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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 28, 2019 11:55:52 GMT -6
Starting to get concerned the complex in SE Iowa will never die and may survive all the way to STL. The CAPE gradient...ample available instability...well developed outflow/cold pool...limited capping...and steep mid and low level lapse rates indicate there may be an increasing wind threat as complex drops south...assuming it does hold its own. In fact, after a weakening trend for a while... it appears to be on the increase...with even a bit of an easterly componenet to the propagation. My rule of thumb(that doesn't always work but usually does) is if a complex is maintained or intensifies through 10-11am it will typically keep going into the afternoon. Looks like that might be the case today... |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 28, 2019 12:06:43 GMT -6
That complex looks to have developed an MCV...that definitely argues for it to be maintained downstream and with peak heating and ample destabilization I'd say a severe risk is possible with it for sure.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 28, 2019 12:08:08 GMT -6
Some stuff popping ahead of the line too and the eastern section of it is actually strengthening a bit. This may make it.
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jun 28, 2019 12:09:57 GMT -6
at the same time, its really crawling up at the MO/Iowa border for the past hour.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 28, 2019 12:10:18 GMT -6
Thickness and corfidi vectors favor a turn due S or even SW probably right along the river...
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 28, 2019 12:13:46 GMT -6
That complex looks to have developed an MCV...that definitely argues for it to be maintained downstream and with peak heating and ample destabilization I'd say a severe risk is possible with it for sure. Yep I noticed that pronounced spin in the last couple frames. This should be interesting. |
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Post by RyanD on Jun 28, 2019 12:57:47 GMT -6
It sure is moving slow. I hope it fizzles out. We are heading to the Fireman's picnic in Red Bud later and I don't want to deal with more rain.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 28, 2019 13:05:50 GMT -6
Now starting to look like it may peter out.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 28, 2019 13:12:32 GMT -6
Okay, who's the comedian that submitted the mPing report for blowing snow at 205 pm in South county?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 28, 2019 13:18:00 GMT -6
Looks like the original convection maybe dying in lieu of new convection further south-south-east where I suspect will drop south-south-west with time into metro Saint Louis. Once the new cold pool becomes established it should start to move again.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 28, 2019 13:19:05 GMT -6
Now starting to look like it may peter out. Not so sure...the line is starting to enter the radar "dead zone" across NE MO. The convection out ahead of the complex is looking pretty healthy across W/Central IL. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 28, 2019 13:27:58 GMT -6
The lack of any shear is the only thing making me slightly skeptical of the MCS making it this far south. But with an MVS present and plenty of instability, along with good diurnal timing I think it will make it here
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 28, 2019 13:31:27 GMT -6
The lack of any shear is the only thing making me slightly skeptical of the MCS making it this far south. But with an MVS present and plenty of instability, along with good diurnal timing I think it will make it here Once the new cold pool becomes established and it starts pushing South, it will create its own system relative sheer as a results of the forward motion of the leading edge of the rain cooled air. With the air mass this unstable, that's really all you need |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 28, 2019 13:59:21 GMT -6
I mowed the lawn and I gotta go to work... Of course it's gonna rain.  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 28, 2019 14:27:43 GMT -6
And there's the turn southeast becoming apparent on radar with gradually increasing forward speed as well as some re-intensification. Still hard to determine if it will hold together to reach the St. Louis Metro but with about 4 more hours of 'effective' heating to go it's got a chance. If anything the outflow boundary from it could spawn more popcorn variety storms through mid-evening. This is no derecho though some of the perimeters are becoming more favorable for evolution into at least a weak one if the cold pool can become established enough almost like a July 2006 but less dramatic and coming from the north, northwest as opposed to 2006 when it came southwest from Chicago.
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 28, 2019 15:15:32 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 28, 2019 15:33:16 GMT -6
It's 3 o'clock somewhere... |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jun 28, 2019 15:37:48 GMT -6
What does the MCV mean in weather? I see it and think Mean Corpuscular Volume. Yay red cells!
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 28, 2019 15:42:55 GMT -6
Shrinking... no storms for me.
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Post by Tilawn on Jun 28, 2019 16:02:16 GMT -6
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jun 28, 2019 16:03:54 GMT -6
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Post by RyanD on Jun 28, 2019 16:18:02 GMT -6
Looks like it is weakening a bit. Maybe heat island influence. Do you guys expect this will hold together through the viewing area? Family wants to go to the picnic in Red Bud and I don't want to get poured on.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 28, 2019 16:40:47 GMT -6
Looks like it is weakening a bit. Maybe heat island influence. Do you guys expect this will hold together through the viewing area? Family wants to go to the picnic in Red Bud and I don't want to get poured on. I'd be changing those plans... |
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Post by RyanD on Jun 28, 2019 16:42:57 GMT -6
Looks like it is weakening a bit. Maybe heat island influence. Do you guys expect this will hold together through the viewing area? Family wants to go to the picnic in Red Bud and I don't want to get poured on. I'd be changing those plans... Agreed but they insist on going so I'm out voted. Looks like it'll rain though doesn't look severe and they sure are taking their time to move south. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jun 28, 2019 16:48:02 GMT -6
That’s a pretty amazing gust front showing up on radar.... doesn’t get much better than that
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 28, 2019 16:50:59 GMT -6
Bit of wind gusts; maybe 35 mph. Then garden variety thunderstorm. For as ominous as the sky got it didn't even rain that hard. I didn't see any hail - not even pea sized.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jun 28, 2019 17:02:13 GMT -6
Really fell apart as it got to the river
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Post by ajd446 on Jun 28, 2019 18:54:01 GMT -6
I just had torrential rain maybe a 45 mph gusts and a few pea size pieces of.hail.in south st.peters
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Post by RyanD on Jun 28, 2019 19:38:34 GMT -6
Wow did we luck out. The gust front pushed through then the storms spilt then fell apart. It almost looked like the gust front became the focus for some redevelopment then the existing storms dried up. We didn't even encounter a sprinkle but the temp dropped to 80 and it was gorgeous. Glad we went even though I sure thought we would get poured on.
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Post by ajd446 on Jun 29, 2019 7:07:19 GMT -6
That complex in north Dakota may be here this evening. We need to watch
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