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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 13, 2019 17:13:31 GMT -6
I could be wrong, but it sure seems like the EURO has been suffering a cold bias in the medium range as well...but not nearly as bad as the FV3. The FV3 is a complete crap shoot. I’ve been doing a temperature study of all the major models from 12z suite every Sunday and watch what happen over the 7 day period. On average the FV3 is off (too cold) by 6-9* and yesterday it was off by 18* from the 12z suite on Sunday. Euro has been about 2-4 degrees colder than the actual high. Surprisingly the CMC has been pretty consistent with the EURO which also has a 2-4* bias over a consecutive 7 days. All models on day 7 completely suck at temps. GFS has been meh. Was that based on MOS forecasts? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 13, 2019 17:25:42 GMT -6
Seems like linear mode is limiting the tornado threat across the Gulf States...the meridional mid-level flow usually favors that more often than not without a strong E component in the PBL and even then discrete cells are tough to maintain.
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Post by ajd446 on Apr 13, 2019 17:30:09 GMT -6
I'm gonba laugh when we get a suprise foot in the morning
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 13, 2019 17:52:43 GMT -6
Don't hold your breath...
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Post by RyanD on Apr 13, 2019 18:23:05 GMT -6
Really cool looking rain clouds outside right now.
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Apr 13, 2019 18:31:57 GMT -6
Really cool looking rain clouds outside right now. Mostly milky here, with a slight purplish tint. Just started to drizzle. |
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Post by ajd446 on Apr 13, 2019 18:53:24 GMT -6
I'm not holding my breathe but these springs snows can be quite unpredictable
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 13, 2019 19:23:14 GMT -6
If this was snow currently on radar, There'd be some pissed people in the immediate metro, and Union. Lol. Nice dry chunk.
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Post by mosue56 on Apr 13, 2019 19:27:46 GMT -6
It’s raining in Festus, jut letting ya’ll know!
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Apr 13, 2019 20:50:50 GMT -6
Looks more impressive on radar then it really is here. Under the oranges but just a light rain falling
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Post by unclesam6 on Apr 13, 2019 21:26:52 GMT -6
Looks more impressive on radar then it really is here. Under the oranges but just a light rain falling The deeper reflectivities are indicative of the melting layer. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Apr 13, 2019 22:48:41 GMT -6
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 14, 2019 0:17:41 GMT -6
Occasionally a pretty good wind gust, but no rhyme or reason that I've been able to figure out. Don't seem to be associated with the heavier rain areas
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Apr 14, 2019 0:18:36 GMT -6
Got some pretty intense winds on the back edge here.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 14, 2019 1:22:45 GMT -6
Winds are cranking here in Arnold
Some of these gust are likely over 40 mph
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Post by cozpregon on Apr 14, 2019 1:28:44 GMT -6
Gusting 50+ here
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Post by cozpregon on Apr 14, 2019 1:30:42 GMT -6
Intense meso low moving thru
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Post by Jeffmw on Apr 14, 2019 2:08:06 GMT -6
The wind is finally calming down. Was up with the wind?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 14, 2019 2:10:32 GMT -6
Holy hell!
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Post by Jeffmw on Apr 14, 2019 2:22:55 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 14, 2019 3:27:54 GMT -6
Pressure dropped almost 8mb in 15 minutes ahead of that mesolow...incredible!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 14, 2019 5:07:27 GMT -6
Had some sleet and snow mixing in the past hour...mid-level low still down around SGF and looks to be wobbling a bit further east.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 14, 2019 5:15:56 GMT -6
Scud just off the deck is screaming out of the north...
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ScottMOfallon
Weather Weenie
O'Fallon, MO
Posts: 43 
Member is Online
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Post by ScottMOfallon on Apr 14, 2019 5:39:49 GMT -6
Snow in Warrenton!
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Post by ajd446 on Apr 14, 2019 5:46:00 GMT -6
Mix in creve couer
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 14, 2019 6:04:18 GMT -6
1.65” of rain and counting ....
On another note, did find another 150 white morels yesterday before they drown
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 14, 2019 6:21:59 GMT -6
Snow broke through for about 15mins here in Brighton.
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Post by Tilawn on Apr 14, 2019 6:22:07 GMT -6
1.25” of rain so far and now SN and 34°
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 14, 2019 6:22:42 GMT -6
1.65” of rain and counting .... On another note, did find another 150 white morels yesterday before they drown Nice...it sure seems like it's shaping up to be a great season! |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Apr 14, 2019 6:23:12 GMT -6
So no so surprise foot?
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