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Post by STGOutdoors on May 2, 2019 10:42:18 GMT -6
If the GFS has its way, next week will look a whole lot like this week. Not good.
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Post by bdgwx on May 2, 2019 10:48:26 GMT -6
I'm in Davenport today. The river is at or near 1993 levels. In fact, the Rock Island gauge is forecasted to crest above the record later today.
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 2, 2019 11:18:52 GMT -6
Any chance the Mississippi River could crest higher than currently projected?
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Post by scmhack on May 2, 2019 11:49:11 GMT -6
I full on expect it to.
Sent from my SM-G892A using proboards
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Post by jmg378s on May 2, 2019 11:58:46 GMT -6
I'm in Davenport today. The river is at or near 1993 levels. In fact, the Rock Island gauge is forecasted to crest above the record later today.
Just now exceeded the 1993 record at the 11:50am observation.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 2, 2019 12:12:36 GMT -6
Getting some street flooding outside my front window. Rain coming down faster than the storm sewer can drain it off. And I don't think the drain is plugged at all. Should go down pretty quick once the rain lets up some
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 2, 2019 13:14:44 GMT -6
If the GFS has its way, next week will look a whole lot like this week. Not good. I'm extremely concerned with next week's setup...it's another firehose/wavy boundary scenario with piecemeal subtropical energy loaded in the SW US and confluence across the N tier...that's going to squeeze out a LOT of rainfall across the mid-section. The major rivers are quickly becoming a dire situation...especially the MS...and it's not going to be a rapid fall at all. This is looking more and more like a multi-month flooding event with several crests and that will put tremendous pressure on the levy system. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 2, 2019 13:16:49 GMT -6
Getting some street flooding outside my front window. Rain coming down faster than the storm sewer can drain it off. And I don't think the drain is plugged at all. Should go down pretty quick once the rain lets up some The ground is completely saturated like a sponge...any precipitation runs off immediately and today's rainfall totals exceeded forecasts locally. This is just not a good situation at all any way you slice it. |
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Post by ajd446 on May 2, 2019 14:11:12 GMT -6
Man st.charles county its reloading again with heavy rain
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 2, 2019 14:22:10 GMT -6
Getting some street flooding outside my front window. Rain coming down faster than the storm sewer can drain it off. And I don't think the drain is plugged at all. Should go down pretty quick once the rain lets up some The ground is completely saturated like a sponge...any precipitation runs off immediately and today's rainfall totals exceeded forecasts locally. This is just not a good situation at all any way you slice it. Yea, pretty much every round has exceeded forecast totals. I was not expecting this much today at all. I'd be willing to bet that Saturday's round ends up being more robust than currently shown as well. And yea about next week... |
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Post by Jeffmw on May 2, 2019 14:24:45 GMT -6
Does Next Week look like Severe Thunderstorms or just heavy rain?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 2, 2019 14:33:02 GMT -6
Some severe potential next week...it is May after all...but the bigger story without a doubt is the heavy rain/flooding potential.
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Post by RyanD on May 2, 2019 14:34:29 GMT -6
Are we looking at lots of rain next week? I plan to open the pool Monday but I may hold off if we are expecting inches of rain next week. I'm so sick of this damm rain! Any help is much app appreciated.
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Post by RyanD on May 2, 2019 14:36:15 GMT -6
Well looks like Btrn may have just answered my question! Lol. I was hoping with the rain chances being 50% or less that it may not be a wash out next week so to speak.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 2, 2019 14:40:04 GMT -6
Frontal boundary is absolutely crawling...thought the rain was done an hour ago at least but it keeps backbuilding.
