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Post by unclesam6 on Apr 11, 2019 21:08:11 GMT -6
NAM further south 00z. Looks like a cutter version of the sloppy wet snow set up from a few weekends ago.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 11, 2019 21:17:28 GMT -6
Not one drop here tonight....
Boooo
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Apr 12, 2019 0:50:47 GMT -6
I’m thankful this one didn’t rain on me. River out here is just about to get back where it normally is.
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Post by Tilawn on Apr 12, 2019 5:04:21 GMT -6
Looks wet late Saturday evening into Sunday midday
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 12, 2019 5:33:20 GMT -6
Yard is just now getting "solid" again, and walkable. Now over an inch of rain will ruin that...plus more midweek. Gross.
NWS says maybe 1-2" of snow in far NW sections Sunday morning, maybe more with intensities likely being heavy. Losers.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 12, 2019 5:41:02 GMT -6
There was a total of 5 severe wx reports yesterday...3 of which were hail in the cold sector...almost unbelievable for a sub 990mb cyclone in the middle of April!
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 12, 2019 6:40:01 GMT -6
Anyone else have 'dirty rain' yesterday? We just had some light showers here, but afterwards the grill (which needs a new cover) and my car and windshield were really dirty with brown drop spots. I read that some of the snow up north may be somewhat brown also. The wind really whipped up the dust in the southern plains, getting digested into the big storm.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 12, 2019 6:54:38 GMT -6
Anyone else have 'dirty rain' yesterday? We just had some light showers here, but afterwards the grill (which needs a new cover) and my car and windshield were really dirty with brown drop spots. I read that some of the snow up north may be somewhat brown also. The wind really whipped up the dust in the southern plains, getting digested into the big storm. Also probably some pollen mixed in with that dirt. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 12, 2019 7:50:44 GMT -6
How bad were things in Minnesota yesterday?
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 12, 2019 8:00:34 GMT -6
Anyone else have 'dirty rain' yesterday? We just had some light showers here, but afterwards the grill (which needs a new cover) and my car and windshield were really dirty with brown drop spots. I read that some of the snow up north may be somewhat brown also. The wind really whipped up the dust in the southern plains, getting digested into the big storm. This fits in with what you said www.weathernationtv.com/news/brown-snow-falls-in-minnesota-from-sand-in-texas/ |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 12, 2019 9:23:11 GMT -6
How bad were things in Minnesota yesterday? Definitely some serious "stay home" weather...unfortunately, patrolling officers don't have that option. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Apr 12, 2019 11:31:56 GMT -6
Here's how I'm spending my afternoon... Hoping I inspire one of these kids.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 12, 2019 12:38:09 GMT -6
12z euro has finally dropped its intensity and associated northwest bias with the weekend storm.
This means that areas like Lincoln county/Troy see heavy snow Sunday morning and even potentially some accumulation on this run.
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Post by ajd446 on Apr 12, 2019 12:38:55 GMT -6
I would not rule out a couple hours of slop in metro west either
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Apr 12, 2019 15:35:25 GMT -6
Here's how I'm spending my afternoon... Hoping I inspire one of these kids. Way to succeed man. Everyone here is very proud of you |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 13, 2019 6:01:15 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 13, 2019 6:03:11 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 13, 2019 8:35:04 GMT -6
12z euro has finally dropped its intensity and associated northwest bias with the weekend storm. This means that areas like Lincoln county/Troy see heavy snow Sunday morning and even potentially some accumulation on this run. It'll be a close call...850mb THKN drops near/below 130dm within the deformation/TROWAL so it's probable that flakes will break through with heavy precip rates. I don't believe I've ever recorded snow this late before so it will be interesting to see how it goes. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 13, 2019 9:11:40 GMT -6
12z euro has finally dropped its intensity and associated northwest bias with the weekend storm. This means that areas like Lincoln county/Troy see heavy snow Sunday morning and even potentially some accumulation on this run. It'll be a close call...850mb THKN drops near/below 130dm within the deformation/TROWAL so it's probable that flakes will break through with heavy precip rates. I don't believe I've ever recorded snow this late before so it will be interesting to see how it goes. The models keep wavering with where the narrow band will setup. I’m hoping for a couple hours of heavy snow, but we shall see. Weather has been crazy the last month, just needed these cyclones a little bit sooner. Severe season is going to be nuts if this pattern persists though. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 13, 2019 9:24:34 GMT -6
NWS added less than a half inch of snow for me tomorrow morning. We shall see.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 13, 2019 12:26:17 GMT -6
Pike county really takes a hit on the 12z euro.
