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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 12, 2019 10:56:42 GMT -6
Yesterday afternoon and evening it seemed like it was trending a bit more south and east. The models have obviously changed their thinking on that
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 12, 2019 11:04:53 GMT -6
Models have been struggling with the "handing off" of the storm between the weakening ridge across the SW US and the ridge off FL. The further W solutions make more sense to me with the ridge in the SW being dominant until the storm is well inland...the anticyclonic flow should keep it from drifting E until it weakens and the SE ridge amplifies a bit. I'd say odds of direct impacts from this system across our region are pretty high at this point...potentially significant. GFS shows that well. The weakness in the ridge is certainly over MO with the ridging strengthening both across the SW and the SE in the later frames. If this GFS is accurate with the pattern it should just work it's way north until it gets picked up by the westerlies .
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 12, 2019 11:36:27 GMT -6
12Z UKMET came in a bit to the east, but it's still outside the NHC cone to the west. It's also a bit more tame with precipitation at least in MO. There's still widespread 1" amounts in our area.  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 12, 2019 14:54:36 GMT -6
NHC has Barry remnants centered almost on Union at 1pm Tuesday
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 13, 2019 0:10:50 GMT -6
The 1 AM update puts what's left of the center of Barry on top of STL at 7 PM Tuesday
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Post by Sparkman - Wildwood, Mo on Jul 13, 2019 0:18:05 GMT -6
Figured I would check in here and give you all an update from Gulf Shores, AL - This is “just” a tropical storm and coming from someone who has loved severe weather my whole life, this is a completely different ball game. If you have never experienced a tropical storm warning before - its impressive. This is a first for me and it gives me a new appreciation for these storms.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 13, 2019 8:57:33 GMT -6
NHC calling BArry a hurricane as it moves inland in LA.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jul 13, 2019 9:18:57 GMT -6
Figured I would check in here and give you all an update from Gulf Shores, AL - This is “just” a tropical storm and coming from someone who has loved severe weather my whole life, this is a completely different ball game. If you have never experienced a tropical storm warning before - its impressive. This is a first for me and it gives me a new appreciation for these storms. Having lived in South Carolina back in the 80’s I have seen a few hurricanes..... best way to describe them is about a 10 hour severe thunderstorm on steroids lol |
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Post by REB on Jul 13, 2019 9:26:46 GMT -6
Just got done mowing. It is nasty out there. My yard also needs some rain.
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Post by Sparkman - Wildwood, Mo on Jul 13, 2019 10:40:20 GMT -6
Figured I would check in here and give you all an update from Gulf Shores, AL - This is “just” a tropical storm and coming from someone who has loved severe weather my whole life, this is a completely different ball game. If you have never experienced a tropical storm warning before - its impressive. This is a first for me and it gives me a new appreciation for these storms. Having lived in South Carolina back in the 80’s I have seen a few hurricanes..... best way to describe them is about a 10 hour severe thunderstorm on steroids lol That is exactly how to describe it haha. |
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Post by jmg378s on Jul 13, 2019 11:27:26 GMT -6
Models are looking hot next week after whatever is left of Barry clears out. ECM/GFS build a 22-25C 850mb thermal ridge into our area around midweek.
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Post by yypc on Jul 13, 2019 12:15:10 GMT -6
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Post by Jeffmw on Jul 13, 2019 13:07:20 GMT -6
So things are going to get a tad warm next week.
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Post by yypc on Jul 13, 2019 13:08:58 GMT -6
If we get a lot of rain Monday and Tuesday we might see the first 80+ degree dewpoints of the year Wednesday and Thursday
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
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Post by Jeke on Jul 13, 2019 13:51:09 GMT -6
If we get a lot of rain Monday and Tuesday we might see the first 80+ degree dewpoints of the year Wednesday and Thursday Almost like Christmas - Ya just can't wait! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 13, 2019 14:01:13 GMT -6
If we get a lot of rain Monday and Tuesday we might see the first 80+ degree dewpoints of the year Wednesday and Thursday Already been "enjoying" them in my neck of the woods...you can see the moisture hanging in the air mornings and evenings when mixing wanes. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 13, 2019 14:32:28 GMT -6
Going to be interesting to see how far west and north Barry's heaviest rain bands shift before they actually make it to the mid-Mississippi and lower Missouri River valleys.
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Post by cozpregon on Jul 13, 2019 16:40:15 GMT -6
As the heat builds next week... this sets up the potential derecho pattern. Something to watch as we move into next weekend.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 13, 2019 16:50:33 GMT -6
Going to be interesting to see how far west and north Barry's heaviest rain bands shift before they actually make it to the mid-Mississippi and lower Missouri River valleys. EURO shifted further W with this morning's run which brings the heavier rains closer to the heart of the region. I don't expect rainfall amounts to be excessive around here though...the slow movement of the system will allow it to "rain out" before it arrives and there's really no boundary in place to provide focused moisture convergence and lift. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jul 13, 2019 16:50:35 GMT -6
GFS has been pretty persistent with the idea of a transient jet pattern, so thankfully it doesn't look like the heat sticks around too terribly long. End of the month signals look fairly comfortable -- looks similar to what we saw over the past few days.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jul 13, 2019 18:11:58 GMT -6
Yeah I'm not looking forward to that heat next week working outside in it.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 14, 2019 12:05:10 GMT -6
crickets
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 14, 2019 12:51:38 GMT -6
Ya no kidding, i assume Barry's moisture won't be too much of a problem for us in STL? |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 14, 2019 15:13:29 GMT -6
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Post by Tilawn on Jul 15, 2019 5:03:53 GMT -6
Looks like several hours of dry time in my area this morning
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Post by nascarfan999 on Jul 15, 2019 5:53:25 GMT -6
Looks like somebody at FOX2 has the Blues on their mind a bit too much this morning...   |
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Post by scmhack on Jul 15, 2019 7:01:34 GMT -6
Looks like somebody at FOX2 has the Blues on their mind a bit too much this morning... I'll allow it |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jul 15, 2019 7:22:39 GMT -6
So is it raining hard down in Farmington?
I'm working outside today in STL
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 15, 2019 7:31:15 GMT -6
The rains of Barry are making pretty good progress north right now. Going to be wet soon.
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Post by bororug on Jul 15, 2019 7:34:05 GMT -6
So is it raining hard down in Farmington? I'm working outside today in STL Steady moderate rain in Festus currently |
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