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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 1, 2019 17:33:57 GMT -6
The fact that it is the only model anywhere close to the intensity gives me more confidence in its forecast than others at this time. The fact that the gfs and euro agree makes me suspect they are wrong. Well that is usually the case in winter. |
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Post by jeepers on Sept 1, 2019 17:34:57 GMT -6
Hard not to look down this particular tunnel and not think: TRAIN.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 1, 2019 17:37:59 GMT -6
My nephew, his wife and three kids live southwest of Cape Canaveral... I can tell you their anxiety is off the charts right now.
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Sept 1, 2019 17:47:02 GMT -6
The fact that the “major” media weather network continues to put its eggs all in the EURO’s basket is a bit discouraging. I hope for the sake of the people in the central part of Florida, the EURO and GFS are right. There should just be more stress on “plan for the real possibility” it won’t turn. People just stare at the graphic of the cone and less informed people will just say “it will miss us”. Personally, I prefer showing the “spaghetti strands” especially with a hurricane as dangerous as this and with it being Labor Day weekend in a very high tourist area.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 1, 2019 17:50:57 GMT -6
The fact that the “major” media weather network continues to put its eggs all in the EURO’s basket is a bit discouraging. I hope for the sake of the people in the central part of Florida, the EURO and GFS are right. There should just be more stress on “plan for the real possibility” it won’t turn. People just stare at the graphic of the cone and less informed people will just say “it will miss us”. The odds are it will miss. The euro/gfs combo along with ensembles is stronger than the HWRF. The HWRF is enough to make you think twice though |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 1, 2019 17:51:31 GMT -6
From what I can gather talking with family down there... it still very much has their attention. Hospital at Cape Canaveral has now ordered evacuation... not sure which one...but my nephew's wife works there.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Sept 1, 2019 17:51:49 GMT -6
The fact that the “major” media weather network continues to put its eggs all in the EURO’s basket is a bit discouraging. I hope for the sake of the people in the central part of Florida, the EURO and GFS are right. There should just be more stress on “plan for the real possibility” it won’t turn. People just stare at the graphic of the cone and less informed people will just say “it will miss us”. The odds are it will miss. The euro/gfs combo along with ensembles is stronger than the HWRF. The HWRF is enough to make you think twice though Not to mention that some of the ensemble members do make landfall as well, although not many. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 1, 2019 17:55:55 GMT -6
I actually think North Carolina is the one being understated.
Probably a CAT 3 landfall or near landfall
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 1, 2019 18:02:04 GMT -6
It lost about 3 MB going over "land". An eyewall replacement cycle is beginning, which should mean weakening over the next 12-24 hours. Possibly significant, like down to a 4. If it misses FL and makes it to NC i wouldn't expect it to be more than a 2.
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Sept 1, 2019 18:43:08 GMT -6
Mesmerizing
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Sept 1, 2019 21:17:16 GMT -6
I made it to Daytona to ride out the hurricane. Hopefully I won’t get it evacuated. Currently trying to find a local to rent out their house as a backup since I feel like we are gunna get kicked out. This place is dead down here. Definitely that hurricane feel!
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Sept 1, 2019 21:18:02 GMT -6
For those of you who follow such nonsense... persimmon seeds have spoons in them this year.
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Post by ndolan387 on Sept 1, 2019 21:29:22 GMT -6
For those of you who follow such nonsense... persimmon seeds have spoons in them this year. Means snowy winter right haha? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 1, 2019 21:59:12 GMT -6
GFS gets Dorian awfully close to Florida. Way way to close for comfort
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Post by amstilost on Sept 1, 2019 23:06:55 GMT -6
Am I missing something with the first hours of the NAM and GFS. NAM has Dorian at 975mb @ 10pm and GFS has Dorian @ 956mb at 1am....WTH
1am EDT update has Dorian at 914mb. Big difference IMHO. I am hoping I am missing something here.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 2, 2019 0:54:24 GMT -6
2 am et advisory has down to 175 mph. Not that 5 pmh is worth <insert your own cliche'about nothing here>. 175 mph is still pretty much going to level everything short of a concrete military type bunker
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 2, 2019 4:36:31 GMT -6
The 06z GFS brings the center almost all the way to the north Florida coast.