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Post by Snowman99 on May 2, 2019 14:49:46 GMT -6
If next week ends up like this week I'll be very concerned about the Meramec and Bourbeuse rivers. Won't take as much to cause significant rises. I REALLY don't feel like moving tons and tons of sh*t from the basement and 1st floor of the hotel up to the 2nd and 3rd floors.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 2, 2019 15:21:15 GMT -6
If the GFS has its way, next week will look a whole lot like this week. Not good. I'm extremely concerned with next week's setup...it's another firehose/wavy boundary scenario with piecemeal subtropical energy loaded in the SW US and confluence across the N tier...that's going to squeeze out a LOT of rainfall across the mid-section. The major rivers are quickly becoming a dire situation...especially the MS...and it's not going to be a rapid fall at all. This is looking more and more like a multi-month flooding event with several crests and that will put tremendous pressure on the levy system. If that holds up we may truly be looking at a potential replay of 1993. That would not be good. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 2, 2019 15:41:23 GMT -6
I'm extremely concerned with next week's setup...it's another firehose/wavy boundary scenario with piecemeal subtropical energy loaded in the SW US and confluence across the N tier...that's going to squeeze out a LOT of rainfall across the mid-section. The major rivers are quickly becoming a dire situation...especially the MS...and it's not going to be a rapid fall at all. This is looking more and more like a multi-month flooding event with several crests and that will put tremendous pressure on the levy system. If that holds up we may truly be looking at a potential replay of 1993. That would not be good. The worst part is that while the MS watershed will catch a break into early week as the crest moves downstream, the MO watershed is going to get pounded as that occurs...that setup is very 93ish with both rivers running high at the same time. And then the heavy rains move back over the MS/IL basins again later in the week which will at the least delay the fall and at worst bring another higher crest. Let's hope this pattern breaks down before the true MCS season ramps up...that's what really set off the record flooding in 93 was the back to back complexes up north that just dumped on the Upper Midwest. But as Sullivan said, every flood is different. |
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Post by nascarfan999 on May 2, 2019 16:58:29 GMT -6
If that holds up we may truly be looking at a potential replay of 1993. That would not be good. The worst part is that while the MS watershed will catch a break into early week as the crest moves downstream, the MO watershed is going to get pounded as that occurs...that setup is very 93ish with both rivers running high at the same time. And then the heavy rains move back over the MS/IL basins again later in the week which will at the least delay the fall and at worst bring another higher crest. Let's hope this pattern breaks down before the true MCS season ramps up...that's what really set off the record flooding in 93 was the back to back complexes up north that just dumped on the Upper Midwest. But as Sullivan said, every flood is different. Does anyone know if and where I could find the day to day recording of river levels from 1993? I would like to compare the rate of rise then vs now as it is amazing how much and how fast the Mississippi has risen this week. The Alton gauge was just below 24 ft on Tuesday afternoon and the projected crest Sunday afternoon is 35.5 ft, an 11.5 ft rise in 5 days. What is extra worrisome is that the potential for a repeat would exist but with a higher "starting" position for at least the next 2 weeks. The current projection which as I understand has no additional rain beyond 48 hours has the river falling to 26 ft by May 16th. In other words, we could go 2 weeks with no rain at all and even then if we get a repeat of this week, we would still be in a worse position after that than we are looking at this weekend. I know 1993 had multiple crests throughout the spring/summer, but am curious if the rises were this severe. My guess is that they were not and the rises are worse due to all of the new/upgraded levees built since 1993. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 2, 2019 17:09:30 GMT -6
The worst part is that while the MS watershed will catch a break into early week as the crest moves downstream, the MO watershed is going to get pounded as that occurs...that setup is very 93ish with both rivers running high at the same time. And then the heavy rains move back over the MS/IL basins again later in the week which will at the least delay the fall and at worst bring another higher crest. Let's hope this pattern breaks down before the true MCS season ramps up...that's what really set off the record flooding in 93 was the back to back complexes up north that just dumped on the Upper Midwest. But as Sullivan said, every flood is different. Does anyone know if and where I could find the day to day recording of river levels from 1993? I would like to compare the rate of rise then vs now as it is amazing how much and how fast the Mississippi has risen this week. The Alton gauge was just below 24 ft on Tuesday afternoon and the projected crest Sunday afternoon is 35.5 ft, an 11.5 ft rise in 5 days. What is extra worrisome is that the potential for a repeat would exist but with a higher "starting" position for at least the next 2 weeks. The current projection which as I understand has no additional rain beyond 48 hours has the river falling to 26 ft by May 16th. In other words, we could go 2 weeks with no rain at all and even then if we get a repeat of this week, we would still be in a worse position after that than we are looking at this weekend. I know 1993 had multiple crests throughout the spring/summer, but am curious if the rises were this severe. My guess is that they were not and the rises are worse due to all of the new/upgraded levees built since 1993. It's a little hard to read because of whatever image transfer process they used. But here's a paper someone wrote on the 93 flood. It has a graph of STL river stages for July and August. www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hrl/papers/area/great.htm |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 2, 2019 18:04:24 GMT -6
