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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 9, 2019 23:37:16 GMT -6
UKMET has a pretty strong hurricane..pressure in the 950's rolling over Houston on Saturday, so that's interesting.
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Post by Tilawn on Jul 10, 2019 3:51:04 GMT -6
Yuck it is “thick” out here this morning!! I have a feeling this is going to be the worst day of the season so far as far as heat index goes.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 10, 2019 4:50:49 GMT -6
Air you can wear!
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 10, 2019 5:04:19 GMT -6
Looks like nws took the slight risk out today.
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Post by jeepers on Jul 10, 2019 6:57:05 GMT -6
Chris should steal that and use it on the air. It deserves the right overly enthusiastic tone and it's own graphic. |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jul 10, 2019 7:01:35 GMT -6
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 10, 2019 7:09:35 GMT -6
Chris should steal that and use it on the air. It deserves the right overly enthusiastic tone and it's own graphic. Well, sadly I dont think anybody can say it as good as Snowman. I mean even without hearing his voice on here, the effect it has. Wow! Amazing... How do u do it snowman? 😅 |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 10, 2019 7:13:29 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 10, 2019 7:50:35 GMT -6
Don't look now... but here comes a possible derecho!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 10, 2019 7:52:16 GMT -6
Looks like nws took the slight risk out today. mistake! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 10, 2019 8:09:32 GMT -6
3000+ MLCape out there at 9am
That’s enough to fuel a Derecho
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Post by jeepers on Jul 10, 2019 8:10:51 GMT -6
I'm grilling anyway.
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Post by Tilawn on Jul 10, 2019 8:22:12 GMT -6
Don't look now... but here comes a possible derecho! What timeframe? |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 10, 2019 8:29:57 GMT -6
Don't look now... but here comes a possible derecho! What timeframe? Could be as early as 1:30pm in metro STL. |
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Post by Tilawn on Jul 10, 2019 8:44:41 GMT -6
Could be as early as 1:30pm in metro STL. Thank you |
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117 
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Jul 10, 2019 9:03:17 GMT -6
Im in KC this summer volunteering at the Aviation Weather Center (which has been an awesome experience so far), and that MCS passed over me as I was driving into work. The shelf cloud was awesome!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 10, 2019 9:12:08 GMT -6
It will be interesting to see how that cluster holds together...it's strongly outflow dominant with weak inflow so you'd expect a wane in intensity but there's also spurious convection firing well ahead of the line which usually means it will hold together and intensify.
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
-------------------
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Post by blizzard123 on Jul 10, 2019 9:18:54 GMT -6
Also can we just talk about the 12z NAMNEST for this? It turns it into a borderline cat 5 hurricane still lurking in the gulf. IN 60 HOURS. If this thing can stay a little farther over the gulf and can organize its core by like tomorrow evening, this thing is going to explode.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 10, 2019 9:22:54 GMT -6
It will be interesting to see what the line does when the outflow reaches the antecedent convection. It doesn't appear that it will reach text book definition of derecho... But sporadic when damage seems reasonable as the line or a newly developed line from the old out flow spreads East.
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 10, 2019 9:34:35 GMT -6
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
-------------------
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Post by blizzard123 on Jul 10, 2019 9:43:05 GMT -6
Also can we just talk about the 12z NAMNEST for this? It turns it into a borderline cat 5 hurricane still lurking in the gulf. IN 60 HOURS. If this thing can stay a little farther over the gulf and can organize its core by like tomorrow evening, this thing is going to explode. I mean it also drops its central pressure to 866mb lol. So obviously its not in the realm of possibilities, but I do think it shows the potential this storm has for rapid intensification if gets its act together. People in Louisiana and Texas better watch this very carefully. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 10, 2019 9:46:52 GMT -6
That may be one of the strongest outflows I've ever seen on a base reflectivity radar image.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 10, 2019 9:56:11 GMT -6
Its hard to tell really, but it almost looks like the line out west is moving east southeast. Which in time might miss the northern STL AREA. Way to early to say for sure at this stage. But it just looks like its going southeast instead of directly EAST. Toward STL.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 10, 2019 9:57:52 GMT -6
But i guess we need to focus more on the outflow boundry. That is definitely moving our way. Which might fire more storms to the north of the line.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 10, 2019 10:05:31 GMT -6
3KM NAM shows a cat 5 hurricane striking the central Louisiana coast with Barry. A little overdone don't you think? Then again we have seen these rapid intensification storms before, Charlie in 2004 rings a bell, but the system will have to stay small for that to really happen.
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 10, 2019 10:28:00 GMT -6
Storms along the line are looking like they want to become more discreet... this may increase severe chances along & south of 70
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 10, 2019 10:35:22 GMT -6
It's not looking good for New Orleans. They already had a flash flood emergency this morning and PTC #2 is still looming. I can't comment on the accuracy of this, but the NWS page shows the Mississippi River forecasted to crest at levels not seen in 90+ years. I wonder if the Army Corp of Engineers will take proactive measures to mitigate the potential of catastrophic flooding?
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Post by jmg378s on Jul 10, 2019 10:53:28 GMT -6
I believe 3kNAM does not account for ocean effects so it's not a good intensity model.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 10, 2019 10:54:55 GMT -6
It's not looking good for New Orleans. They already had a flash flood emergency this morning and PTC #2 is still looming. I can't comment on the accuracy of this, but the NWS page shows the Mississippi River forecasted to crest at levels not seen in 90+ years. I wonder if the Army Corp of Engineers will take proactive measures to mitigate the potential of catastrophic flooding? There's probably not a whole lot they can do with the pre-existing flooding occurring...NOLA needs this storm to continue to track Westward through the N Gulf into TX or they are in serious trouble. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 10, 2019 10:55:54 GMT -6
The WRF/NAM is notorious for over cooking central pressure/intensity with tropical systems...honestly the EURO has been all over this storm for days now.
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