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Post by Jeffmw on May 17, 2019 12:17:42 GMT -6
People were complaining about the cold and wet wanting it to be warm. Now complaining never fails to make me laugh.
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Post by toddatfarmington on May 17, 2019 12:18:14 GMT -6
Recap from NWS conference call this afternoon: Saturday Severe: Uncertainty remains as to storm evolution, wind and hail main threat, couple rounds of storms, early non severe, later development will pose risk of some severe storms. SPC has shifted the Slight risk east. www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.htmlTuesday Severe: Uncertainty remains with destabilization due to early convection and cloud cover, however did note this is one of the best severe weather setups in our area in some time. SPC notes the uncertainty in their disco: www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/Flooding: Trends are concerning, especially on the Mississippi and Missouri, they expect based on current data to see crests rival those of earlier this month. |
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Post by bdgwx on May 17, 2019 12:54:16 GMT -6
Tuesday has my attention right now. There is a big spread between the UKMET and Euro right now in the positioning and timing of the front. The UKMET is really far west. GFS/PGFS are more in line with the Euro. The Euro has a 981mb low at 18Z on Tues. As Todd already mentioned overnight convection and clouds might mitigate the severe risk though.
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Post by Snowman99 on May 17, 2019 13:03:46 GMT -6
People were complaining about the cold and wet wanting it to be warm. Now complaining never fails to make me laugh. That's because it's not warm. It's hot. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 17, 2019 14:44:56 GMT -6
18z Hi res NAM has a nasty looking squall line moving through the area tomorrow night
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 17, 2019 14:48:43 GMT -6
That is a ton of low level shear tomorrow night just ahead of that squall line  |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 17, 2019 15:29:22 GMT -6
Finally, I've been waiting to hear some updates on our potential severe weather from the experts. Lol
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 17, 2019 17:11:52 GMT -6
People were complaining about the cold and wet wanting it to be warm. Now complaining never fails to make me laugh. That's because it's not warm. It's hot. And because it was such a rapid transition from near record low to near record high within a week |
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Post by yypc on May 17, 2019 17:36:18 GMT -6
I passed on a job promotion opportunity in Phoenix last week because I figured the summers would be too hot (I hate hot weather) and of course the past few days and next week its as hot or hotter here than it is in Phoenix 😡
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on May 17, 2019 21:12:56 GMT -6
I passed on a job promotion opportunity in Phoenix last week because I figured the summers would be too hot (I hate hot weather) and of course the past few days and next week its as hot or hotter here than it is in Phoenix 😡 ...but it’s a dry h... |
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Post by jeepers on May 17, 2019 23:23:57 GMT -6
I knew a guy that literally kept an oven mitt in his car in order to use his stick shift in the summer in Phoenix. I was there once in August. Friend’s water pump blew up two miles from home and we had to hike back. I was cured of considering living in the desert.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 18, 2019 7:55:30 GMT -6
I passed on a job promotion opportunity in Phoenix last week because I figured the summers would be too hot (I hate hot weather) and of course the past few days and next week its as hot or hotter here than it is in Phoenix 😡 But it's a dry heat!  |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 18, 2019 9:12:18 GMT -6
Hows our severe threat looking BRTN?
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Post by Snowman99 on May 18, 2019 9:21:14 GMT -6
43 tornado reports yesterday through 7am this morning out in the Plains. More have already occurred this morning. Tor watch for west and sw MO now, Honestly I don't see much severe here through tonight. Probably fall apart before arriving, and or weaken a lot. Tuesday could be interesting. Could
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 18, 2019 9:30:15 GMT -6
Tough convective forecast here for this evening...tonight...and tomorrow for that matter.
Ongoing convection in OK/TX is quite robust for so early in the day in that part of the country.
Most of the hires models are on the same page with bringing a strong/severe line of LEWPY storms up I-44 into western and central Missouri late this afternoon into this evening...with storms running out of steam as they approach the Mississippi River....undergoing a transition from severe to non-severe just west of the STL metro...in close agreement with the SPC outlook. This occurs as nocturnal instability trends downward. History has shown that these things survive longer than most models indicate...so I am inclined to carry the severe threat a little further east than indicated on the explicit model runs.
Of great concern is the lone outlier...the RAP... which maintains substantially more CAPE/instability over our area just in advance of the line...and hence maintains the severe threat further east. In fact, the RAP soundings for the middle of the night are downright alarming...with impressive CAPE...low level shear...SRH...sigTOR...etc..all the right ingredients for a dangerous overnight QLCS event with embedded tornadoes. The magnitude of the parameters is very concerning...and makes it tough to ignore. However, it is also all out on its own. It does not appear to have as good a handle on the current state of organized convection in OK and TX...which seems unlikely to dissipate or weaken anytime soon.
I will be posting an outlook for this evening and tonight...that will give some respect to the RAP... but recognize the fact that it seems too robust with overnight instability...
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 18, 2019 9:54:49 GMT -6
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399 
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Post by lunchladyd on May 18, 2019 10:52:31 GMT -6
Thanks for the update Chris. We may have to cut this camping trip short. Especially since we are in tents. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 18, 2019 11:35:16 GMT -6
Tornado really tore up San Angelo, TX this morning. Haven't heard anything about injuries. And lots of impressive hail reports all across the western Plains; up to 3" diameter in western Nebraska.
I like thunderstorms but that stuff can stay away!!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 18, 2019 12:04:41 GMT -6
If this materializes...YIKES! Our rivers will right back up.  |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 18, 2019 13:19:45 GMT -6
Thanks Chris for the update.
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Post by jmg378s on May 18, 2019 14:49:26 GMT -6
You can clearly see the difference in air masses along and east of the Mississippi by looking at the cumulus field. Latest modeling from HRRR & 3kNAM still show very little if any additional destabilization through this area. In general I think the SPC's eastern placement of the slight risk is ok for now.  |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on May 18, 2019 15:44:15 GMT -6
Had no idea I was under a watch. My phone use to tell me these things.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 18, 2019 15:48:48 GMT -6
Looks like Severe Thunderstorm watch for western/southern counties until midnight. Not sure if NWS will extend it to others later or not??  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 18, 2019 17:08:01 GMT -6
Line is holding together pretty well so far and the whole thing is tstorm warned. Must be a decent wind producer.
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Post by Snowman99 on May 18, 2019 17:15:51 GMT -6
Ten bucks says that in the heavier area on radar on 44 moves right over me. Hahaha
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Post by jmg378s on May 18, 2019 17:36:01 GMT -6
Watch expanded to include the metro counties. Still some 50-55kt winds aloft showing up on base velocity. But how much farther will it get before it weakens? Not much instability out ahead of this line...  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 18, 2019 17:37:32 GMT -6
Yea looks line portions of the line are starting to fall apart a bit.
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Post by Tilawn on May 18, 2019 18:02:46 GMT -6
Radar is not accurate here at my house. There are red and yellow returns over me and I barely have a sprinkle hitting the ground
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on May 18, 2019 18:12:03 GMT -6
Meh
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Post by jmg378s on May 18, 2019 18:12:18 GMT -6
IR temps warming (cloud tops collapsing) and convection looks much less vigorous on radar. Not to mention rain is barely reaching the ground under some returns per Tilawns report. Looks like this line is running out of steam quickly.
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