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Post by dschreib on Feb 16, 2019 8:50:37 GMT -6
Didn't get quite as much as I thought we'd get yesterday, but it also seems more widespread that expected. A lot of places up north expected to be shutout got a couple inches, the south got it good. Even into IL got some. A nice decent snow for about everyone. Hmph. |
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Post by dschreib on Feb 16, 2019 8:51:55 GMT -6
Only an inch here.... missed yet another one to the south..... ...and north...
This one was a Corner T-shirt Special.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 16, 2019 8:55:06 GMT -6
Didn't get quite as much as I thought we'd get yesterday, but it also seems more widespread that expected. A lot of places up north expected to be shutout got a couple inches, the south got it good. Even into IL got some. A nice decent snow for about everyone. Hmph. Well, some places in IL don't count, Brighton too.  |
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 16, 2019 9:07:46 GMT -6
Same in Marthasville and Washington. you're making the big bucks this winter lol I’m losing a lot of sleep this winter!! 😂 and now the hunt is on to find some more bulk salt!! |
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Post by dschreib on Feb 16, 2019 9:22:41 GMT -6
Well, some places in IL don't count, Brighton too. I don't think I even got up to an inch out here. But the ground is white, which is more than I can say for about 99% of the past couple winters. Coffee in hand. Dog curled up. Kid home from college for the weekend. Youngest kid playing in the Supersectionals on Monday night. Not much to really complain about here...until the snow melts, temps rise, and the mud starts to work its way up through my driveway again. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 16, 2019 9:28:04 GMT -6
Icon with a big hit of ice Tuesday night
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 16, 2019 9:29:25 GMT -6
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Post by dschreib on Feb 16, 2019 9:36:12 GMT -6
Oh, my. I'd say that's about right. Why are snowfall maps X-rated? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 16, 2019 9:36:13 GMT -6
Saw a report of 5" in Park Hills...I'm surprised sleet didn't wipe that out down there...radar sure looked like a lot of melting was going on.
Looking back at this storm it was apparent the lead wave across the lakes was too slow getting out of the way causing the upper confluence to set up too far S...pretty close to Chicago...and dry air advection off the ridge was just too strong to be completely overcome up this way. If it wasn't for the frontogenesis(which the EURO picked up on very well, btw) and cold airmass we probably wouldn't have seen a flake here.
I'm still holding out some hope for a late season mauler...Tuesday might have potential for a few inches on the front end before switching over to sleet or ZR. If we can get the longwave pattern to shift just a bit east we could see some good storms. The jet continues to be active and buckled and there's plenty of cold air available...the -EPO is doing it's thing.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 16, 2019 9:42:21 GMT -6
Can definitely tell the effects of the higher sun angle in the melting process. If it's been clear the pavement dries off quickly
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 16, 2019 9:43:49 GMT -6
Saw a report of 5" in Park Hills...I'm surprised sleet didn't wipe that out down there...radar sure looked like a lot of melting was going on. Looking back at this storm it was apparent the lead wave across the lakes was too slow getting out of the way causing the upper confluence to set up too far S...pretty close to Chicago...and dry air advection off the ridge was just too strong to be completely overcome up this way. If it wasn't for the frontogenesis(which the EURO picked up on very well, btw) and cold airmass we probably wouldn't have seen a flake here. I'm still holding out some hope for a late season mauler...Tuesday might have potential for a few inches on the front end before switching over to sleet or ZR. If we can get the longwave pattern to shift just a bit east we could see some good storms. The jet continues to be active and buckled and there's plenty of cold air available...the -EPO is doing it's thing. We rode that sleet line all night but it was only all sleet for maybe an hour. Then the hampsters came back. It was really something when it would switch back to snow. Wish the videos I took would do it justice. I've seen that size flake before, but not that many of them and not for that long. There were two half hour periods where we got 1.0-1.5" in each. No lie, almost 3 inch per hour rates during those spells. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 16, 2019 9:53:26 GMT -6
Oh, my. I'd say that's about right. Why are snowfall maps X-rated? some "members" down in the nether regions got it good , while the 4-6" shaft was to your south. |
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 16, 2019 9:59:49 GMT -6
I’d say Tuesday of next week looks pretty good for I70 north. It looks like we stay on the “cold” side of the low, so as long as it doesn’t get too wrapped up, we should be good. That thing looks to take on a fairly gnarly negative tilt, so I could definitely see how it would screw just NW of the metro following up I55 all the way to the most corrupt city in the nation.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 16, 2019 10:00:28 GMT -6
