana and southern Illinois. The Louisville Slugger museum is great.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 9, 2019 8:33:25 GMT -6
The view from our hotel room...
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Post by ElburnDave on Mar 9, 2019 8:44:38 GMT -6
The view from our hotel room... Wow! That’s some fog, Chris!
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Post by rb1108 on Mar 9, 2019 8:46:57 GMT -6
Thinking the severe threat is pretty low for most of the area today...this wall of water is going to stabilize things and the warm front clearly isn't going to make it this far north as the system continues to occlude and pinch off the warm sector. The 3km WRF develops a line of low-topped storms this afternoon with about 250j/kg CAPE so there may be a couple stronger storms if those develop. HRRR isn't too jazzed about that so it's questionable if anything really develops behind this slug of deep moisture/convection. The bigger story may be the windstorm to come after.
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Post by perryville on Mar 9, 2019 8:47:12 GMT -6
Do say I have missed waking up to low rumbles and rain falling on the roof I agree. Haven't had thunder like this in months. I don't there there's any way things clear out to allow for severe stuff up here. This is a huge area of rain that has to come through. [ br] It looks like we will be clearing out after this last surge. Thunderstorms have gone severe near Little Rock. Am I looking at it incorrectly for Southeast Missouri?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Mar 9, 2019 9:03:47 GMT -6
I agree. Haven't had thunder like this in months. I don't there there's any way things clear out to allow for severe stuff up here. This is a huge area of rain that has to come through. [ br] It looks like we will be clearing out after this last surge. Thunderstorms have gone severe near Little Rock. Am I looking at it incorrectly for Southeast Missouri? Bootheel maybe but there's just no time to destabilize for us. After the big batch of rain moves out around noon or so, a few small storms may still fire along the boundary but there just won't be much energy to work with. That's how I see this going.
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 9, 2019 9:03:55 GMT -6
It's snowing so hard where Chris is, it's all white. Crazy
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 9, 2019 9:04:59 GMT -6
Absolutely pouring. After this, the yard will be unwalkable again. Probably all week with more rain coming. Ugh.
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Post by perryville on Mar 9, 2019 9:20:11 GMT -6
60+ degree dewpoints in Cape Girardeau by Noon. Definitely a recipe for severe weather coming together down that way.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Mar 9, 2019 9:24:27 GMT -6
The overall pattern change across the United States is pretty astounding. The dry spell began in 2012 (earlier out west). We saw years of drought over the west and several years of dry sheared out systems as a result. Now almost the entire country is at or above normal in precip and also cooler as a result. It'll be interesting to see if the feedback loop continues and we stay in this pattern for several years, or Mother Nature corrects with a hot dry summer.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 9, 2019 9:38:57 GMT -6
It's snowing so hard where Chris is, it's all white. Crazy yeah. not sure why that imugr link is not working. I have trouble using it on my phone.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 9, 2019 9:41:05 GMT -6
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