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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 21, 2019 9:31:26 GMT -6
Looking at this mornings data, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 10% tornado risk expanded into the metro with the next D1 update
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on May 21, 2019 9:36:06 GMT -6
Here is the ribbon I am referring to... And if you adjust it at least a little bit south to account for slow recovery of the air mass and retreat of the outflow... this puts much of metro STl and points south in a tough position.  Tough as in not much storms will be able to develop or as in wicked storms? |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 21, 2019 9:38:02 GMT -6
still quite overcast downtown.
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 21, 2019 9:38:05 GMT -6
Either way, this line should pack a punch with some very strong winds. Just a matter of whether they can reach that next level.
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Post by cozpregon on May 21, 2019 9:46:41 GMT -6
 Front is still along the MO/AR border |
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Post by toddatfarmington on May 21, 2019 9:46:56 GMT -6
Per our friend Jim Sieveking, Latest HRRR and RAP depict sufficient instability and favorable shear values along and south of I-70 to pose a threat for tornadoes with any mesovortices or supercell structures with the squall line, beside the obvious straight line wind threat.
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Post by ajd446 on May 21, 2019 9:48:42 GMT -6
Looks like the line is moving ahead of schedual as well
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Post by toddatfarmington on May 21, 2019 9:49:50 GMT -6
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 21, 2019 10:04:35 GMT -6
Headed home to repair the siding that blew off lastnight before this next round of storms hit. It's still 58 downtown and overcast. A lot of recovery will be required to start soon for the threat to increase. Just my opinion.
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 21, 2019 10:08:10 GMT -6
Headed home to repair the siding that blew off lastnight before this next round of storms hit. It's still 58 downtown and overcast. A lot of recovery will be required to start soon for the threat to increase. Just my opinion. Agreed. Time is running out for this to become more than your ordinary line of spring time storms. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 21, 2019 10:28:32 GMT -6
Here is the ribbon I am referring to... And if you adjust it at least a little bit south to account for slow recovery of the air mass and retreat of the outflow... this puts much of metro STl and points south in a tough position. Tough as in not much storms will be able to develop or as in wicked storms? As in whicked... |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on May 21, 2019 10:30:02 GMT -6
The bulk of that moisture is looking like its going over some already well saturated ground north of I44 once again! The northern half of Missouri has borne the brunt of a lot of rain lately. My Bro in law up near Hannibal still hasn't put the plow in the ground yet. I hope he gets the beans planted soon though, so my buck can grow nice and fat before deer season.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 21, 2019 10:34:54 GMT -6
Front is still along the MO/AR border Think Mr. Higgins is right on the money with modeling being too quick with the lifting boundary...still a cool, east wind with overcast here in Alton. |
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Post by goosetalk - Troy, MO on May 21, 2019 10:35:54 GMT -6
Latest SPC update is focusing the main threat of tornadoes over the eastern ozarks, hail over the eastern ozarks up to STL while the wind threat extends up to the Eastern MO/Iowa line.
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Post by dschreib on May 21, 2019 10:35:58 GMT -6
The bulk of that moisture is looking like its going over some already well saturated ground north of I44 once again! The northern half of Missouri has borne the brunt of a lot of rain lately. My Bro in law up near Hannibal still hasn't put the plow in the ground yet. I hope he gets the beans planted soon though, so my buck can grow nice and fat before deer season. Helicopters were spraying fields down our way a couple weeks ago. A lot of them still haven't been touched. |
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on May 21, 2019 10:41:40 GMT -6
The bulk of that moisture is looking like its going over some already well saturated ground north of I44 once again! The northern half of Missouri has borne the brunt of a lot of rain lately. My Bro in law up near Hannibal still hasn't put the plow in the ground yet. I hope he gets the beans planted soon though, so my buck can grow nice and fat before deer season. Helicopters were spraying fields down our way a couple weeks ago. A lot of them still haven't been touched. Saw that around me also. I wondered if they were seeding or spraying. Sometimes the farmers around me will let certain fields go "no crop" for a year, while alternating corn & soybeans most other years. I've never noticed just a "cover crop", but I guess that's possible, too. |
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Post by unclesam6 on May 21, 2019 10:49:53 GMT -6
Seems like they're too fast with the warm front, and not fast enough with the main cool boundary.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 21, 2019 10:51:33 GMT -6
Seems like they're too fast with the warm front, and not fast enough with the main cool boundary. Warm sector could very well become pinched/occluded. |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on May 21, 2019 10:53:53 GMT -6
Seems like they're too fast with the warm front, and not fast enough with the main cool boundary. Warm sector could very well become pinched/occluded. Which means what?
I was hoping for the threat of severe weather to get me out of a graduation tonight, and I think this means the threat isnt going to be as bad as once thought.
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Post by bdgwx on May 21, 2019 10:57:23 GMT -6
HREF has the highest UH track probabilities peaking near the metro area and points to the north. Tornado probabilities are the highest to the south and west and line up pretty well with the SPC outlook.
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Post by jason0101 on May 21, 2019 11:06:04 GMT -6
Line is splitting.
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Post by cozpregon on May 21, 2019 11:06:05 GMT -6
Warm front looks just to be south of CGI- front may become more SW to NE oriented from SC MO up into the metro by squall line time.
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on May 21, 2019 11:11:16 GMT -6
A very large area of 6"+ radar estimated rain already on the MO/KS border is going to wreak havoc on Pomme, Stockton, Truman and LOZ. They completely closed Truman dam this morning and opened the flood gates at LOZ to try to keep levels in check...at the expense of everything upstream.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 21, 2019 11:14:09 GMT -6
Siding fixed.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on May 21, 2019 11:22:51 GMT -6
A very large area of 6"+ radar estimated rain already on the MO/KS border is going to wreak havoc on Pomme, Stockton, Truman and LOZ. They completely closed Truman dam this morning and opened the flood gates at LOZ to try to keep levels in check...at the expense of everything upstream. I was thinking about heading to Table Rock Lake mid next week to do some fishing, but after all the rain down that way, I am really rethinking that. Especially since I will be camping in a tent. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 21, 2019 11:31:55 GMT -6
Once clouds thin (adsuming they do) strong wind fields just off the surface combine with surface warming will help mechanical mixing kick in... allowing for pretty rapid warming from south to north...what we call a warm front jump. But unlikely that it gets as far as modeled...in stead...think near or just south of MO River looks good. Southeast/backed winds INVOF the front will are what will enlarge hodographs leading to enhanced tornado potential near triple point. Very concerned about areas near/southeast of I.44 up into at least southern metro.
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 21, 2019 11:38:46 GMT -6
Just got my 1st fuzzy look at the the Sun
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 21, 2019 11:39:09 GMT -6
Once clouds thin (adsuming they do) strong wind fields just off the surface combine with surface warming will help mechanical mixing kick in... allowing for pretty rapid warming from south to north...what we call a warm front jump. But unlikely that it gets as far as modeled...in stead...think near or just south of MO River looks good. Southeast/backed winds INVOF the front will are what will enlarge hodographs leading to enhanced tornado potential near triple point. Very concerned about areas near/southeast of I.44 up into at least southern metro. And just east of the river? |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on May 21, 2019 11:59:38 GMT -6
Looks like they updated the Forecaster's discussion for this afternoon too.
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 21, 2019 12:02:04 GMT -6
Wow, Mississippi River forecast just jumped by over 3 feet to a projection of 41.7' on Memorial Day. This pattern doesn't look to relax either.
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