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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 16, 2019 10:49:32 GMT -6
according to that map Chris, it was pretty big...  |
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Post by pbc12871 on Feb 16, 2019 10:53:13 GMT -6
..and blue.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 16, 2019 10:53:51 GMT -6
I agree Chris, you basically have a 1040 HP sitting in Iowa as the precipitation builds from the south west . The models then move the HP very quickly to the east. Typically you will hold onto the cold air and have a North east wind which will feed drier colder air into the system for a while.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2019 10:58:31 GMT -6
I agree Chris, you basically have a 1040 HP sitting in Iowa as the precipitation builds from the south west . The models then move the HP very quickly to the east. Typically you will hold onto the cold air and have a North east wind which will feed drier colder air into the system for a while. Not unlike the big storm in January. |
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Post by rb1108 on Feb 16, 2019 11:08:48 GMT -6
Does Tuesday's system have the potential to be stronger/bigger than yesterday's and tonight's?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 16, 2019 11:09:53 GMT -6
What I get tired of, is exerting so much mind power and energy on the small storm systems. It takes almost as much effort to crank out a forecast like this storm as it does for a monster. If I am going to put the effort in, it would be nice if it was for something bigger lol. It seems like we're riding the edge of the dry air or the warm wedge 90%+ of the time here...we're just climatologically favored for borderline systems, unfortunately. It's amazing how much more consistent the winter pattern is just 100-200 miles to the W or N. The river valley and lower elevation plays a large role here for sure. And of course our latitude is roughly the same as DC. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 16, 2019 11:12:17 GMT -6
Does Tuesday's system have the potential to be stronger/bigger than yesterday's and tonight's? For those who missed out...probably. But the areas that got hit good yesterday will likely end up on the warm side Tuesday...although the MO counties may stay colder. Columbia is probably in a good spot for that storm. |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2019 11:15:18 GMT -6
I'm beginning to think ice for Tuesday. That cold air will.not move out that fast. I bet it takes until noon Wednesday to get above freezing. Let's see what 12 z euro shows. This could be a fairly substantial even along and north of 70 and 64 in illinois. Not sure but needs to be watched after this small icing tonight
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 16, 2019 11:15:37 GMT -6
Received 1.25" yesterday raising my season total to 20.25"
Solid season so far. One more big system would really be the icing on the cake
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Feb 16, 2019 11:17:25 GMT -6
Have we ever had this many winter weather advisories or any weather headlines in a winter. Good God. I know ita not 20 of them but I feel like we have had 20 of them this season lol I've seen more over the years. In fact, many more. I can remember years when there were more winter storm warnings. This winter was active, but still not spectacular. Way too many rains this winter. The borderline ones are the ones I can't stand... so close yet so far away. If next week pans out like some say, snow to sleet, to freezing rain, to rain will just be a letdown. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 16, 2019 11:19:00 GMT -6
What I get tired of, is exerting so much mind power and energy on the small storm systems. It takes almost as much effort to crank out a forecast like this storm as it does for a monster. If I am going to put the effort in, it would be nice if it was for something bigger lol. It seems like we're riding the edge of the dry air or the warm wedge 90%+ of the time here...we're just climatologically favored for borderline systems, unfortunately. It's amazing how much more consistent the winter pattern is just 100-200 miles to the W or N. The river valley and lower elevation plays a large role here for sure. And of course our latitude is roughly the same as DC. Riding that borderline can be half the fun sometimes
Some more "slam dunk" systems would be nice though and be good for the overall health of the corner members
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Post by dschreib on Feb 16, 2019 11:21:52 GMT -6
Oh, my. I'd say that's about right. Why are snowfall maps X-rated? You had to go there. I was taking the high road thinking it looked more like the beak of a seagull or of a Crow. I'll go with Beaker's buddy, Gonzo. |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Feb 16, 2019 11:23:08 GMT -6
Chris... you mentioned this am. that the slop tonight should be in and out rather quickly. How quickly are you thinking? Will we be dry most of the day tomorrow? Thanks
