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Post by unclesam6 on Apr 3, 2019 10:37:16 GMT -6
6z fv3 drops 20 inches of snow across the metro. 00z euro still shows a big storm too, but has the snow just north of the metro and up through Chicago. Pretty funny to see this time of year, but the models did this a week ago predicting snow for last weekend and we all know how that went. To me if anything, its probably telling us more rain is on the way. Maybe alot more. Am i right?? Yep. A lot more water we don't need. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 3, 2019 11:27:30 GMT -6
00z super gfs has antics next wednesday 6z fv3 drops 20 inches of snow across the metro. 00z euro still shows a big storm too, but has the snow just north of the metro and up through Chicago. Pretty funny to see this time of year, but the models did this a week ago predicting snow for last weekend and we all know how that went. They really need to put that model out of its misery...I think I'll start referring to it as the DGEX 2.0. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 3, 2019 13:29:48 GMT -6
6z fv3 drops 20 inches of snow across the metro. 00z euro still shows a big storm too, but has the snow just north of the metro and up through Chicago. Pretty funny to see this time of year, but the models did this a week ago predicting snow for last weekend and we all know how that went. They really need to put that model out of its misery...I think I'll start referring to it as the DGEX 2.0. To be fair, the 12z euro shows 35 inches of snow in Waterloo, Iowa and 6-20 inches in the northern suburbs of Chicago. That seems unlikely |
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Post by unclesam6 on Apr 3, 2019 14:15:00 GMT -6
Synoptically, it has more of a realistic-looking spring snow setup. But the numbers are far too inflated.
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 3, 2019 14:57:25 GMT -6
They really need to put that model out of its misery...I think I'll start referring to it as the DGEX 2.0. To be fair, the 12z euro shows 35 inches of snow in Waterloo, Iowa and 6-20 inches in the northern suburbs of Chicago. That seems unlikely That is certainly an epic storm showing up on the Euro. |
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 3, 2019 15:05:29 GMT -6
6z fv3 drops 20 inches of snow across the metro. 00z euro still shows a big storm too, but has the snow just north of the metro and up through Chicago. Pretty funny to see this time of year, but the models did this a week ago predicting snow for last weekend and we all know how that went. They really need to put that model out of its misery...I think I'll start referring to it as the DGEX 2.0. My favorite DGEX run was the snow bomb it showed for St. Louis of 42". It is from Jan. 2017. Good times. |
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Post by Tilawn on Apr 4, 2019 7:25:52 GMT -6
Anybody wondering if they called the home opener off to soon yet?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 4, 2019 8:17:13 GMT -6
Anybody wondering if they called the home opener off to soon yet? First thing I thought when I heard the call...might not get much rain after all! It's not like we need it. This system has steadily weakened in the modeling so it's not surprising that it isn't turning out to be a major soaker. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 4, 2019 8:39:10 GMT -6
Anybody wondering if they called the home opener off to soon yet? First thing I thought when I heard the call...might not get much rain after all! It's not like we need it. This system has steadily weakened in the modeling so it's not surprising that it isn't turning out to be a major soaker. I was suprised they did it early based on their past performance of waiting until the last minute...but I think it was a good move. For a major event like this... it makes sense to act early when you know the westher for the alternate is going to good. Opening Day just is special without the pregame stuff...which you cant do in the rain. Besides, the early decision allowed people to change plans with a decent amount of notice. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 4, 2019 8:41:53 GMT -6
And despite the wavering QPF in the models... the strength of the shortwave...and the trqck continues to favor pretty widespread rain to the north of the vort track....and that is playing out nicely on radar right now.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 4, 2019 8:50:03 GMT -6
Anyone else having trouble getting mPing to load?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 4, 2019 9:53:16 GMT -6
First thing I thought when I heard the call...might not get much rain after all! It's not like we need it. This system has steadily weakened in the modeling so it's not surprising that it isn't turning out to be a major soaker. I was suprised they did it early based on their past performance of waiting until the last minute...but I think it was a good move. For a major event like this... it makes sense to act early when you know the westher for the alternate is going to good. Opening Day just is special without the pregame stuff...which you cant do in the rain. Besides, the early decision allowed people to change plans with a decent amount of notice. TBF, I would have made the same call. We might not get an inch of rain(thankfully) but it's definitely not the kind of weather you want for a major event like Opening Day. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 4, 2019 10:02:08 GMT -6
Looking pretty far out but I'm becoming concerned with the large-scale pattern that ensembles are developing towards D10...west-based -NAO and -PNA combo favors a wavy boundary setup across the mid-section with a TON of energy loading in the S branch of the jet and an open GOMEX with ridging in the SE. This is the firehose pattern that I mentioned potential for last month...April is looking quite active and wet across the central US/Midwest which is not good news for the flooding front.
