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Post by ajd446 on Feb 15, 2019 6:53:24 GMT -6
I'm betting on not a flake anywhere within 100 miles of Lambert
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 15, 2019 6:55:35 GMT -6
12Z HRRR/RAP have begun to roll.
Being a divisible by 3 run, a la 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18 etc, it gets new data and could make or break this system.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Feb 15, 2019 6:56:12 GMT -6
Is it likely that the NWS trims the WWA south a county or two?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 15, 2019 6:58:12 GMT -6
Is it likely that the NWS trims the WWA south a county or two? May not know that until late morning or lunchtime. Unless things really shift south again however I think St. Clair county will remain in it for at least the southwest half of the county which is more likely to see advisory level conditions. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Feb 15, 2019 7:00:47 GMT -6
Is it likely that the NWS trims the WWA south a county or two? May not know that until late morning or lunchtime. Unless things really shift south again however I think St. Clair county will remain in it for at least the southwest half of the county which is more likely to see advisory level conditions. I ask because my point forecast dropped from 3 to 1. While I agree that timing is grounds for advisory, the amount isnt exactly advisory level. Wind isnt a factor and temp isnt either. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 15, 2019 7:02:40 GMT -6
HRRR is slightly farther north and cooler up to hour 5. Good news so far. RAP taking it's time.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 15, 2019 7:25:45 GMT -6
12Z Less amped on QPF and more realistic but placement remains relatively identical to 11Z so in a nutshell steady as she goes for the HRRR. RAP still not out yet...
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Post by nascarfan999 on Feb 15, 2019 7:26:29 GMT -6
May not know that until late morning or lunchtime. Unless things really shift south again however I think St. Clair county will remain in it for at least the southwest half of the county which is more likely to see advisory level conditions. I ask because my point forecast dropped from 3 to 1. While I agree that timing is grounds for advisory, the amount isnt exactly advisory level. Wind isnt a factor and temp isnt either. I think they are very unlikely to drop the advisory unless they are 100% certain of a bust. The last thing they would want to do is cancel the advisory only to have enough snow fall to cause issues (which given the timing and our driving ability is not much). |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 15, 2019 7:28:17 GMT -6
Ive found in the past these kind of systems with the current trajectory and DAM, slip to the south so im cutting my 2 to 3 down to an inch.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 15, 2019 7:30:33 GMT -6
Is it likely that the NWS trims the WWA south a county or two? No... because of the rush hour factor they are leaving it alone. |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 15, 2019 7:35:14 GMT -6
I got to admit radar looks phenomenal out west. And north.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 15, 2019 7:37:44 GMT -6
I got to admit radar looks phenomenal out west. And north. Too bad much of that is not reaching the ground. |
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Feb 15, 2019 7:38:50 GMT -6
I got to admit radar looks phenomenal out west. And north. Not a flake here despite good radar returns, it's fighting dry air. |
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 15, 2019 7:39:35 GMT -6
I got to admit radar looks phenomenal out west. And north. I was thinking the same thing, but it’s not hitting the ground. Ugh |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 15, 2019 7:41:07 GMT -6
Ok it's over. Nes just cut metro to 40 percent chance. Now clearly to.orrpw nights event could be dangerous cause of ice kind of like last sunday
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 15, 2019 7:41:09 GMT -6
Chris I am sensing your concerns here with every post. This dry air is something.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 15, 2019 7:42:36 GMT -6
I am kind of shocked, I woke up expecting a shift south leaving me high and dry, but I guess an inch or two still looks good for me out my way. But even though precipitation is not reaching the ground it’s still good to see a decent looking radar
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Post by landscaper on Feb 15, 2019 7:45:48 GMT -6
Wow ...some people need to relax it will give you a headache at times reading all the dramatic minute by minute posts on here.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 15, 2019 7:52:09 GMT -6
Chris I am sensing your concerns here with every post. This dry air is something. Actually... I am pretty comfortable with where I am at right now. There isn't much more that I can do. Dropping snow for STL would be a huge mistake. But the line between haves/have not is so razor thin...it is certain I will be wrong somewhere. So I am trying to communicate the uncertainty...especially in the 1-2" band...and leave it at that. Having the RPM, RAP and HRRR showing 2" totals into STL county is helpful to my mental state... I ain't going to lie  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 15, 2019 8:00:43 GMT -6
Freezing rqin showing up as far north as Pittsbueg KS
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 15, 2019 8:07:29 GMT -6
We definitely don’t want freezing rain on a Friday afternoon rush hour....
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 15, 2019 8:08:02 GMT -6
12z nam hits St. Louis briefly before quickly shunting everything south.
Maybe a quick inch
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Post by pbc12871 on Feb 15, 2019 8:08:06 GMT -6
I can't believe radar returns that beautiful are amounting to nothing. What a shame.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 15, 2019 8:13:42 GMT -6
13z hrrrr coming in looking real good.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 15, 2019 8:16:53 GMT -6
Radar out of KS looks good but you can see the shortwave beginning to slide SE. I'm not expecting anything IMBY but will be watching trends close today.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 15, 2019 8:23:59 GMT -6
13z hrrrr coming in looking real good. It tries but still not overwhelming. |
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Post by rb1108 on Feb 15, 2019 8:32:04 GMT -6
Any thoughts on the Tuesday system? Models are showing 6" or so potential nearby by Thursday, but I am not sure how much of that would be from today/tomorrow.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 15, 2019 8:38:15 GMT -6
Any thoughts on the Tuesday system? Models are showing 6" or so potential nearby by Thursday, but I am not sure how much of that would be from today/tomorrow. Looks messy. If it happens a wintry mix seems likely |
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 15, 2019 8:39:30 GMT -6
Any thoughts on the Tuesday system? Models are showing 6" or so potential nearby by Thursday, but I am not sure how much of that would be from today/tomorrow. I am looking at Saturday night as maybe the next storm. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 15, 2019 8:39:31 GMT -6
A couple snow obs starting to show up near Lake of the Ozarks.
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