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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2019 3:37:16 GMT -6
I sure hope so.... NWS cut my point forecast from 2.7 down to 1.7..... seems to happen every dang time.....just gets frustrating lol This happens to everyone. So you aren't alone. |
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 15, 2019 3:52:29 GMT -6
Not sure I've been on a fine line like this one. Could get 3-4 inches. Then go to Marthasville to go throw snow on Tilawn's bare lawn. Nah you can keep all of it there!! 😊 it better do something so customers don’t complain about the salt all over their lots!! |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 15, 2019 4:07:33 GMT -6
Lol, RAP is up to .25 at st louis. Around .4 here. Pretty significant increase
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 15, 2019 4:25:31 GMT -6
Then the 9z HRRR is a bit drier than previous run, haha
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 15, 2019 4:51:18 GMT -6
Well... hope I am communicating this event well. What a headache.
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Post by pbc12871 on Feb 15, 2019 4:57:59 GMT -6
Oh **** this. Track a storm, let it get hours away,then watch the forecast fall apart before our eyes. Sounds like last winter, and the winter before that, and the winter before that...
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 15, 2019 5:02:53 GMT -6
I only caught you once or twice Chris, but looked like you're doing a fine job. As good as you can for the masses. Hope they get it. I'm sure most won't  |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 15, 2019 5:13:55 GMT -6
Maybe I’m wrong but it sure looks like the precip is about 20 miles further northeast. Just my opinion.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 15, 2019 5:20:54 GMT -6
If your north of I-70/I-64 you can probably forget about this one, south of there and amounts escalate quickly and sharply. 10Z HRRR showing a bullseye of 8" in central Missouri and that's with 10:1 ratios...
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 15, 2019 5:26:05 GMT -6
10z HRRR and RAP both look pretty darn good.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 15, 2019 5:30:37 GMT -6
10z HRRR and RAP both look pretty darn good. I like them a lot! |
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Post by pbc12871 on Feb 15, 2019 5:35:46 GMT -6
Cozpregon..I was at that Hawks game where Belfour smashed his stick after Janney scored. It was absolutely the most electrifying atmosphere I ever experienced at a sporting event. Younger folks today have no clue how freaking loud it was in the old barn. The new place doesn't come close. The chants of "BELLLLLLLFOUUUUR" were going throughout the game and they were deafening!
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Feb 15, 2019 5:55:47 GMT -6
driving to Miami today if I leave at 10-11 am I'll be fine right? storm looks like it's not even to Missouri yet!?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 15, 2019 5:58:20 GMT -6
driving to Miami today if I leave at 10-11 am I'll be fine right? storm looks like it's not even to Missouri yet!? Might catch a little snow in southern IL |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 15, 2019 5:58:21 GMT -6
You'll be fine. Especially since you're heading east.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 15, 2019 6:04:53 GMT -6
You'll be fine. Especially since you're heading east. Depends... heading down 55? 64? |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 15, 2019 6:07:44 GMT -6
FV3 is supposed to become operational on March 20, after being delayed from the Government shutdown
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 15, 2019 6:08:20 GMT -6
You'll be fine. Especially since you're heading east. Depends... heading down 55? 64? True.  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 15, 2019 6:10:15 GMT -6
FV3 is supposed to become operational on March 20, after being delayed from the Government shutdown Government could shutdown again tonight, so it might get delayed till April if that happens. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 15, 2019 6:13:32 GMT -6
It's not shutting down again. Guaranteed.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 15, 2019 6:14:07 GMT -6
Springfield and Kansas City are making the donut holes this morning.
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 15, 2019 6:14:49 GMT -6
FV3 is supposed to become operational on March 20, after being delayed from the Government shutdown Government could shutdown again tonight, so it might get delayed till April if that happens. Highly doubtful that happens |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 15, 2019 6:16:00 GMT -6
11Z RAP is probably the best case we can hope for this event. HRRR has backed off slightly from 10Z's run but not by a ton.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 15, 2019 6:17:44 GMT -6
Man... you can't bring the gradient into a more painful place for forecasting...
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 15, 2019 6:18:56 GMT -6
Definitely a trend of increasing QPF within the zone of greatest lift which could produce warning level snows of 5 to 7" in the heaviest most persistent band(s). Going to be a very razor thin line between a big snow and barely a flake. Gonna be a nail biter for some.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 15, 2019 6:21:59 GMT -6
Caution with extra juice to the south... some of that will be sleet...
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 15, 2019 6:28:11 GMT -6
I figured the short rangers would come in juicier as we got closer. I'll take both of them from 11z please.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 15, 2019 6:29:15 GMT -6
Lots of fake snow showing up on the radar in KS and OK...with very very few reporting stations actually reporting anything reaching the ground yet.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 15, 2019 6:45:45 GMT -6
65* yesterday...missing a snowstorm to the S today...gotta love it.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 15, 2019 6:52:46 GMT -6
Looking good for down in my neck of the woods. If it stays mostly snow it could be a very nice storm. The cold dry air that is trying to kill this thing may help with that.
We've got to get the snow falling first though. This is a tough one all around.
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