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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 31, 2019 13:18:42 GMT -6
The thing that plagues hurricane forecasting is that they typically develop in the low latitudes where the flow is often weak, chaotic and not well sampled...small changes in the environment around them can make for relatively large shifts that models don't pick up on until it's happening. So I wouldn't expect forecast skill to increase significantly until better sampling is available. Something that may be feasible would be automated bouys or vessels that are capable of launching radiosondes and relaying that information via satellite.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 31, 2019 13:36:17 GMT -6
The thing that plagues hurricane forecasting is that they typically develop in the low latitudes where the flow is often weak, chaotic and not well sampled...small changes in the environment around them can make for relatively large shifts that models don't pick up on until it's happening. So I wouldn't expect forecast skill to increase significantly until better sampling is available. Something that may be feasible would be automated bouys or vessels that are capable of launching radiosondes and relaying that information via satellite. I will concede that accurate forecasts are difficult to develop when models have very limited data from which to calculate the forecasts. But, at the end of spectrum, maybe the cone of uncertainty needs to be made a lot more vague and broad. Both in terms of path and strength. I know that would not be good for alerting the public. But right now it would appear that the public that was alerted isn't going to be in the path after all. All that does is increase ambivalence when warnings are issued. People are more likely to ignore them. I know - it's a razor thin line to walk. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 31, 2019 14:44:03 GMT -6
I understand why they have been getting more dropsondes in the near storm environment, but seems to me more needs to done in the western CONUS and east Pacific to identify potentially course changing shortwaves and jet streaks. The poor handling of many of the shortwaves that has driven MCS after MCS this summer leaves me more than a little skeptical of the big shift east. That by no means should be read to mean that I disgree with NHC forecast. I think they have been very conservative with the shifting of the cone off shore... and for good reason. If this next shortwave comes in weaker in the next 24 hours... that track may come way back west again. The anxiety level in Florida...and especially among EMs and the Mets there must be extreme.
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Post by jmg378s on Aug 31, 2019 15:29:37 GMT -6
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Post by ajd446 on Aug 31, 2019 18:28:12 GMT -6
Raining buckets and heaps in st.peters
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 31, 2019 18:39:46 GMT -6
Haven't had rain in 24 hours. Things were getting parched.
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Post by ajd446 on Aug 31, 2019 18:47:56 GMT -6
More like no rain in 12 hours lol
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Aug 31, 2019 19:44:15 GMT -6
18z HWRF was wayyyyy west...
This is far worse than our winter storm problems considering the extreme impact.
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 31, 2019 20:19:54 GMT -6
Seems an upgrade to cat 5 is coming. SFMR readings suggest it.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Aug 31, 2019 20:56:17 GMT -6
Seems an upgrade to cat 5 is coming. SFMR readings suggest it. Nope, can’t ever accuse that office of overhype lol. Wow |
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 31, 2019 21:01:15 GMT -6
Seems an upgrade to cat 5 is coming. SFMR readings suggest it. Nope, can’t ever accuse that office of overhype lol. Wow Their reasoning: There have been some higher surface wind estimates from the SFMR, but these data are questionable based on our experience of very high SFMR-measured wind speeds in recent strong hurricanes that didn't match standard flight-level wind reductions. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Aug 31, 2019 21:03:50 GMT -6
Starting to see a little bit of symmetric reduction in the western flank of the storm itself.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Aug 31, 2019 21:08:50 GMT -6
Nope, can’t ever accuse that office of overhype lol. Wow Their reasoning: There have been some higher surface wind estimates from the SFMR, but these data are questionable based on our experience of very high SFMR-measured wind speeds in recent strong hurricanes that didn't match standard flight-level wind reductions. I mean it really is like splitting hairs at this point. I’m sure they are far more worried about the track (especially after that 18z HWRF run). But also it’s really silly when we all know they will reclassify it as a 5 after the fact anyway. Call a spade a spade and what not |
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Post by Tilawn on Sept 1, 2019 5:50:57 GMT -6
Nasty mist/drizzle this morning
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Post by unclesam6 on Sept 1, 2019 6:14:26 GMT -6
Dorian is CAT5 - 160mph winds
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 1, 2019 6:57:58 GMT -6
Nasty mist/drizzle this morning Just looking out the window it looks like a November day... except the trees are still green |
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 1, 2019 6:58:13 GMT -6
The pressure is down to 927mb. Dorian is going to wreak some major havoc on the northern Bahama islands.
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Post by amstilost on Sept 1, 2019 7:04:19 GMT -6
Since Dorian is moving so slowly over Abaco and Grand Island will that not disrupt the storm enough to weaken it. Is the islands elevation tall enough for that? and or the upwelling of colder water in shallower areas, or is the water just warm enough all the way through the depth of the water at this location that it's not going to matter?
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 1, 2019 7:27:23 GMT -6
The northern Bahamas are going to get the beating of their lives the next 2 days. Likely those islands will be unrecognizable after Dorian.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 1, 2019 7:48:45 GMT -6
Since Dorian is moving so slowly over Abaco and Grand Island will that not disrupt the storm enough to weaken it. Is the islands elevation tall enough for that? and or the upwelling of colder water in shallower areas, or is the water just warm enough all the way through the depth of the water at this location that it's not going to matter? Upwelling is going to weaken the storm somewhat...but land interaction is minimal with the relatively small size and low elevation of the Bahamas. |
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Post by jeepers on Sept 1, 2019 7:52:56 GMT -6
922 mb
175 mph sustained winds
Moving 8mph
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 1, 2019 7:54:53 GMT -6
Since Dorian is moving so slowly over Abaco and Grand Island will that not disrupt the storm enough to weaken it. Is the islands elevation tall enough for that? and or the upwelling of colder water in shallower areas, or is the water just warm enough all the way through the depth of the water at this location that it's not going to matter? Maybe some, but I don't think the islands themselves will have too much affect. They don't have much area and have low terrain...I think I saw between Abaco and Grand Bahama the highest elevation was like 150ft or something, but most of the islands are much lower. I mean we've seen hurricanes cross southern Florida with only minor weakening. I think upwelling, even though this area is high oceanic heat content bath water, is going to make a bigger impact during the stall. Edit: Ah BRTN beat me to it while I was typing  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 1, 2019 7:56:32 GMT -6
Holy sh1t..winds are now 175mph!
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 1, 2019 7:57:11 GMT -6
Jeepers beat me to it
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 1, 2019 7:57:47 GMT -6
It's almost 25 years since I was there but from what I remember the Grand Bahama had no terrain to speak of that would disrupt Dorian much. The highest point on the island were the hotels
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Post by jeepers on Sept 1, 2019 7:59:57 GMT -6
But your comment was more appropriate.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 1, 2019 8:06:56 GMT -6
Dorian is a true monster...the real deal.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 1, 2019 8:17:48 GMT -6
I would need to crunch some numbers... but in a very general sense... Dorian is the equivalent of an EF3 tornado... the size of metro STL.
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 1, 2019 8:19:18 GMT -6
We saw what Irma did to Barbuda and other islands...so, yeah, this is going to be bad.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 1, 2019 8:24:57 GMT -6
I would need to crunch some numbers... but in a very general sense... Dorian is the equivalent of an EF3 tornado... the size of metro STL. That is insane. It is modeled to grow substantially in size too. Razor thin margin for Florida |
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