I expect a decent chunk of this board to report some monster flakes tomorrow morning.
Should be a very intense and narrow band of snow surrounded by mixed precipitation.
Very impressive
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 13, 2019 12:30:28 GMT -6
If this were 2 months ago we'd probably be talking 5-10 inches of snow.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 13, 2019 12:38:16 GMT -6
If this were 2 months ago we'd probably be talking 5-10 inches of snow. Potentially more. It is kind of a slap in the face ramming all of these amazing Mid latitude cyclones down our throats in April, but I never say no to snow. Especially since we have to wait at least 6-7 months before we can track another storm. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 13, 2019 13:15:09 GMT -6
I think the NW counties will see some wet flakes but not sold on the metro
It does kind of suck this system isn’t happening a month or two ago. Would likely be a nice winter storm
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Post by unclesam6 on Apr 13, 2019 13:22:59 GMT -6
that complex in Louisana is a chasing nightmare. Bad terrain and a big lumbering complex with epic moisture output slamming into 70-90kts of shear.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 13, 2019 14:12:48 GMT -6
I think the NW counties will see some wet flakes but not sold on the metro It does kind of suck this system isn’t happening a month or two ago. Would likely be a nice winter storm Yeah, we are really riding a fine line with the dry slot along the river...another 25mi shift SE and we'll be in the thick of it. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Apr 13, 2019 14:14:13 GMT -6
I could be wrong, but it sure seems like the EURO has been suffering a cold bias in the medium range as well...but not nearly as bad as the FV3. The FV3 is a complete crap shoot. I’ve been doing a temperature study of all the major models from 12z suite every Sunday and watch what happen over the 7 day period. On average the FV3 is off (too cold) by 6-9* and yesterday it was off by 18* from the 12z suite on Sunday. Euro has been about 2-4 degrees colder than the actual high. Surprisingly the CMC has been pretty consistent with the EURO which also has a 2-4* bias over a consecutive 7 days. All models on day 7 completely suck at temps. GFS has been meh. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 13, 2019 15:06:24 GMT -6
I could be wrong, but it sure seems like the EURO has been suffering a cold bias in the medium range as well...but not nearly as bad as the FV3. The FV3 is a complete crap shoot. I’ve been doing a temperature study of all the major models from 12z suite every Sunday and watch what happen over the 7 day period. On average the FV3 is off (too cold) by 6-9* and yesterday it was off by 18* from the 12z suite on Sunday. Euro has been about 2-4 degrees colder than the actual high. Surprisingly the CMC has been pretty consistent with the EURO which also has a 2-4* bias over a consecutive 7 days. All models on day 7 completely suck at temps. GFS has been meh. [ 7 day temps with these wrapped up lows are going to be hard. The track had STL in the warm and cool sector over that span. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Apr 13, 2019 15:34:28 GMT -6
The FV3 is a complete crap shoot. I’ve been doing a temperature study of all the major models from 12z suite every Sunday and watch what happen over the 7 day period. On average the FV3 is off (too cold) by 6-9* and yesterday it was off by 18* from the 12z suite on Sunday. Euro has been about 2-4 degrees colder than the actual high. Surprisingly the CMC has been pretty consistent with the EURO which also has a 2-4* bias over a consecutive 7 days. All models on day 7 completely suck at temps. GFS has been meh. [ 7 day temps with these wrapped up lows are going to be hard. The track had STL in the warm and cool sector over that span. Agreed but nonetheless an interesting component that needs to be noted because if models are 10+ degrees off as all of then were then that kind of defeats a 7 day temp guidance other than looking for precip in that range. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 13, 2019 17:08:05 GMT -6
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