Meanwhile... the new 06z NHC HWRF is a few miles east of previous forecasts...at least through the first 6 hours.
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Post by unclesam6 on Sept 2, 2019 5:30:09 GMT -6
Has Dorian moved since midnight?... I can't even begin to wonder what some of that damage might look like. It seems as if some folks have been dealing with the brunt of this storm going on nearly 24 hours.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 2, 2019 5:35:11 GMT -6
Has Dorian moved since midnight?... I can't even begin to wonder what some of that damage might look like. It seems as if some folks have been dealing with the brunt of this storm going on nearly 24 hours. I was about to post the exact same thing. Current bearing is west at ONE mph. Those places have to just be shredded. Being over the big island there for so long has begun to affect it. Down to 165 but still a monster. Will be interesting to see what happens when it hits full open water again. May have a brief restrengthening before the turn and then weakening. I hate what it’s doing but from a meteorological perspective it’s just fascinating. |
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Post by Tilawn on Sept 2, 2019 5:40:10 GMT -6
WOW it is thick fog this morning!! Down to just a couple hundred feet visibility.
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Post by REB on Sept 2, 2019 6:14:08 GMT -6
Happy Birthday Woogie!!!!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 2, 2019 6:53:17 GMT -6
Woogie Woogie Woogie.... HAP HAP HAPPY BIRTHDAY!
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Post by dschreib on Sept 2, 2019 7:19:15 GMT -6
Happy birthday, Woogie!
Also...the Invest train is starting to line up. 92L looks pretty healthy.
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 2, 2019 7:26:47 GMT -6
Am I missing something with the first hours of the NAM and GFS. NAM has Dorian at 975mb @ 10pm and GFS has Dorian @ 956mb at 1am....WTH 1am EDT update has Dorian at 914mb. Big difference IMHO. I am hoping I am missing something here. I believe most models like the GFS and ECMWF initialize the pressure of intense tropical cyclones like Dorian correctly you just don't see it because of how the post processing steps are handling the output files of the models. Global models are still skillful in predicting the tracks of even the most intense cyclones. One thing I've been noticing from the global ensemble runs for Dorian is that the members that are weak/strong have tracks to the left/right of the mean. In other words, less intense tends to go into Florida and more intense tends to stay OTS. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 2, 2019 7:28:36 GMT -6
Dorian's radius has increased substantially with an ERC in progress...that should continue to allow winds to relax somewhat. But the fact that the storm has remained so intense while moving so slowly near/over land goes to show how prime the synoptic environment around it is. There is going to be a razor thin margin for the FL Coast...the HMON wobbles the storm back west for a time tomorrow morning before turning north again and staying just offshore...if the turn is delayed or the storm wobbles like that a direct hit from the eyewall is possible. These models are really struggling with accurate initialization which makes it hard to trust any of them...HMON is substantially too quick with the storms movement currently although it looks close with central pressure.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Sept 2, 2019 8:32:21 GMT -6
Wow 1mph!!! I could NOT imagine what those folks are going thru!!! Just horrific!
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 2, 2019 8:59:44 GMT -6
As I expected Dorian down to a 4 now with 155 winds.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 2, 2019 10:00:32 GMT -6
As I expected Dorian down to a 4 now with 155 winds. The increase in size is probably worse than the minimal decrease in winds near the eye considering the eye is unlikely to make landfall. North Carolina is going to have some issues |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 2, 2019 10:00:34 GMT -6
Dorian is choking itself out by sitting over the same water for so long. That in combination with the eye being over some land for so long is really starting to affect it. I think it will go down to Cat. 3 before re-emerging fully over the water and turning north. But man I can't imagine what some of those places in the Bahamas must look like.
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 2, 2019 10:57:49 GMT -6
Surge and erosion on the northern coast of the west end of Grand Bahama must be incredibly. On shore flow for hours.
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