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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 4, 2019 21:44:06 GMT -6
Yes sir. I have no idea what the temperature profile looks like though. You wouldn't think the ridge being up near Hudson would be favorable for enough cold air but it's a deep upper low so it should have dynamic cooling going for it.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 4, 2019 22:06:17 GMT -6
Sunday on the NAM still shows potential
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 5, 2019 8:06:22 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 5, 2019 9:25:13 GMT -6
I wouldn't rule out some stronger storms but forcing looks pretty weak as well as instability.
Next week is looking pretty gnarly in the Plains with the dryline setup. The biggest limiting factor is definitely shallow moisture return as the Gulf gets swept prior to that storm. But there should be enough for LP supercells with very steep lapse rates. If that storm slows down like the EURO shows that risk could spread into our region on Thursday. As far as snow is concerned, that looks like a MN/WI snowstorm to me...a backdoor cold front isn't favorable for getting cold air into place ahead of a storm...the ridge position is all wrong.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 5, 2019 9:28:29 GMT -6
I wouldn't rule out some stronger storms but forcing looks pretty weak as well as instability.
Next week is looking pretty gnarly in the Plains with the dryline setup. If that storm slows down like the EURO shows that risk could spread into our region on Thursday. As far as snow is concerned, that looks like a MN/WI snowstorm to me...a backdoor cold front isn't favorable for getting cold air into place ahead of a storm...the ridge position is all wrong.
And it will be April 11th. There is that.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 5, 2019 9:32:27 GMT -6
I wouldn't rule out some stronger storms but forcing looks pretty weak as well as instability.
Next week is looking pretty gnarly in the Plains with the dryline setup. If that storm slows down like the EURO shows that risk could spread into our region on Thursday. As far as snow is concerned, that looks like a MN/WI snowstorm to me...a backdoor cold front isn't favorable for getting cold air into place ahead of a storm...the ridge position is all wrong.
And it will be April 11th. There is that. Right...climo says no go.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 5, 2019 10:28:47 GMT -6
Anyone else having issues loading data in radarscope?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 5, 2019 10:49:07 GMT -6
Anyone else having issues loading data in radarscope? Everything working fine for me as far as I can tell
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 5, 2019 12:59:34 GMT -6
The Euro absolutely lays the hammer down on Iowa and into Chicago on Wednesday. Areas north of I-70 get up to an inch or so out of it.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 5, 2019 14:35:57 GMT -6
The Euro absolutely lays the hammer down on Iowa and into Chicago on Wednesday. Areas north of I-70 get up to an inch or so out of it. April blizzard please
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 5, 2019 14:59:57 GMT -6
The Euro absolutely lays the hammer down on Iowa and into Chicago on Wednesday. Areas north of I-70 get up to an inch or so out of it. As fun as it is to look at, I just can't buy it. I could see extreme far N IL getting snow...
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Post by maddogchief on Apr 5, 2019 20:27:49 GMT -6
Just when I thought I could put the forum away until next winter, an April snowstorm rears it’s head.
A quick look at the guidance says this is an I-80 storm. That is, if you are looking for accumulation. Could some flakes fly this far south, sure. I actually expect to see some. However, we would need to be in at least the 6” band to get anything to stick long enough to measure it.
All of this being said, a middle April snow matches up well with a middle November snow.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 5, 2019 21:05:17 GMT -6
I would argue that it's harder to get a mid April snow than a mid November snow.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 5, 2019 21:51:47 GMT -6
I would argue that it's harder to get a mid April snow than a mid November snow. Would agree, as does climo...April averages 0.4" of snowfall, November 0.7". Record April snowfall is 6.5", November 11.3".
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Apr 6, 2019 1:24:44 GMT -6
Sure was a foggy drive home tonight.
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Post by maddogchief on Apr 6, 2019 7:00:26 GMT -6
I would argue that it's harder to get a mid April snow than a mid November snow. Would agree, as does climo...April averages 0.4" of snowfall, November 0.7". Record April snowfall is 6.5", November 11.3". Not disagreeing. Just thinking of anomalous bookend winter storms.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 6, 2019 7:45:27 GMT -6
The Euro absolutely lays the hammer down on Iowa and into Chicago on Wednesday. Areas north of I-70 get up to an inch or so out of it. April blizzard please If we're going to get one get it now before the trees are leafing out. That wet heavy snow can do so much damage.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 6, 2019 10:23:35 GMT -6
Models have come back to reality as expected. A very strong upper Midwest blizzard and much more spring like weather for all of us.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 6, 2019 14:21:20 GMT -6
Tomorrow could be our first shot of 80s this season with what looks to be yet another sunny day now but with more favorable southwesterly winds off the Ozarks helping to heat up the air via down slopping as well as the urban heat island doing it's work.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 6, 2019 15:09:51 GMT -6
Nephew and wife are camping with the boy scouts, what time are we expecting storms tonight?
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 6, 2019 20:50:31 GMT -6
Not seeing much rain moving in?? Has it pretty much been axed from the forecast for this evening?
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Post by cozpregon on Apr 6, 2019 20:52:10 GMT -6
NAM 3k has some nice helicity tracks around here tomorrow evening
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 6, 2019 21:49:57 GMT -6
NAM 3k has some nice helicity tracks around here tomorrow evening What's the trigger though? I just don't see much lifting mechanism at all besides for the very weak front that oozes in from the west. It just looks like a very nebulous setup...one of those "wait and see if anything actually develops" scenarios. There's definitely enough instability though...just need something to light the match.
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Post by cozpregon on Apr 6, 2019 21:53:41 GMT -6
Just think if we hit 80 tomorrow it won’t take much
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 6, 2019 22:28:52 GMT -6
Thursday's system doesn't look like it'll do much until after it passes into Illinois precip/storm wise but looks to be a powerhouse wind maker with 45-55kt gusts showing up for most of the area.
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Post by unclesam6 on Apr 7, 2019 2:20:01 GMT -6
Looks like our first warm and muggy day of 2019. I'm willing to bet on a few of those 80s popping up this afternoon, Coz.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 7, 2019 4:45:09 GMT -6
NAM 3k has some nice helicity tracks around here tomorrow evening Just in time for me to fly in from Georgia. It is my USAF weekend and have been down here at Robins AFB near Macon...fly in around 5pm.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 7, 2019 7:01:58 GMT -6
New SPC outlook axes Severe chances for us. I'm thinking we stay predominately sunny today and therefore dry. Wouldn't mind a warm sunny dry week really to help get Spring going and allow stuff to dry up a bit.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 7, 2019 7:03:27 GMT -6
And since it will be Sunny for the week, great time to monitor a huge Jupiter sized sunspot coming into view on the Earth-facing side of the sun if you still have those eclipse glasses from 2017 or some solar filters and a telescope.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 7, 2019 12:34:27 GMT -6
Hrrr has some storms popping up around here this afternoon
Maybe not severe but could be strong
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