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Post by STGOutdoors on May 25, 2019 21:35:30 GMT -6
That's a lot more rain falling into the MO and MS River watershed tonight. Bad news. We need a break into June or it'll be a bad deal.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 26, 2019 0:42:29 GMT -6
Looks like another outflow boundary is moving in from the north. Not sure if it will do anything. And then another waaaaay out in western Mo moving this way.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 26, 2019 1:11:21 GMT -6
Confirmed fatalities from a tornado in El Reno, OK which is 30 miles west of OKC. Among the structures hit was a hotel.
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Post by cozpregon on May 26, 2019 1:28:55 GMT -6
I'm not ready to go all in with expectations of 1993-level flooding...but the similarities can't be denied. That was an extreme event and right now I don't expect a crest that will meet or exceed those levels but it is a possibility. It seems like the pattern wants to relax a bit as we head into June...hopefully that's the case. I agree with the 93 comparison- but just like us- every city upstream have added flood protection/walls. I don’t think there is any way to compare it just by looking at the flood stage |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 26, 2019 8:15:46 GMT -6
I'm not ready to go all in with expectations of 1993-level flooding...but the similarities can't be denied. That was an extreme event and right now I don't expect a crest that will meet or exceed those levels but it is a possibility. It seems like the pattern wants to relax a bit as we head into June...hopefully that's the case. I agree with the 93 comparison- but just like us- every city upstream have added flood protection/walls. I don’t think there is any way to compare it just by looking at the flood stage You're absolutely right...changes in land use and water control measures have made significant impacts to flood potential...IMO significant flood events are exponentially more likely to occur now than 10-20 years ago. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 26, 2019 8:28:15 GMT -6
I agree with the 93 comparison- but just like us- every city upstream have added flood protection/walls. I don’t think there is any way to compare it just by looking at the flood stage You're absolutely right...changes in land use and water control measures have made significant impacts to flood potential...IMO significant flood events are exponentially more likely to occur now than 10-20 years ago. No question. My reference to 93 is more about continued rain and continued high water... not necessarily that we will reach those levels...but I would not discount the possibility either. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 26, 2019 9:05:46 GMT -6
In this vein a friend visiting family about 30 miles west of Kirksville in Milan, MO reports (unofficially) 6" of rain overnight.
It just keeps coming
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 26, 2019 9:20:26 GMT -6
In this vein a friend visiting family about 30 miles west of Kirksville in Milan, MO reports (unofficially) 6" of rain overnight. It just keeps coming That's draining directly into the MO via the Chariton River...not good. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 26, 2019 9:44:10 GMT -6
When you look at the radar and estimated precip amounts, just remember how big the MO and MS River watersheds are. Pretty much anything falling over the northern half of Kansas ends up at the MS in Stl. That's not even mentioning Iowa, Nebraska, etc.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on May 26, 2019 10:32:59 GMT -6
Looking at Meremac at Arnold crest Monday through Sunday basically a flat line at 38.5 feet. That would mean it would remain at 38.5 feet for 7 days. Seems just weird given Mississippi River is not consistent during that time.  Any thoughts why/how it’s consistent for so long? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 26, 2019 10:37:20 GMT -6
Looking at Meremac at Arnold crest Monday through Sunday basically a flat line at 38.5 feet. That would mean it would remain at 38.5 feet for 7 days. Seems just weird given Mississippi River is not consistent during that time. Any thoughts why/how it’s consistent for so long? Backpressure from the MS...I'm sure there will be some small fluctuations but that's an average over several days. |
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Post by bdgwx on May 26, 2019 16:35:53 GMT -6
El Reno got hit by yet another deadly tornado last night.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 26, 2019 21:07:05 GMT -6
El Reno got hit by yet another deadly tornado last night. Yes, how awful! |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on May 26, 2019 21:45:40 GMT -6
We got back from vacation today, and since our plane was late we are driving up 29 in the dark with thunderboomers. The lightning highlighting the flooded fields on both sides of the interstate is awful. Flying in we got a bird's eye view of the river flooding in STL. It looks bad.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on May 26, 2019 22:14:34 GMT -6
And the rain is still pouring. One interesting thing I noticed was that the air on 29 smelled like river/worms/fish. Not going to be an easy job for the farmers to clean up
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 27, 2019 0:58:01 GMT -6
And the rain is still pouring. One interesting thing I noticed was that the air on 29 smelled like river/worms/fish. Not going to be an easy job for the farmers to clean up That's one of the things I remember from the 93 flood. Drove through West Alton in October; more than a month after the water had receded. All the ground where there would ordinarily have been grass like one roadside ditches and people's yards was barren dirt and that smell of rancid, dead fish roasting in the sun that you describe was everywhere. |
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ilnois
Wishcaster
Columbia, IL
Posts: 123
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Post by ilnois on May 27, 2019 7:23:11 GMT -6
Anyone think the stuff in SW MO will maintain and make it to middle of viewing area? Any point of view? Trying to plant corn today.
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Post by Snowman99 on May 27, 2019 7:34:24 GMT -6
I've been wrong before, lol, but I think that stuff will weaken before it gets here.The ridge should make them dwindle.
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Post by Snowman99 on May 27, 2019 7:45:28 GMT -6
On a FB post a little while ago, Chris said he thinks they'll scoot to our northwest.
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ilnois
Wishcaster
Columbia, IL
Posts: 123
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Post by ilnois on May 27, 2019 7:45:43 GMT -6
I've been wrong before, lol, but I think that stuff will weaken before it gets here.The ridge should make them dwindle. Thank you sir! |
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Post by rb1108 on May 27, 2019 8:02:24 GMT -6
Tomorrow night looks active around here yet again.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 27, 2019 8:09:41 GMT -6
Chris thought I'd mention you looked quite dapper and very summer like this morning. The light colored sport coat gives a different and I thought it looked great
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 27, 2019 8:21:06 GMT -6
And this happened yesterday about 10 miles north of Chugwater, Wyoming. From the NWS in Cheyenne  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 27, 2019 9:25:24 GMT -6
Thinking the NW half of the area will need to watch the MCS lifting across S/central MO early this afternoon...no signs of weakening yet and there's partial clearing/destabilization occurring downstream.
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Post by ComoEsJn on May 27, 2019 9:27:43 GMT -6
Thinking the NW half of the area will need to watch the MCS lifting across S/central MO early this afternoon...no signs of weakening yet and there's partial clearing/destabilization occurring downstream. do you think it makes it to STL County? or not that far SE? |
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Post by Snowman99 on May 27, 2019 9:43:43 GMT -6
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Post by REB on May 27, 2019 9:47:17 GMT -6
It is nasty miserable outside.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 27, 2019 10:12:46 GMT -6
Yes the storms do look to be weakening.
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Post by unclesam6 on May 27, 2019 10:50:35 GMT -6
shriveling up like a dead plum
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 27, 2019 11:13:51 GMT -6
shriveling up like a dead plum Thanks to the lack of/diminishing convergence... and building warm air aloft/capping inversion. But... I have to admit I was getting nervous as it tracked across the Lake of the Ozarks  |
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