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Post by jmg378s on Jun 2, 2019 13:09:56 GMT -6
NHC gives 91L in the Bay of Campeche 60% odds of developing. It appears steering currents will be from the south due to the slowly approaching southwestern trough, but it's definitely not clear what the ultimate fate of that tropical system will be and how the interaction with the trough will work out. Though, it looks like a tropical air mass with PW possibly approaching 2.0" is going to funneled up into our area regardless. It's merely one possible outcome, but the most recent UKMET does not look good. It's fair to say it's pretty wet on that run through day 6.  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 2, 2019 14:53:50 GMT -6
Boy, the muggies will be in full force. Can't wait.
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 2, 2019 18:04:30 GMT -6
The Morganza Spillway in Louisiana will be opened on June 6th. This will only be the 3rd opening since its construction in 1954. This is done to control flooding further downstream and more importantly to prevent the Mississippi River from changing course and bypassing Baton Rouge and New Orleans. The Baton Rouge gauge has been in flood stage since December. This breaks the old record for longevity of a single flood event. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 2, 2019 19:25:27 GMT -6
NHC gives 91L in the Bay of Campeche 60% odds of developing. It appears steering currents will be from the south due to the slowly approaching southwestern trough, but it's definitely not clear what the ultimate fate of that tropical system will be and how the interaction with the trough will work out. Though, it looks like a tropical air mass with PW possibly approaching 2.0" is going to funneled up into our area regardless. It's merely one possible outcome, but the most recent UKMET does not look good. It's fair to say it's pretty wet on that run through day 6. Yikes...hopefully that's overdone. It's definitely looking like the pattern is going to favor heavy rainfall across the region...ripe setup for waves of tropical downpours. NOT what the rivers and farmers need right now. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jun 2, 2019 21:31:21 GMT -6
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 3, 2019 4:29:03 GMT -6
That's pretty cool. It might be interesting to point out that the sky appears washed out in that picture because of the wildfire smoke. Here is the HRRR smoke analysis at the time the picture was taken.  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 3, 2019 4:47:11 GMT -6
bdgwx is viral. Yikes
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 3, 2019 9:02:23 GMT -6
That's pretty cool. It might be interesting to point out that the sky appears washed out in that picture because of the wildfire smoke. Here is the HRRR smoke analysis at the time the picture was taken. Been socked in for several days now...it's not super thick but definitely a noticeable reddish/orange haze hanging around. |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jun 3, 2019 11:16:01 GMT -6
That's a lot of smoke! Is all of Quebec on fire??
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 3, 2019 13:05:19 GMT -6
That's a lot of smoke! Is all of Quebec on fire?? Looks like Alberta...surprising considering the epic amounts of snowfall up there this past winter. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 3, 2019 13:14:41 GMT -6
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Post by red12 Hillsboro,mo on Jun 3, 2019 15:07:21 GMT -6
What's everyone thoughts on the meramec river in Arnold I'm think I55 will be shut down if we get more rain
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Jun 3, 2019 15:56:37 GMT -6
Click on it to make it bigger. It's a circumzenithal arc. (also called an upside down rainbow) This is from a friend of a friend in KC. Cool, huh? Attachment Deleted |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 3, 2019 16:59:24 GMT -6
What's everyone thoughts on the meramec river in Arnold I'm think I55 will be shut down if we get more rain That is an impossible question to answer. |
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jun 3, 2019 17:05:50 GMT -6
Saw a sign on 255 before RT 3 Columbia exit that the bridge at Chester is closed but I haven’t been able to find verification online. News hasn’t mentioned it.
Edit: it closed yesterday morning, I just missed that news.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 3, 2019 17:07:03 GMT -6
I had it on air last Friday... it was supposed to close over the weekend.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jun 3, 2019 17:10:05 GMT -6
What's everyone thoughts on the meramec river in Arnold I'm think I55 will be shut down if we get more rain That is an impossible question to answer. I don't remember.. did it close in '93? |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jun 3, 2019 17:18:55 GMT -6
Big thing will be what we get this week. Meremac by me is down to normal levels but if we get 3+ inches of rain it’s gotta go somewhere and it will hit a wall of flood water by the time it gets to Arnold.
