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Post by jmg378s on Aug 29, 2019 19:01:34 GMT -6
There are 2 recon missions ongoing in Dorian right now. They both flew through the eye about an hour ago within just a few minutes of each other. So how did their observations compare?
NOAA2 peak unflagged SFMR: 81kts
AF300 peak unflagged SFMR: 79kts
NOAA2 eye dropsonde at surface: 979mb / 16kts (~978mb MSLP)
AF300 eye dropsonde at surface: 980mb / 21kts (~978mb MSLP)
I'd say that's pretty good agreement.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 29, 2019 19:48:40 GMT -6
There are 2 recon missions ongoing in Dorian right now. They both flew through the eye about an hour ago within just a few minutes of each other. So how did their observations compare? NOAA2 peak unflagged SFMR: 81kts AF300 peak unflagged SFMR: 79kts NOAA2 eye dropsonde at surface: 979mb / 16kts (~978mb MSLP) AF300 eye dropsonde at surface: 980mb / 21kts (~978mb MSLP) I'd say that's pretty good agreement. Be interesting to see if they sample the environment around the lead upper low too...that's a key player in the eventual track of Dorian. |
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Post by jmg378s on Aug 29, 2019 19:56:46 GMT -6
There are 2 recon missions ongoing in Dorian right now. They both flew through the eye about an hour ago within just a few minutes of each other. So how did their observations compare? NOAA2 peak unflagged SFMR: 81kts AF300 peak unflagged SFMR: 79kts NOAA2 eye dropsonde at surface: 979mb / 16kts (~978mb MSLP) AF300 eye dropsonde at surface: 980mb / 21kts (~978mb MSLP) I'd say that's pretty good agreement. Be interesting to see if they sample the environment around the lead upper low too...that's a key player in the eventual track of Dorian. It looks like a 3rd plane just completed a synoptic sampling mission which appeared to get a portion of that low. I think Nassau and Bermuda (along with SE US sites) are doing additional RAOB launches as well. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 29, 2019 20:22:12 GMT -6
Look like we will have to deal with the remnant MCV from tonight’s convention around here tomorrow
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Post by toddatfarmington on Aug 29, 2019 21:13:55 GMT -6
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 29, 2019 21:37:22 GMT -6
10pm update on Dorian. Rapid intensification. Pressure down to 977 mb maximum sustained winds 105mph.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 30, 2019 0:03:24 GMT -6
What are the chances the skies will be clear enough for this this weekend?  When would be the best viewing? Can't find the answer is this. But I'm keeping an eye open for more information |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 30, 2019 1:41:10 GMT -6
Some majorly serious storms over SE KS and NE OK this early morning!!!
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Post by Tilawn on Aug 30, 2019 5:06:53 GMT -6
Is all that rain to our west going to come over us? Or will it fade away in a few hours?
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Post by jmg378s on Aug 30, 2019 6:18:35 GMT -6
I suspect we see a fading trend with the current batch of rain, but the remnant MCV should kick off new showers and storms later. Some of those storms could produce some heavy rain and if enough instability develops some of those storms could be strong.
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Post by jmg378s on Aug 30, 2019 6:37:32 GMT -6
Dorian is looking better this morning on satellite. You can see signs that shear is starting to relax with the CDO able to expand to the south and and hot tower anvils no longer racing to the north. Recon just found 94kt surface winds and the new NHC advisory adjusted to match. Looks primed for pressures to begin falling again.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Aug 30, 2019 7:06:27 GMT -6
6z HWRF shows a high end category 4 hammering southern Florida before turning north.