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Post by dschreib on Feb 16, 2019 11:25:55 GMT -6
What I get tired of, is exerting so much mind power and energy on the small storm systems. It takes almost as much effort to crank out a forecast like this storm as it does for a monster. If I am going to put the effort in, it would be nice if it was for something bigger lol. Imagine if you had to do that for every .1-.2 rainer that came through. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2019 11:30:06 GMT -6
What I get tired of, is exerting so much mind power and energy on the small storm systems. It takes almost as much effort to crank out a forecast like this storm as it does for a monster. If I am going to put the effort in, it would be nice if it was for something bigger lol. Imagine if you had to do that for every .1-.2 rainer that came through. I would not be a meteorologist  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2019 11:30:45 GMT -6
Chris... you mentioned this am. that the slop tonight should be in and out rather quickly. How quickly are you thinking? Will we be dry most of the day tomorrow? Thanks The snow portion should be rather quick late this evening..then we are left with patchy freezing drizzle and very fine/light sleet. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2019 11:31:04 GMT -6
You had to go there. I was taking the high road thinking it looked more like the beak of a seagull or of a Crow. I'll go with Beaker's buddy, Gonzo. Gonzo is perfect....it looks just like Gonzo. |
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Post by dschreib on Feb 16, 2019 11:32:16 GMT -6
Imagine if you had to do that for every .1-.2 rainer that came through. I would not be a meteorologist And if we held you to the same standard..."Why did it only rain .07" at my house?!?! This is crap!" |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 16, 2019 11:34:25 GMT -6
I just went back to my profile and looked back for as long as I've been tracking my yearly snowfall...and was surprised to see that with yesterday's snowfall I have no surpassed the winter of 2013-14. That was a bit of shock for as harsh a winter as that was. I guess the big difference was the cold that winter.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 16, 2019 11:40:10 GMT -6
I just went back to my profile and looked back for as long as I've been tracking my yearly snowfall...and was surprised to see that with yesterday's snowfall I have no surpassed the winter of 2013-14. That was a bit of shock for as harsh a winter as that was. I guess the big difference was the cold that winter. I don't think I had over 25" that season...but it was definitely a much more "hardcore" winter with lasting snowcover and cold outbreaks. This year's mild spell that lasted over a month and the frequent rainers really hurt this season's potential, IMO. If it weren't for the early start in November and the strat warming event this year probably would have been a bust overall. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 16, 2019 11:45:42 GMT -6
I may never eclipse 13-14. I ended up somewhere between 36-40". What set the southerners ahead that winter was the foot plus down here Dec. 5/6th 2013.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 16, 2019 11:46:24 GMT -6
What I get tired of, is exerting so much mind power and energy on the small storm systems. It takes almost as much effort to crank out a forecast like this storm as it does for a monster. If I am going to put the effort in, it would be nice if it was for something bigger lol. It seems like we're riding the edge of the dry air or the warm wedge 90%+ of the time here...we're just climatologically favored for borderline systems, unfortunately. It's amazing how much more consistent the winter pattern is just 100-200 miles to the W or N. The river valley and lower elevation plays a large role here for sure. And of course our latitude is roughly the same as DC. I had this convo with my minneapolis colleagues the other day. Their response was that they felt like they were on the edge too. I certainly am not buying it. But yeah, we talked abt how much different the winter pattern is 100 to 200 miles to the north or south. Since ive moved to st louis in the mid 80s, confidence was higher in precip types and it didnt seem like we had these borderline events as much. Cgi was the border, but stl you cld count on snow without the wam. We also had alot more winterstorm watches and advisories but the problem in the 80s, alot more of them busted hard. Nowadays, if you get a WSW, you at least can count on snow. As for the borderline thing, the wx pattern we hv now feels like the pattern i had growing up in cape. Maybe a 100 mile displacement in avg storm tracks has taken place. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 16, 2019 11:53:54 GMT -6