The worst part is that while the MS watershed will catch a break into early week as the crest moves downstream, the MO watershed is going to get pounded as that occurs...that setup is very 93ish with both rivers running high at the same time. And then the heavy rains move back over the MS/IL basins again later in the week which will at the least delay the fall and at worst bring another higher crest. Let's hope this pattern breaks down before the true MCS season ramps up...that's what really set off the record flooding in 93 was the back to back complexes up north that just dumped on the Upper Midwest. But as Sullivan said, every flood is different. Does anyone know if and where I could find the day to day recording of river levels from 1993? I would like to compare the rate of rise then vs now as it is amazing how much and how fast the Mississippi has risen this week. The Alton gauge was just below 24 ft on Tuesday afternoon and the projected crest Sunday afternoon is 35.5 ft, an 11.5 ft rise in 5 days. What is extra worrisome is that the potential for a repeat would exist but with a higher "starting" position for at least the next 2 weeks. The current projection which as I understand has no additional rain beyond 48 hours has the river falling to 26 ft by May 16th. In other words, we could go 2 weeks with no rain at all and even then if we get a repeat of this week, we would still be in a worse position after that than we are looking at this weekend. I know 1993 had multiple crests throughout the spring/summer, but am curious if the rises were this severe. My guess is that they were not and the rises are worse due to all of the new/upgraded levees built since 1993. That last part is so true...the levee system is absolutely a double edged sword! The network of levees keep floodwaters from backing into natural wetlands and as a result increases stream flow and velocity. And I see a lot of examples of people arguing flooding severity and frequency as a side effect of climate change but they fail to capture or consider changes in land use and practices over the years. Much in the same way poor land use and farming practices made the dust bowl exponentially worse, the same can be said for flooding. There's a strong argument being made currently that the upward trend of excessive field tile usage on cropland is making runoff much more rapid leading to increased flooding risk downstream. We're going to have to start having some serious discussions about what can and needs to be done to mitigate flooding risk or it will continue to get worse. You only have to look back to 2016 to see a similar flooding event... |
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Post by nascarfan999 on May 2, 2019 18:29:28 GMT -6
Does anyone know if and where I could find the day to day recording of river levels from 1993? I would like to compare the rate of rise then vs now as it is amazing how much and how fast the Mississippi has risen this week. The Alton gauge was just below 24 ft on Tuesday afternoon and the projected crest Sunday afternoon is 35.5 ft, an 11.5 ft rise in 5 days. What is extra worrisome is that the potential for a repeat would exist but with a higher "starting" position for at least the next 2 weeks. The current projection which as I understand has no additional rain beyond 48 hours has the river falling to 26 ft by May 16th. In other words, we could go 2 weeks with no rain at all and even then if we get a repeat of this week, we would still be in a worse position after that than we are looking at this weekend. I know 1993 had multiple crests throughout the spring/summer, but am curious if the rises were this severe. My guess is that they were not and the rises are worse due to all of the new/upgraded levees built since 1993. That last part is so true...the levee system is absolutely a double edged sword! The network of levees keep floodwaters from backing into natural wetlands and as a result increases stream flow and velocity. And I see a lot of examples of people arguing flooding severity and frequency as a side effect of climate change but they fail to capture or consider changes in land use and practices over the years. Much in the same way poor land use and farming practices made the dust bowl exponentially worse, the same can be said for flooding. There's a strong argument being made currently that the upward trend of excessive field tile usage on cropland is making runoff much more rapid leading to increased flooding risk downstream. We're going to have to start having some serious discussions about what can and needs to be done to mitigate flooding risk or it will continue to get worse. You only have to look back to 2016 to see a similar flooding event... Obviously every flood is different, but the one comparison I could draw from that report on '93 is the current rise at the St. Louis gauge. The St. Louis gauge had fallen to around 30.3' midday of 4/30 and is projected to crest at 42.5' on the evening of 5/5.That is a 12.2' rise in just over 5 days. Comparing the similar levels in '93, the river was around 32' on July 3rd and rose to a crest at 43' on July 12th. Thus in '93 it took 9 days to rise 11 feet compared to 5 days to rise 12 feet this year. I would love to be able to do this across the dozens of reporting sites if the '93 data is available as this one comparison doesn't prove anything. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on May 2, 2019 19:01:08 GMT -6
I can say this, our family has owned this property since 1948 along the meremac in st Clair. Never has it flooded like this until 2008. Then again in 2015 and again in 2017. Yes it flooded, but never to the extremes that it does now. The old timers all blame the levees down stream. I don’t know if that’s the reason but there are whole neighborhoods that flood now that didn’t before and these houses have been here a long time.