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Post by red12 Hillsboro,mo on Jun 3, 2019 17:20:27 GMT -6
That is an impossible question to answer. I don't remember.. did it close in '93? 2015 it closed highway 21 closes at 42.9 per nws website. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jun 3, 2019 17:45:54 GMT -6
Saw a sign on 255 before RT 3 Columbia exit that the bridge at Chester is closed but I haven’t been able to find verification online. News hasn’t mentioned it. Edit: it closed yesterday morning, I just missed that news. Chester bridge is closed. |
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Post by nascarfan999 on Jun 3, 2019 18:10:43 GMT -6
Anybody know what is going on with the Missouri River at St. Charles? The level is rapidly and unexpectedly dropping and I'm not sure if there's been a breech in the area or if it is a gauge malfunction.  |
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Post by nascarfan999 on Jun 3, 2019 18:22:26 GMT -6
What's everyone thoughts on the meramec river in Arnold I'm think I55 will be shut down if we get more rain The "good" news is that pretty much all of the Meramec flooding thus far has come from Mississippi backwater and not from the Meramec basin itself. Every flood is unique and this one is way different than the ones that saw I-55 close (or almost close) in recent years. What is encouraging is that the best analog we have (1993) was still a foot or 2 lower than the recent floods at the Arnold gauge. In addition, I-55 is slightly upstream from that gauge and the further upstream you get the less of an issue backwater is. I definitely would not rule it out, but taking this into account my gut says we would need more rain than is currently forecasted to raise the rivers enough to close I-55. I will also add that river crossings further upstream from I-55 such as Tesson Ferry/MO 21, MO 30, or MO 141 would be even less likely to close as long as the Meramec flooding is primarily driven by backwater. All that said, anyone near the river or using river crossings should consider what their action plans would be in case the rivers do rise more and in case of drivers what alternatives you may have if faced with road closures. |
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Post by mchafin on Jun 3, 2019 18:38:59 GMT -6
Anybody know what is going on with the Missouri River at St. Charles? The level is rapidly and unexpectedly dropping and I'm not sure if there's been a breech in the area or if it is a gauge malfunction. I thought I heard on the way home on 1-1-2-0 that a breach had occurred? |
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Post by nascarfan999 on Jun 3, 2019 19:14:38 GMT -6
Anybody know what is going on with the Missouri River at St. Charles? The level is rapidly and unexpectedly dropping and I'm not sure if there's been a breech in the area or if it is a gauge malfunction. I thought I heard on the way home on 1-1-2-0 that a breach had occurred? I have checked every TV station, 1120, and Post websites plus my facebook feed and can't find anything. Looking at the gauge it looks like a breech as the fall has been consistent and reasonable since noon. However, it is now down over 2 feet which I'd think would have to be a pretty significant breech somewhere if the readings are accurate. |
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Post by red12 Hillsboro,mo on Jun 3, 2019 20:23:03 GMT -6
What's everyone thoughts on the meramec river in Arnold I'm think I55 will be shut down if we get more rain The "good" news is that pretty much all of the Meramec flooding thus far has come from Mississippi backwater and not from the Meramec basin itself. Every flood is unique and this one is way different than the ones that saw I-55 close (or almost close) in recent years. What is encouraging is that the best analog we have (1993) was still a foot or 2 lower than the recent floods at the Arnold gauge. In addition, I-55 is slightly upstream from that gauge and the further upstream you get the less of an issue backwater is. I definitely would not rule it out, but taking this into account my gut says we would need more rain than is currently forecasted to raise the rivers enough to close I-55. I will also add that river crossings further upstream from I-55 such as Tesson Ferry/MO 21, MO 30, or MO 141 would be even less likely to close as long as the Meramec flooding is primarily driven by backwater. All that said, anyone near the river or using river crossings should consider what their action plans would be in case the rivers do rise more and in case of drivers what alternatives you may have if faced with road closures. Thanks for you thoughts on it hope the rain goes else where |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 3, 2019 20:50:39 GMT -6
Anybody know what is going on with the Missouri River at St. Charles? The level is rapidly and unexpectedly dropping and I'm not sure if there's been a breech in the area or if it is a gauge malfunction. I thought I heard on the way home on 1-1-2-0 that a breach had occurred? There was a breach but from the description I heard it was downstream further near the confluence of the Mississippi. I wouldn't think that would cause such a big drop in St. Charles. Unless there was another one somewhere. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jun 3, 2019 20:55:52 GMT -6
Calhoun County levee breach. Closed a river bridge.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 4, 2019 4:06:55 GMT -6
Think we'll see much severe this evening or tonight Chris?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 4, 2019 6:57:27 GMT -6
Latest day 1 outlook includes the metro in the slight risk
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 4, 2019 7:13:47 GMT -6
I thought I heard on the way home on 1-1-2-0 that a breach had occurred? There was a breach but from the description I heard it was downstream further near the confluence of the Mississippi. I wouldn't think that would cause such a big drop in St. Charles. Unless there was another one somewhere. It is a broken gauge according to the NWS. |
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