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Post by Jeffmw on Sept 1, 2019 12:12:55 GMT -6
Hurricane Dorian now 185 mph
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 1, 2019 12:15:19 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 1, 2019 12:30:24 GMT -6
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 1, 2019 12:38:41 GMT -6
Chris are you still concerned about a slightly further west track.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 1, 2019 12:41:13 GMT -6
Chris are you still concerned about a slightly further west track. Absolutely. The eurpoean is highly questionable because it appears to have initialized Dorian's pressure about 50mb too high. That is a problem...as did the GFS. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 1, 2019 12:47:27 GMT -6
On a local note, those clouds are hanging tough today.
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 1, 2019 12:49:01 GMT -6
On a non-local note, if the models are not correct with a "stall" of Dorian, and it continues to move west even at 1 or 2 mph for that 24 hours or so, that could be a huge difference for FL.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 1, 2019 12:52:39 GMT -6
On a non-local note, if the models are not correct with a "stall" of Dorian, and it continues to move west even at 1 or 2 mph for that 24 hours or so, that could be a huge difference for FL. Or one wobble in the track...trachodial loop...etc. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Sept 1, 2019 12:53:56 GMT -6
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Sept 1, 2019 13:01:04 GMT -6
Great, googly moogly!
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Sept 1, 2019 13:04:04 GMT -6
Think about the fact that just a few days ago this was only supposed to be a low end hurricane
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 1, 2019 13:09:05 GMT -6
Think about the fact that just a few days ago this was only supposed to be a low end hurricane yup...it was also supposed to track west of Puerto Rico... and it went east. The track of this beast is still up in the air. |
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Sept 1, 2019 13:13:00 GMT -6
Totally agree Chris, the margin of error of these model projections can be as much as 70 miles and with a more than likely secondary eyewall replacement nobody in the southeast should be counting on the models at this point. Just be safe and get out, it’s not worth it. Models should be considered “guidance”, not “Gospel”.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 1, 2019 13:23:06 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 1, 2019 13:31:29 GMT -6
Back to local, I REALLY wish these damn mosquitoes would die. I have been one big itch for 4 months.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Sept 1, 2019 14:13:37 GMT -6
In sports news... two walk offs in a row! Red Birds are on fire!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 1, 2019 14:27:14 GMT -6
In sports news... two walk offs in a row! Red Birds are on fire! The Blues and Cardinals are making living in Chicago so much more fun this year |
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 1, 2019 14:45:21 GMT -6
NWS has highs in the low 70's next Sunday. Yes, please.
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Post by Jeffmw on Sept 1, 2019 15:08:11 GMT -6
Is it just me or do some of the tv Reporters reporting live from the possible hurricane effected areas almost sound disappointed there may not be a direct hit.
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Post by cozpregon on Sept 1, 2019 15:27:44 GMT -6
Catching it as the sun goes down... can see the stadium effect  |
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Post by Tilawn on Sept 1, 2019 15:30:36 GMT -6
Back to local, I REALLY wish these damn mosquitoes would die. I have been one big itch for 4 months. But.......but.......but........they should have all died because we had a cold winter!!!! |
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Post by cozpregon on Sept 1, 2019 15:43:58 GMT -6
Been in the eye for 3 hours  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 1, 2019 15:44:49 GMT -6
Back to local, I REALLY wish these damn mosquitoes would die. I have been one big itch for 4 months. But.......but.......but........they should have all died because we had a cold winter!!!! ol |
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 1, 2019 15:45:46 GMT -6
What an unreal bashing those places are getting. Wow.
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 1, 2019 15:52:55 GMT -6
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 1, 2019 16:23:55 GMT -6
Streaming from the Bahamas. I believe their studios may be in Nassau znsbahamas.com/ |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 1, 2019 17:16:43 GMT -6
HWRF remains insistent in its 18z run that Florida takes a direct hit.
Doesn’t speak well for our models if it fails with this time lead, but it’s certainly better if it does.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 1, 2019 17:18:05 GMT -6
18z HWRF continues to bring Dorian to the central Florida coast near Cape Canaveral. You have to wonder when NHC will start to bend more west. I do not envy them at all. I have zero qualms with their handling of this thing to this point. I'm just saying what they must be thinking... where do we go from here?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 1, 2019 17:19:19 GMT -6
The fact that it is the only model anywhere close to the intensity gives me more confidence in its forecast than others at this time.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 1, 2019 17:21:13 GMT -6
The fact that it is the only model anywhere close to the intensity gives me more confidence in its forecast than others at this time. The fact that the gfs and euro agree makes me suspect they are wrong. |
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