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Post by Tilawn on Aug 26, 2019 9:22:19 GMT -6
The tornado warnings this morning were really questionable in my opinion. None of the couplets were remotely impressive.... And the TDS signatures I believe were questionable. Using the ingredients approach for qLCS tornadoes...it just dud not seem to check all of the boxes. That said, I understand why they went with tornado warnings... But if it were me, I think I would have gone with severe thunderstorm warnings and a tor possible tag. I assume they went with tornado due to the event happening in the overnight hours and most alerts out over the cell phones nowadays. I know that’s what woke me up this morning because I didn’t think the weather radio was needed last night. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 26, 2019 9:47:01 GMT -6
With the heavy amt of rain, it wont take as much wind to knock down trees. I agree with brtn that its a different set up tonight. But not really knowing how the cold front is going to interact with the remnant boundaries, i am concerned.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 26, 2019 9:50:10 GMT -6
With the heavy amt of rain, it wont take as much wind to knock down trees. I agree with brtn that its a different set up tonight. But not really knowing how the cold front is going to interact with the remnant boundaries, i am concerned. I expect a steadily moving MCS with a fair amount of stratiform rain behind the line...1 to 2 of additional rain in some spots. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Aug 26, 2019 9:51:04 GMT -6
Must have been out of it last night. I slept through all of that fun?
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 26, 2019 9:58:22 GMT -6
Latest hi-res Nam and HRRR doesnt have squat for STL tonight. More of a central MO threat like BRTN meationed. We shall see
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 26, 2019 10:00:38 GMT -6
With the heavy amt of rain, it wont take as much wind to knock down trees. I agree with brtn that its a different set up tonight. But not really knowing how the cold front is going to interact with the remnant boundaries, i am concerned. I expect a steadily moving MCS with a fair amount of stratiform rain behind the line...1 to 2 of additional rain in some spots. Thats good to know, chris! |
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Post by ajd446 on Aug 26, 2019 10:00:56 GMT -6
I believe we will all be good with squat. Even in st.peters I had 2.71. We do not need anymore rain
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Post by dschreib on Aug 26, 2019 10:12:49 GMT -6
When life gives you squall limes, crack open the squall tequila and squall salt.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 26, 2019 10:30:07 GMT -6
I actually think the SPC outlook is pretty well placed. Saint Louis has always been on the Eastern fringe of the severe potential for this evening. That is even more true after this morning's activity.
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Post by ajd446 on Aug 26, 2019 10:32:43 GMT -6
Chris is it possible that the the in Kansas city takes down 70 on the warm front and is.our main threat being damaging winds
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Aug 26, 2019 11:17:52 GMT -6
2.15 according to the Davis on the roof in North St. Pete. That is from Sunday and last night.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 26, 2019 11:54:35 GMT -6
That cluster is actually getting stronger as it crashes into the Ozarks and it is really booking it. Looks like the nasty bit will stay well SW as expected but keep an eye on what could develop out in front of it along the outflow.
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Post by Jeffmw on Aug 26, 2019 11:58:26 GMT -6
I actually think the SPC outlook is pretty well placed. Saint Louis has always been on the Eastern fringe of the severe potential for this evening. That is even more true after this morning's activity. Chris so the Severe threat overnight tonight is not going to be that big? By the way congrats on the promotion. |
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Post by yypc on Aug 26, 2019 12:07:45 GMT -6
You can definitely feel the humidity out there today
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Post by ajd446 on Aug 26, 2019 12:12:36 GMT -6
Almost have to wonder if thinks will.explode in the front of.the rain shield.moving in. It is extremely unstable in st.louis
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Post by amstilost on Aug 26, 2019 12:30:49 GMT -6
DP 73* in FAM and 70* in STL. I know someone mentioned...if 70* DP get in here.... paraphrasing there.
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Post by amstilost on Aug 26, 2019 12:32:34 GMT -6
Storms may be strong around here tomorrow late pm/evening- especially if we can get those mid 70 Tds Found it.  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 26, 2019 13:39:08 GMT -6
That's a nasty bugger out by Rolla...gotta be some good winds along those bowed segments.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 26, 2019 13:48:47 GMT -6
Looks to be a line of storms setting up generally along the same area as the storms from this morning. That could be really bad news if they continue to intensify and start training again.
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Post by ajd446 on Aug 26, 2019 13:54:50 GMT -6
Short range models slam the metro after the complex.currently slides just south of metro
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Aug 26, 2019 14:15:58 GMT -6
Short range models slam the metro after the complex.currently slides just south of metro Which is? |
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Post by ajd446 on Aug 26, 2019 14:20:55 GMT -6
Rap and hrrr
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 26, 2019 14:56:00 GMT -6
meh, snoozer
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Post by amstilost on Aug 26, 2019 14:58:19 GMT -6
I did notice the last couple frames the radar has it weakening as it's about to hit me in DeSoto. I'm glad to see that. The Thunder even sounds Wicked. Real sharp crisp short booms from the west. nothing really rolling except a few rumbles from the northern pop ups.
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Post by amstilost on Aug 26, 2019 15:01:57 GMT -6
I guess the thunderstorm warning was dropped I seen the counties in light blue but I didn't see the severe weather statement. on the radar it still has me highlighted as being under a warning.
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Post by amstilost on Aug 26, 2019 15:12:32 GMT -6
Now that was a rapid weakening of a line of storms... at least what came into my area.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 26, 2019 15:27:25 GMT -6
Starting to question the idea of widespread convection dveloping across MO this evening...the MCS was slower to move through than forecast and has stabilized the airmass behind it considerably. And looking at water vapor there isn't any significant shortwaves upstream to interact with the boundary. So I guess we'll see...
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Post by ajd446 on Aug 26, 2019 15:46:15 GMT -6
St.louis metro get severe later. We missed the mcs with not as much stabilizing effects
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Post by Tilawn on Aug 26, 2019 15:57:07 GMT -6
I’d be happy if we missed any more rain this week. Already two days behind schedule on the mowing list and it’s a holiday weekend coming up.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 26, 2019 16:14:50 GMT -6
St.louis metro get severe later. We missed the mcs with not as much stabilizing effects MUCAPE is <1000j/kg across the northern 2/3rds of MO...there's just not much instability left to work with. |
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