Saw a report of 5" in Park Hills...I'm surprised sleet didn't wipe that out down there...radar sure looked like a lot of melting was going on. Looking back at this storm it was apparent the lead wave across the lakes was too slow getting out of the way causing the upper confluence to set up too far S...pretty close to Chicago...and dry air advection off the ridge was just too strong to be completely overcome up this way. If it wasn't for the frontogenesis(which the EURO picked up on very well, btw) and cold airmass we probably wouldn't have seen a flake here. I'm still holding out some hope for a late season mauler...Tuesday might have potential for a few inches on the front end before switching over to sleet or ZR. If we can get the longwave pattern to shift just a bit east we could see some good storms. The jet continues to be active and buckled and there's plenty of cold air available...the -EPO is doing it's thing. We rode that sleet line all night but it was only all sleet for maybe an hour. Then the hampsters came back. It was really something when it would switch back to snow. Wish the videos I took would do it justice. I've seen that size flake before, but not that many of them and not for that long. There were two half hour periods where we got 1.0-1.5" in each. No lie, almost 3 inch per hour rates during those spells. I don't doubt it...radar looked pretty bubbly down that way. Have to think the dry air advection helped to keep the sleet away. |
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socotpt
Weather Weenie
South County near 255 & Telegraph
Posts: 44 
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Post by socotpt on Feb 16, 2019 10:02:08 GMT -6
Just cleaned off the neighbor's driveway as well as mine. Less than 1/4 inch on the driveway and that was mostly sleet. Looks like maybe 3/4 inch of "stuff" in the yard. Much less than I expected down by JB.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 16, 2019 10:06:30 GMT -6
I’d say Tuesday of next week looks pretty good for I70 north. It looks like we stay on the “cold” side of the low, so as long as it doesn’t get too wrapped up, we should be good. That thing looks to take on a fairly gnarly negative tilt, so I could definitely see how it would screw just NW of the metro following up I55 all the way to the most corrupt city in the nation. Tuesday reminds me a bit of the storm in February 2013(?) where the upper low tracked to our NW but there was a very cold antecedent airmass in place with a strong ridge over the lakes and a potent hit of WAA brought several inches of thundersnow before changing over. That storm was more wrapped up though...but models show very strong WAA developing with this event. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 16, 2019 10:10:16 GMT -6
gfs is a rainer in the metro tuesday night. 34 degrees. gross.
If these 34 and rains would have been snow this winter, we would be on a record pace.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 16, 2019 10:13:02 GMT -6
GEM is a couple inches of snow, before rain
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 16, 2019 10:17:33 GMT -6
I’d say Tuesday of next week looks pretty good for I70 north. It looks like we stay on the “cold” side of the low, so as long as it doesn’t get too wrapped up, we should be good. That thing looks to take on a fairly gnarly negative tilt, so I could definitely see how it would screw just NW of the metro following up I55 all the way to the most corrupt city in the nation. Whoa DC isn’t even close to the path of the storm... |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 16, 2019 10:19:57 GMT -6
Oh, my. I'd say that's about right. Why are snowfall maps X-rated? some "members" down in the nether regions got it good , while the 4-6" shaft was to your south. Well done sir. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 16, 2019 10:21:18 GMT -6
fv3 is some snow, to ice to rain Tuesday night
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2019 10:25:52 GMT -6
Oh, my. I'd say that's about right. Why are snowfall maps X-rated? You had to go there. I was taking the high road thinking it looked more like the beak of a seagull or of a Crow. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 16, 2019 10:33:05 GMT -6
It definitely looks like a crow, lol.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 16, 2019 10:34:54 GMT -6
I think we could see a 1-2” snow to sleet to freezing rain to rain . It would be nice to see the precipitation breakout a little earlier than modeled while the high pressure is closer . This is definitely one of those the further north and west of the metro the more frozen . South and east more rain
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 16, 2019 10:41:24 GMT -6
If Lambert is at 20.8 then it only has to snow 3.2 inches for my 24 inch seasonal prediction to verify. Im confident that will happen based on what im seeing. Otherwise, im consistently over, predicting 9 inches last year and 6 tge year before.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2019 10:42:27 GMT -6
The strength of the high pressure over the Great Lakes to our northeast Tuesday does give me pause… I certainly wonder if the models aren't trying to push cold air out too fast and the combination of evaporative cooling and the already cold Air may keep precipitation Freezing or frozen for a longer period of time I would not be surprised to see a few inches of snow topped off by sleet then freezing rain before a change to rain. It looks kind of sloppy to me.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 16, 2019 10:43:37 GMT -6
FV3 and Gem and Icon look very similar, Euro and Gfs are a little warmer with the rain snow line just north of the metro
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 16, 2019 10:44:22 GMT -6
Next weekend looks interesting for backside snow with a cutter that is a bit further east than a week or two ago
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2019 10:46:36 GMT -6
What I get tired of, is exerting so much mind power and energy on the small storm systems. It takes almost as much effort to crank out a forecast like this storm as it does for a monster. If I am going to put the effort in, it would be nice if it was for something bigger lol.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2019 10:46:55 GMT -6
Have we ever had this many winter weather advisories or any weather headlines in a winter. Good God. I know ita not 20 of them but I feel like we have had 20 of them this season lol
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