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Post by Tilawn on May 18, 2019 18:21:47 GMT -6
Did get 40+ mph winds and just .01 in the rain gauge.
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Post by Snowman99 on May 18, 2019 18:27:03 GMT -6
what a waste
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Post by bear1 on May 18, 2019 18:36:54 GMT -6
It appears to have followed along the the Meramac river out here in MBY. Had a couple of wind gusts & a few pings of hail & then some fairly heavy rain for about 2 mins.... Now is all quite & the pets have settled down... ,16" in the acurite rain gauge & temps at 62° now.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on May 18, 2019 18:39:09 GMT -6
Had a quick shower, the leaves moved a tad bit, and the temp dropped.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 18, 2019 18:50:05 GMT -6
Pretty pathetic! Meh
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 18, 2019 18:50:17 GMT -6
Yeah, we really needed the rain... |
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Post by Snowman99 on May 18, 2019 18:54:29 GMT -6
Yeah, we really needed the rain... Did anyone say anything about wanting a lot rain? A decent storm to last 10 minutes and blow thru would have been nice. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 18, 2019 19:15:41 GMT -6
Ya we cant seem to manage a good storm in STL this season. Been very quite. Rainfall not so much...
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Post by jmg378s on May 18, 2019 20:28:19 GMT -6
The latest Euro has like 1000-1500 j/kg max SBCAPE, 60-70 kts of bulk shear, 3km SRH or 400 m2/s2, and 0.5km shear of 30kts Tuesday afternoon/evening along and south of I-70 with convective precip showing up. GFS has a similar look. There are some reasons to be skeptical (narrow warm sector, occluding low in CO/KS, degree of destabilization, etc.) but in any case hard pass for me on that!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 18, 2019 21:46:17 GMT -6
I’m alittle skeptical of Tuesday evening to, but this is a classic loaded gun sounding on the NAM  |
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Post by cozpregon on May 18, 2019 21:52:36 GMT -6
Hodograph is impressive
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Post by jmg378s on May 18, 2019 22:07:31 GMT -6
Yep. Looks similar on latest GFS too. Certainly a potent kinematic environment.
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Post by bdgwx on May 18, 2019 22:10:24 GMT -6
0Z GFS has some pretty potent looking soundings as well.
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Post by cozpregon on May 18, 2019 22:55:01 GMT -6
Yep- that's concerning
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 19, 2019 6:04:20 GMT -6
Given suffecient destabilization, Tuesday is a day to watch closely for sure...lots of wind energy with backed low-levels. Given that and the meridional flow in the mid-levels, I would say a LEWP or squall line will develop with potential for bow echoes and mesovorticies/embedded supercells with all severe risks on the table. Strongest instability(1000-1500j/kg SBCAPE) looks to develop across the S half of the area where clear skies are most likely...but everyone will be under the gun from the look of things.
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Post by rb1108 on May 19, 2019 7:30:13 GMT -6
Yeah, we really needed the rain... Did anyone say anything about wanting a lot rain? A decent storm to last 10 minutes and blow thru would have been nice. Speak for yourself. Had a 10 minute storm of lots of wind and hail...and then no electric from 6:30pm to 1am. I would of happily passed on storms if it meant no power for hours. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 19, 2019 12:09:42 GMT -6
Tomorrow looks like a major severe outbreak for the southern plains. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a high risk issued
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Post by bdgwx on May 19, 2019 12:19:05 GMT -6
You beat me to it 920. 12Z HRRR and SREF makes a strong case for a high risk day tomorrow in SW OK.
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Post by bdgwx on May 19, 2019 12:23:42 GMT -6
On Tuesday and closer to home there is high confidence that a strongly forced QLCS will move through MO. The 12Z model suite seems to suggest this line may reach peak intensity as it approaches the western counties and immediate metro area. We need to keep an eye on this.
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 19, 2019 16:06:48 GMT -6
Blues one win away from going to the finals...unbelievable!
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Post by Jeffmw on May 19, 2019 16:23:14 GMT -6
Lets hope we can get this threat of storms out of the way for Tuesday.
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Post by Snowman99 on May 19, 2019 18:38:34 GMT -6
All classes and activities have been cancelled tomorrow for Oklahoma City Public schools because of the severe threat. Heh.
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 19, 2019 19:18:26 GMT -6
All classes and activities have been cancelled tomorrow for Oklahoma City Public schools because of the severe threat. Heh. May as well. Especially after Moore in 2013. |
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Post by Snowman99 on May 19, 2019 20:08:52 GMT -6
The 00z HRRR is filthy tomorrow from late morning into evening over OK. It's a supe special.
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Post by bdgwx on May 19, 2019 20:18:10 GMT -6
The 0Z HRRR is angry. I mean like REALLY angry.
Anyway, it has like 8" of rain for SGF by Tuesday morning. The 18Z GFS had like 0.20". I bet that has Springfield mets scratching their heads right now.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 19, 2019 21:04:42 GMT -6
Sounding near Eureka, Mo Tuesday evening. Yikes  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 19, 2019 21:27:34 GMT -6
Looks like a remnant MCS for Tuesday Morning with a break most of the afternoon for Metro St. Louis with the main show (for us) coming around 7-10 PM Tuesday evening with a very strong and mean looking QLCS Line as mentioned earlier with a fast hit of damaging winds some hail (about nickel to ping pong ball sized and some spin-up tornadoes where there is any 'kinks' in the main line or any single cells that can form ahead of it, but capping will be an issue until the main lift gets here so the overall risk of anything discrete is small.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 19, 2019 21:32:19 GMT -6
Looking to this weekend and next week it's looking like a possibility of a repeat performance of the last week of May and first week of June 2004 when I first moved here. Zonal to slightly northwesterly flow with a strong southeast ridge sending up loads of moisture which will fire along a stationary front with multiple MCCs one every 18-24 hours or so which could set up a foot plus of rain where multiple complexes train over the same areas. Only main difference from 2004 is that the rivers are considerably higher now than back then when we were coming out of a mild dry spell. This time it's the opposite. We're in a wet spell with high to already flooded rivers. Missouri and Mississippi River convergence area into the western Ohio Rivers are going to be flooding perhaps to near record values if the worse case scenario pans out.
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Post by Snowman99 on May 20, 2019 0:03:47 GMT -6
High risk for sw and OK and adjacent area of TX.
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Post by Snowman99 on May 20, 2019 0:15:49 GMT -6
And an enhanced risk for our area in Tuesday
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