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Post by bdgwx on May 2, 2019 19:10:52 GMT -6
It's the levee system (plus other factors). Dr. Criss from Washington University has peer reviewed research regarding the Meramec River flooding problems. Here is one of his papers. link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12583-016-0639-yBy the way Chris, this guy might be a good candidate for an interview if you're ever looking for a story idea. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 2, 2019 19:25:45 GMT -6
The worst part is that while the MS watershed will catch a break into early week as the crest moves downstream, the MO watershed is going to get pounded as that occurs...that setup is very 93ish with both rivers running high at the same time. And then the heavy rains move back over the MS/IL basins again later in the week which will at the least delay the fall and at worst bring another higher crest. Let's hope this pattern breaks down before the true MCS season ramps up...that's what really set off the record flooding in 93 was the back to back complexes up north that just dumped on the Upper Midwest. But as Sullivan said, every flood is different. Does anyone know if and where I could find the day to day recording of river levels from 1993? I would like to compare the rate of rise then vs now as it is amazing how much and how fast the Mississippi has risen this week. The Alton gauge was just below 24 ft on Tuesday afternoon and the projected crest Sunday afternoon is 35.5 ft, an 11.5 ft rise in 5 days. What is extra worrisome is that the potential for a repeat would exist but with a higher "starting" position for at least the next 2 weeks. The current projection which as I understand has no additional rain beyond 48 hours has the river falling to 26 ft by May 16th. In other words, we could go 2 weeks with no rain at all and even then if we get a repeat of this week, we would still be in a worse position after that than we are looking at this weekend. I know 1993 had multiple crests throughout the spring/summer, but am curious if the rises were this severe. My guess is that they were not and the rises are worse due to all of the new/upgraded levees built since 1993. You also might watch through this video. My mom recorded local and national news segments during the summer of 1993. There may be mentions of the river stages in these reports. m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=qSaV39vfkyY |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 2, 2019 19:54:08 GMT -6
Tornado touched down near Caruthersville this afternoon. I've got no information on damage or injuries. From the video! Saw it appeared to be a rural area.
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on May 2, 2019 20:06:36 GMT -6
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on May 2, 2019 23:50:04 GMT -6
Doesn’t look like much of anything on radar but have a steady shower for the last few hours.
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padlur
Junior Forecaster
Ballwin(by the golf course)
Posts: 304 
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Post by padlur on May 3, 2019 7:17:49 GMT -6
Showers building near Washington and steadily moving East from that point...going to be a wet drizly long morning it looks like outside
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on May 3, 2019 8:15:25 GMT -6
I just got some very exciting news! For those of you who don't know, I am the Program Lead/Teacher for a Middle School Intervention Program in the Wentzville School District. We work with Middle School kids who are having trouble connecting to school for a variety of reasons. In the program we do a lot of project based learning.
This morning, I was awarded a $500 grant for a project I proposed. We are going to launch a weather balloon! I would love to pick the forum's brains over the next few months for any ideas/suggestions. I have already done a bit of research on how to launch and hold the payload, but would love any ideas you have about cameras, instrumentation, places to buy equipment, etc.
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