|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 14, 2019 19:23:03 GMT -6
Anyone know what the 18 z Euro looks like? 0.28-0.4 QPF THROUGH STL. 0.4+ QPF Rolla through Farmington |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2019 19:23:49 GMT -6
Thanks that’s good to know
|
|
|
|
Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 14, 2019 19:33:43 GMT -6
HRRRRRR looks good to me!
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2019 19:34:13 GMT -6
The 00z hrrr is ok.
It's insanely dry everywhere
It totally screws the Southern Counties while having a fluffy 2-3" through the immediate metro
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2019 19:39:28 GMT -6
sref plumes at almost 4 inches at Lambert
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2019 19:39:48 GMT -6
The HRRR at 12Z versus 00Z.   |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 14, 2019 19:47:29 GMT -6
The HRRR at 12Z versus 00Z. Really screws KC |
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2019 19:47:49 GMT -6
That's a really nice vorticity coming out of the Rockies I would expect the snowband to track right through the metro along and just South of i70. Im just a armchair met. But man I'd think there would be a pretty decent event from that.  |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2019 19:49:26 GMT -6
I think we have seen this with the rap and hrrr before. They start out wet in the far outer periods of there reach, then dry out, then eventually get wetter again as we get closer.
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2019 19:51:40 GMT -6
I agree with snow the hrrr and rap are notoriousl for bouncing around
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2019 19:59:51 GMT -6
Nam is essentially leaving the immediate metro completely dry
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2019 20:02:40 GMT -6
I think the nam can be discounted. That wont happen
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2019 20:04:29 GMT -6
I mean serf plumes are phenomenal
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2019 20:05:00 GMT -6
the nam has by far been the most consistent model. From the driest to the wettest in 24 hours. Then dry again. It's been awesome.
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2019 20:05:31 GMT -6
I think the nam can be discounted. That wont happen I That can easily happen. The rap/hrrr being further NE even tho they are elongated gives decent hope. |
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Feb 14, 2019 20:05:40 GMT -6
Exactly i don't trust nam
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2019 20:09:16 GMT -6
That cutoff on the NAM though, yikes. St louis gets .1 of snow, while Union gets 3 inches or so.
|
|
|
|
Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Feb 14, 2019 20:10:30 GMT -6
What the heck is on Wichita radar?
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Feb 14, 2019 20:10:35 GMT -6
the nam has by far been the most consistent model. From the driest to the wettest in 24 hours. Then dry again. It's been awesome. So it's consistently inconsistent...nice! |
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2019 20:10:57 GMT -6
The Nam has substantial lift.
But the dry air is just to much.
The hires nam is slightly further NE.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 14, 2019 20:13:34 GMT -6
I love the way models are discounted on here lmao
|
|
|
|
Post by mchafin on Feb 14, 2019 20:15:23 GMT -6
I love the way models are discounted on here lmao I was just thinking the same thing. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Feb 14, 2019 20:16:47 GMT -6
What the heck is on Wichita radar? flying zombies |
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Feb 14, 2019 20:17:40 GMT -6
What the heck is on Wichita radar? I think it was repaired recently. NWS says it needs to be recalibrated. |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 14, 2019 20:18:59 GMT -6
I love the way models are discounted on here lmao I was just thinking the same thing. Really hoping the hospitals don’t go “that readmission rate is looking high, better throw it out” lol |
|
|
|
Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 14, 2019 20:20:39 GMT -6
I think the nam can be discounted. That wont happen I That can easily happen. The rap/hrrr being further NE even tho they are elongated gives decent hope. Never discount the NAM. At this range that solution could easily verify and the dry air as Frivo said is very real. Thankfully IMBY I’m still doing good. Hoping for that northeast shift I think will happen does even though it’s trending the wrong way. I want everyone to get in on this. One thing is for sure...that southern meso band is flirting with 5 and 6” totals. |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Feb 14, 2019 20:23:36 GMT -6
I’m not discounting anything,I could easily see us getting next to nothing. I’m out west of Wentzville I thought I was in a good spot, not so much. This could easily be the type of storms that gives Eureka 3” and Florissant a dusting. I’m not ready to throw the !Drying Cloth! in yet but many models have trended drier for sure
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 14, 2019 20:30:21 GMT -6
The RAP/HRRR have nudged back NE a bit at 01Z.
Which is actually it's first run with full 00z initialization data.
They don't run through for us to get a full comparison but you can see they key lift is NE from 00z.
And much further NE than the Nam.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Feb 14, 2019 20:32:24 GMT -6
Dewpoints are in the -2 to 5F range across northwestern half Iowa where the strong cold/dry advection will be coming from. The GFS actually brings the dewpoint down to 5F tomorrow with a dewpoint depress of 20+F. So yeah I'd be concerned about dry air...at least initially.  |
|
|
|
Post by mchafin on Feb 14, 2019 20:35:57 GMT -6
I was just thinking the same thing. Really hoping the hospitals don’t go “that readmission rate is looking high, better throw it out” lol Well. You should throw it out if the readmisson rates are due to unrelated events. Like. Being admitted for CHF, discharged after 3 days and then as you try to get in your car in the hospital parking lot, you fall and break your hip therefore getting readmitting. |
|
