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Post by Snowman99 on May 20, 2019 20:18:03 GMT -6
Let's not forget Subtropical Storm Andrea that formed in the sw Atlantic, well northeast of the Bahamas.
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Post by jmg378s on May 20, 2019 20:33:44 GMT -6
Yeah and the last time a subtropical or tropical storm did NOT form before hurricane season was 2014 I think.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 20, 2019 20:47:24 GMT -6
Seems like storms in Oklahoma kept blowing up along the frontal zone and pushing the effective cold front further and further south. We’ve seen that happen quite a few times around here
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Post by jmg378s on May 20, 2019 21:04:58 GMT -6
This is the Norman sounding earlier this evening...  I'm sure I've said before, but forecasting severe convection can be just as difficult (if not more so) than winter storms. |
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Post by jmg378s on May 20, 2019 21:15:17 GMT -6
And actually now that I look at the earlier 21z OUN sounding it looks like there was some sort of subsidence going on aloft between 21z and 0z.  |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on May 20, 2019 22:50:33 GMT -6
Line is still going Hoping it weakens a tad
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 20, 2019 22:52:39 GMT -6
That is a massive amount of water showing on radar!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 20, 2019 23:11:04 GMT -6
Line is still going Hoping it weakens a tad Ya I thought it would start to fall apart by now. Still looking healthy |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 20, 2019 23:46:32 GMT -6
And the wind isn't fooling around, either
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Post by Snowman99 on May 20, 2019 23:50:05 GMT -6
Enhanced risk maintained for the area on day 1 outlook
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on May 21, 2019 0:18:19 GMT -6
Well looks like it’s weakened but that’s a lot of water!
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Post by Snowman99 on May 21, 2019 0:36:09 GMT -6
Nice little mini typhoon with that line. 40-45 mph gust probably..and torrential rain.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 21, 2019 1:54:34 GMT -6
Couple of Mping reports of wind damage pretty close to me in St. Charles. Wonder whether it was couple of tree limbs or something more significant.
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Post by Tilawn on May 21, 2019 3:54:12 GMT -6
Just under an inch from the overnight rains as of 4:45AM
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Post by John G -west belleville on May 21, 2019 4:19:58 GMT -6
Chilly out there this morning.q
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 21, 2019 4:40:46 GMT -6
Today is definitely a muddled setup...the composite outflow/effective boundary has been pushed all the way into N AR with a rain cooled airmass in place and widespread cloudiness/showers lingering. How far north that boundary retreats is questionable...if it makes a strong push we could be looking at a potent setup later this afternoon and early evening but I'm not convinced it will do so. We'll have to watch trends closely today for sure...
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 21, 2019 4:58:25 GMT -6
Ya seems too chilly and rain cooled right now. We shall see....i also have my doubts.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 21, 2019 5:13:00 GMT -6
Probably also depends on whether the clouds hang around and keep things cool or whether they break up and we get lots of sun to destabilize things. Also whether that happens quickly or slowly
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Post by Snowman99 on May 21, 2019 5:29:54 GMT -6
I think the warmer air gets to I70 at least. The rain has diminished quite a bit, should see some sun. Lots of dynamics too.
Or it'll be cloudy and 55.
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 21, 2019 5:41:44 GMT -6
Looking at overcast from below... sure looks like we will be able to burn through by mid afternoon. I am taking model solution and shifting south by 30 to 50 miles at most.
Also... confirmed tornado at Tulsa Intl Airport.
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Post by Snowman99 on May 21, 2019 5:48:53 GMT -6
We get warm enough could be. Rock and roll few hours this evening. Interesting sign that confirmed tornadoes are already happening this early.
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 21, 2019 6:36:13 GMT -6
Sure is a lot of tornado warnings for 7 AM. Today's enhanced risk may outdo yesterday's high risk.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 21, 2019 7:31:42 GMT -6
After looking at models this morning I'm seeing some concerning trends...the 3km WRF lifts the warm front through the metro with pooling 70*F dewpoints and MLCAPE of 2500j/kg+. I think that's overblown but the EC also shows the warm front lifting up to at least I-70 with a ribbon of mid-60s dewpoints and 1000-1500j/kg SBCAPE. Both develop a triple point low that lifts across NE MO which keeps low-level winds backed...especially along the warm front...and shear values are very high with 0-1km shear running 30-40kts which will support an enhanced tornado and wind threat. Timing looks to be between 7-9pm for the Metro.
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 21, 2019 7:51:42 GMT -6
After looking at models this morning I'm seeing some concerning trends...the 3km WRF lifts the warm front through the metro with pooling 70*F dewpoints and MLCAPE of 2500j/kg+. I think that's overblown but the EC also shows the warm front lifting up to at least I-70 with a ribbon of mid-60s dewpoints and 1000-1500j/kg SBCAPE. Both develop a triple point low that lifts across NE MO which keeps low-level winds backed...especially along the warm front...and shear values are very high with 0-1km shear running 30-40kts which will support an enhanced tornado and wind threat. Timing looks to be between 7-9pm for the Metro. I am going with the idea that the triple point will be displaced a bit to the south owing to the fact that the outflow will be at least a little slower to retreat (of course this could be wrong...but that is normally what happens.) The southeast/backed surface flow and resulting ribbon of enhanced EHI/SRH/sigtor/super cell index, etc. That ribbon lifts northeast in tandem with the retreating outflow boundary leading to a potentially volatile set-up for several hours along I-70 into Metro STL...just as the squall line arrives. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 21, 2019 7:54:17 GMT -6
Here is the ribbon I am referring to... And if you adjust it at least a little bit south to account for slow recovery of the air mass and retreat of the outflow... this puts much of metro STl and points south in a tough position.  |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 21, 2019 7:56:28 GMT -6
I hate work... I cannot see it Chris! lol. Stupid firewalls... Can I assume that I70 in MO equates to I64 in IL? Do you expect it to hold together through atleast a county or two into IL?
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 21, 2019 8:02:06 GMT -6
Lots of clouds and some light showers over the Ozarks, so it's gonna be tough. There is somewhat of a clearing in the SW corner of MO, though I'm not sure that ever makes it here and if it does, it may not have enough time to destabilize us.
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Post by rb1108 on May 21, 2019 8:05:12 GMT -6
Lots of clouds and some light showers over the Ozarks, so it's gonna be tough. There is somewhat of a clearing in the SW corner of MO, though I'm not sure that ever makes it here and if it does, it may not have enough time to destabilize us. We can only hope. Although, I feel like the storms yesterday evening (9pm or so) were not forecasted much...all I kept hearing on TV was storms around 3am. Granted it wasn't Fox 2, so maybe thats why  |
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Post by goosetalk - Troy, MO on May 21, 2019 8:15:35 GMT -6
Lots of clouds and some light showers over the Ozarks, so it's gonna be tough. There is somewhat of a clearing in the SW corner of MO, though I'm not sure that ever makes it here and if it does, it may not have enough time to destabilize us. Clouds have a thinner look over central and SW MO so maybe they will burn off. Most of the time we know we can bet on destabilization not to occur for this area but it this system dynamic enough to over come it? SW MO and W Arkansas don't seem to have that shower activity building as the eastern Ozarks and North MO do. |
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Post by bdgwx on May 21, 2019 9:25:08 GMT -6
It definitely looks like this QLCS will peak in intensity somewhere in the vicinity of the metro area. Maybe anywhere from Franklin and Jefferson counties to the south up to Hannibal to the north.
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