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Post by jeepers on Aug 30, 2019 7:23:45 GMT -6
When would be the best viewing? Can't find the answer is this. But I'm keeping an eye open for more information Bucket list item. Dorian: bad on many levels. Just saying prayers at this point. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 30, 2019 7:34:17 GMT -6
It is going to be a tough forecast day I'm afraid. The MCV/shortwave appear to be slowing to a crawl along with the associated shield of rain and storms. That means the instability ribbon along the soon to be nearly stationary front will have more time to get juicy...and a bit further west than originally expected. SPC has caught on to this with the expansion of the Marginal Risk to the west and southwest. Some strange storm trends and motion are possible today.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 30, 2019 8:03:20 GMT -6
Looks like a true eye is now forming on Dorian. Once that gets established it is going to explode. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see it go to Cat. 5 at some point. Perhaps before landfall then backing down to a 4 at landfall.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 30, 2019 8:36:44 GMT -6
Looks like a true eye is now forming on Dorian. Once that gets established it is going to explode. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see it go to Cat. 5 at some point. Perhaps before landfall then backing down to a 4 at landfall. HWRF is typically overblown with pressure/intensity forecasts but it's been suggesting a sub 940mb landfall which is getting close to CAT5 territory. Right now Jupiter seems like the rough centerline for the cone of uncertainty. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Aug 30, 2019 8:50:06 GMT -6
Looks like a true eye is now forming on Dorian. Once that gets established it is going to explode. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see it go to Cat. 5 at some point. Perhaps before landfall then backing down to a 4 at landfall. Ryan Maue just tweeted mentioning CAT 5 being attainable. I think the slow movement will hurt the storm some, so I’ll stay at CAT 4. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 30, 2019 9:06:46 GMT -6
Looks like a true eye is now forming on Dorian. Once that gets established it is going to explode. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see it go to Cat. 5 at some point. Perhaps before landfall then backing down to a 4 at landfall. Ryan Maue just tweeted mentioning CAT 5 being attainable. I think the slow movement will hurt the storm some, so I’ll stay at CAT 4. Yeah... slower movement as it reaches the coast is likely to result in upwelling of cooler water. But the prolonged period of onshore flow perpendicular to the coast could lead to some incredible storm surge flooding near and north of the center. |
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Post by bdgwx on Aug 30, 2019 9:41:14 GMT -6
The 3 big hurricane models (HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS) all have Dorian at cat 4 strength near the Bahamas.
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 30, 2019 9:52:05 GMT -6
But how cool is the under water off the coast of FL? Can't be too chilly.
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Post by cozpregon on Aug 30, 2019 9:58:48 GMT -6
Ryan Maue just tweeted mentioning CAT 5 being attainable. I think the slow movement will hurt the storm some, so I’ll stay at CAT 4. Yeah... slower movement as it reaches the coast is likely to result in upwelling of cooler water. But the prolonged period of onshore flow perpendicular to the coast could lead to some incredible storm surge flooding near and north of the center. Not comparing this to Katrina... she had hurricane force winds out 120 miles east of the center- but she came up from due south and that extended time of perpendicular flow was a major factor in the extreme storm surge.
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Post by Jeffmw on Aug 30, 2019 10:13:35 GMT -6
Guess it’s a good thing our weather is quiet up here so we keep an eye Dorian.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 30, 2019 10:19:46 GMT -6
But how cool is the under water off the coast of FL? Can't be too chilly. Bathwater...85+ degrees. |
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Post by dschreib on Aug 30, 2019 10:27:17 GMT -6
Looks like most of the models have gone away from crossing FL, and are instead taking him almost parallel to the coast not long after landfall. Without doing much digging into the models, that would be pretty awful for those areas unless somehow that apparent front gets through about 12 hours quicker.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 30, 2019 10:30:59 GMT -6
Looks like most of the models have gone away from crossing FL, and are instead taking him almost parallel to the coast not long after landfall. Without doing much digging into the models, that would be pretty awful for those areas unless somehow that apparent front gets through about 12 hours quicker. Yea, you would have serious coastal damage and flooding from south FL all the way up to Charleston, SC with that situation. As for our weather, we should see some storms develop here over the next couple hours to our west. Very strong spin still in the atmosphere from the remnants of last night. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 30, 2019 10:40:49 GMT -6
Looks like most of the models have gone away from crossing FL, and are instead taking him almost parallel to the coast not long after landfall. Without doing much digging into the models, that would be pretty awful for those areas unless somehow that apparent front gets through about 12 hours quicker. Yea, you would have serious coastal damage and flooding from south FL all the way up to Charleston, SC with that situation. As for our weather, we should see some storms develop here over the next couple hours to our west. Very strong spin still in the atmosphere from the remnants of last night. Nice sector of clearing on satellite down your way...might build enough instability for some good boomers this afternoon. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Aug 30, 2019 12:31:32 GMT -6
12z euro is going to throw everything into chaos.
Wagons north
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 30, 2019 12:40:35 GMT -6
12 z Euro has no landfall anywhere. Rides Dorian just offshore along FL up to the Carolinas, then OTS. What a headache.
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Post by bdgwx on Aug 30, 2019 12:57:20 GMT -6
Towards the end it phases with a shortwave and gets pulled back and makes landfall near Halifax, Nova Scotia as a 950mb low. Very interesting output from the Euro...
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 30, 2019 13:02:04 GMT -6
Towards the end it phases with a shortwave and gets pulled back and makes landfall near Halifax, Nova Scotia as a 950mb low. Very interesting output from the Euro... |
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