I just went back to my profile and looked back for as long as I've been tracking my yearly snowfall...and was surprised to see that with yesterday's snowfall I have no surpassed the winter of 2013-14. That was a bit of shock for as harsh a winter as that was. I guess the big difference was the cold that winter. I don't think I had over 25" that season...but it was definitely a much more "hardcore" winter with lasting snowcover and cold outbreaks. This year's mild spell that lasted over a month and the frequent rainers really hurt this season's potential, IMO. If it weren't for the early start in November and the strat warming event this year probably would have been a bust overall. That is a concern of mine...we hv come to depend on strat warm this year to provide our winter wx. the nao just has not gone negative for any period of time over the past several years and the west based epo put us under the sw flow. A very active winter for the conus but storms favored a cutter path. |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 16, 2019 11:57:32 GMT -6
I was at 28-29” in 13-14 I’m now right there , about 28” , I think we will for sure surpass it. I saw Joe Bastardi a day or so ago say we are heading into colder phases of the MJO. He thinks winter will be strong though mid March. The long range models continue to show that. I think we will for sure surpass 13-14 by the end of winter. This winter will likely feel very long since we started hard in mid November. Yes we’ve missed several storms but we’ve been hit by more than 10-12 so far , this may not be Epic but will be one we all remember.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2019 11:58:47 GMT -6
Yes if we had no strategy warming I bet it would of been a historically warm winter. Fortunately with it we are at basically average. Maybe a tic below
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 16, 2019 11:59:36 GMT -6
I may never eclipse 13-14. I ended up somewhere between 36-40". What set the southerners ahead that winter was the foot plus down here Dec. 5/6th 2013. I recall cgi got close to 40 inches in 84/85. It took a couple 8 inch snows and a couple 5 inch snows plus a multitude of smaller storms. I believe we got more snow than chicago that year unless chicago got a bunch late in the season after winter was over for cgi. Meanwhile st louis winter was unremarkable. I dont think they hv ever come close since. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 16, 2019 12:00:08 GMT -6
It seems like we're riding the edge of the dry air or the warm wedge 90%+ of the time here...we're just climatologically favored for borderline systems, unfortunately. It's amazing how much more consistent the winter pattern is just 100-200 miles to the W or N. The river valley and lower elevation plays a large role here for sure. And of course our latitude is roughly the same as DC. I had this convo with my minneapolis colleagues the other day. Their response was that they felt like they were on the edge too. I certainly am not buying it. But yeah, we talked abt how much different the winter pattern is 100 to 200 miles to the north or south. Since ive moved to st louis in the mid 80s, confidence was higher in precip types and it didnt seem like we had these borderline events as much. Cgi was the border, but stl you cld count on snow without the wam. We also had alot more winterstorm watches and advisories but the problem in the 80s, alot more of them busted hard. Nowadays, if you get a WSW, you at least can count on snow. As for the borderline thing, the wx pattern we hv now feels like the pattern i had growing up in cape. Maybe a 100 mile displacement in avg storm tracks has taken place. I think it definitely has...you could make a strong argument that the +AMO has a lot to do with that shift over the past 2+ decades. But I also think that may be slowly but surely reversing in the longer term. There seems to be an increasing trend of more harsh winters since about 2010...obviously there have been some duds in there too so it's hard to say for sure but I do believe there are several forcings working to cause a shift towards colder winters over the next 20+ years possibly. |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2019 12:00:11 GMT -6
Also I am at exactly 28 for the winter. Same as landscaper.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 16, 2019 12:06:31 GMT -6
Yeah, the MJO is headed into the favored 8/1/2 quadrant and the SOI has shown a big negative trend recently...that's a good sign for continued cold air and storm potential with an active southern jet and a buckling N branch. You would expect the long wave pattern to shift further E with the trend of the MJO which would be great for us. The EPO is still a bit too far west based for a good snowstorm pattern here...the -PNA/+NAO pattern favors ice here in the short/mid term.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 16, 2019 12:21:58 GMT -6
I have noticed I can easily handle winter I st.louis. I have yet to break out the coat this winter. When its 15 or ok. When its 0 it's a little chilly when its neg 10 I'll put a sweatshirt on. Today I'm in shotsleevs lol
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