There also appears to be at least a low-end severe risk towards the middle of next week with the potent upper low ejecting into the Plains...models show a sub 990mb SLP developing with a sharp dryline. The biggest limiting factor will be rather shallow moisture but lapse rates should be steep and there's plenty of kinetic energy/shear.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 4, 2019 10:23:47 GMT -6
First thing I thought when I heard the call...might not get much rain after all! It's not like we need it. This system has steadily weakened in the modeling so it's not surprising that it isn't turning out to be a major soaker. I was suprised they did it early based on their past performance of waiting until the last minute...but I think it was a good move. For a major event like this... it makes sense to act early when you know the westher for the alternate is going to good. Opening Day just is special without the pregame stuff...which you cant do in the rain. Besides, the early decision allowed people to change plans with a decent amount of notice. I’m glad they acted early so I could adjust work and travel accordingly MLB builds that off day in, and the bullpen needs as much rest as possible after these crazy first six games. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 4, 2019 10:36:47 GMT -6
12z gfs and especially the FV3 remain gnarly in the region next week at this time.
If the euro comes in somewhere in between I’ll probably bite on a potentially historic late season snow for the Midwest/Ohio Valley.
If you enjoy tracking extreme weather, this one should qualify even if STL has only a puncher’s chance of some backside wet snow.
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 4, 2019 11:15:06 GMT -6
12z gfs and especially the FV3 remain gnarly in the region next week at this time. If the euro comes in somewhere in between I’ll probably bite on a potentially historic late season snow for the Midwest/Ohio Valley. If you enjoy tracking extreme weather, this one should qualify even if STL has only a puncher’s chance of some backside wet snow. It looks like a better shot for you if something does materialize. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 4, 2019 11:23:54 GMT -6
12z gfs and especially the FV3 remain gnarly in the region next week at this time. If the euro comes in somewhere in between I’ll probably bite on a potentially historic late season snow for the Midwest/Ohio Valley. If you enjoy tracking extreme weather, this one should qualify even if STL has only a puncher’s chance of some backside wet snow. It looks like a better shot for you if something does materialize. It’s amazing how consistent the major storm MSLPs have been since mid January. Wisconsin was been getting smacked. I would bet that continues. You have to think we will have an exciting May from a severe weather point of view considering the intensity of these storms. I expect many Cardinals rain delays and cancellations unfortunately. Does anyone know where to find a graphic of all MSLP tracks over a given time period? That might be interesting to analyze. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 4, 2019 11:52:09 GMT -6
Anyone else having trouble getting mPing to load? Seems to be working again. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 4, 2019 12:16:37 GMT -6
Weather update... it is officially gross outside. Good call to cancel.
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Post by Tilawn on Apr 4, 2019 13:32:40 GMT -6
Weather update... it is officially gross outside. Good call to cancel. I agree on the cancellations of the activities for today. This morning going off of radar returns it didn’t look like much at that time. It has really built in and if we actually needed the moisture it would be the perfect soaking rain. Received .55” so far today. |
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 4, 2019 13:46:28 GMT -6
12Z Euro is still showing a significant snowstorm for the upper midwest.
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Post by cozpregon on Apr 4, 2019 15:02:00 GMT -6
Later Sunday afternoon/evening has my interest.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 4, 2019 15:02:16 GMT -6
12Z Euro is still showing a significant snowstorm for the upper midwest. Maybe the 00z euro will look like ensemble member 47... You never know... |
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 4, 2019 15:10:31 GMT -6
12Z Euro is still showing a significant snowstorm for the upper midwest. Maybe the 00z euro will look like ensemble member 47... You never know... You have a handful of promising members up your way. |
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 4, 2019 15:29:03 GMT -6
It's sorta off topic but if you're bored tonight and want to watch Japan launch a missile...err that's not right...I mean "explosive impactor" at an asteroid and watch it live then go to the following link. The ETA of the impactor is 9:36 pm CDT but the stream goes live at 8:00 pm. Supposedly this will create a crater that is 10m deep. I mean, really, who isn't interested in watching stuff blow up?
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Apr 4, 2019 17:29:37 GMT -6
^ for some reason when reading this all I can think of is Marvin the Martian and his Illudium Q-36 Explosive Space Modulator that he was always going to use to blow up Earth. At least Japan is aiming at an asteroid.
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Post by mosue56 on Apr 4, 2019 17:54:58 GMT -6
Anyone know where the rain on late Sat night and Sunday is coming from? Is it from the Pacific?
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 4, 2019 20:51:29 GMT -6
UKMET is in the FV3 camp right now concerning the D6-7 storm.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 4, 2019 21:13:44 GMT -6
UKMET is in the FV3 camp right now concerning the D6-7 storm. Crazy Unkle Ukie?! |
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 4, 2019 21:24:33 GMT -6
UKMET is in the FV3 camp right now concerning the D6-7 storm. Crazy Unkle Ukie?! Yes sir. I have no idea what the temperature profile looks like though.  |
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