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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 3, 2019 8:42:22 GMT -6
Dorian is Basically falling apart, and will stay off shore. Barely a cat 3, probably a 2. Eye is gone. Yea, I noted that process had begun yesterday, and it has pretty much killed itself. Now to the point that even when it gets moving any strengthening should be minimal. What a crazy storm...I wonder what some of the rainfall totals will be across the Bahamas. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Sept 3, 2019 9:13:57 GMT -6
Just wondering is the Hurricane delaying cooler we were supposed to get?
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Post by dschreib on Sept 3, 2019 10:58:57 GMT -6
Dorian is Basically falling apart, and will stay off shore. Barely a cat 3, probably a 2. Eye is gone. Yeah, the eye structure has been open for the last few missions starting last night. Once he gets moving again, the SSTs are still upwards of 29C, though. I think 25-30kts of shear and dealing with the landmass to the east should keep him from regaining much strength. |
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Post by dschreib on Sept 3, 2019 16:04:18 GMT -6
110mph sustained seems awfully generous, doesn't it?
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on Sept 3, 2019 16:16:04 GMT -6
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 3, 2019 17:57:50 GMT -6
I saw that video earlier today. That is some of the worst hurricane damage I have ever seen!
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Post by ajd446 on Sept 3, 2019 19:16:27 GMT -6
That is the worst hurricane damage I have ever seen
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Sept 3, 2019 21:05:54 GMT -6
Just awful!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 3, 2019 23:26:07 GMT -6
Reminds me of pictures of the aftermath of the tsunami in Japan...but with wind damage. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 4, 2019 13:31:08 GMT -6
Looks like the ridge across the S Plains makes a strong push into the region later next week which could bring some pretty warm temps for September with 850mb temps around 22*C.
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 4, 2019 15:00:27 GMT -6
Reminds me of pictures of the aftermath of the tsunami in Japan...but with wind damage. You can tell there is a large difference in construction quality even in the surge area where some structures were completely swept and other structures remained more or less intact. It's difficult to know from the video but it looks like there were some areas that may not have been affected by surge where catastrophic wind damage occurred instead. Of course there would be difference in construction here too but I get the impression there were enhanced zones of damage due to tornadoes possibly (e.g. embedded within the mesovortices swirling around the eyewall)? |
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Post by yypc on Sept 4, 2019 15:54:01 GMT -6
How can you say whether there were embedded tornados with a 185 mph hurricane and 220 mph gusts? That is EF4 to EF5 right there. Whether you call it a cane or a tornado seems largely irrelevant. A strong cat 5 hurricane is basically a massive tornado when you think about it.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 4, 2019 16:24:18 GMT -6
Dont look now but Dorian is strengthening again! The eye wall has almost completely reformed... and it appears to be contracting a bit. Latest obs showed winds are up as well. How much more will it regain? It looks much stronger and larger now than it did 24 hours ago.
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Post by dschreib on Sept 4, 2019 16:43:53 GMT -6
Dont look now but Dorian is strengthening again! The eye wall has almost completely reformed... and it appears to be contracting a bit. Latest obs showed winds are up as well. How much more will it regain? It looks much stronger and larger now than it did 24 hours ago. Sure has been a strange one. Water temps are plenty warm up the east coast. I just thought the close proximity to land would hinder much strengthening...which is probably why I'm an ops manager and not working for the NHC.
EDIT: And isn't he running right through ~40kts of shear?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 4, 2019 17:12:26 GMT -6
Dorian is looking more organized and convection looks to be ramping up around the eye. I heard reports that the pressure was starting to fall again as well
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Post by dschreib on Sept 4, 2019 19:28:17 GMT -6
Dorian is looking more organized and convection looks to be ramping up around the eye. I heard reports that the pressure was starting to fall again as well Eye is closed again. I was away from the computer most of the day. Did he just get upgraded to Cat 3 again or was that earlier today? |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 4, 2019 20:30:25 GMT -6
Charleston could be in pretty big trouble with flooding tomorrow with the rain, surge, and high tide combo. I love that city..wife and I have been there each of the last 4 years.
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Post by yypc on Sept 4, 2019 20:54:05 GMT -6
That first fall cool front is nowhere in sight
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 4, 2019 20:55:31 GMT -6
How can you say whether there were embedded tornados with a 185 mph hurricane and 220 mph gusts? That is EF4 to EF5 right there. Whether you call it a cane or a tornado seems largely irrelevant. A strong cat 5 hurricane is basically a massive tornado when you think about it. I can't say for sure, it's just speculation in this case. But we now know this does happen and was found to be the case in Hurricane Harvey, which I believe was the first direct observation of eye-wall mesovortex tornadoes correlated with enhanced wind damage. Does it matter... meh...probably not to most people, but it's still interesting from a scientific point of view. Tornadic winds also have a vertical component which can greatly increase damage. |
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 4, 2019 21:00:44 GMT -6
Recon is finding falling pressures and stronger winds. Dorian back up to major status as of 11ET update.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Sept 4, 2019 21:17:41 GMT -6
Starting to get a bad feeling for our place in Myrtle Beach..... I have been going there every summer for over 30 years.... it might take a direct hit
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 4, 2019 21:29:57 GMT -6
18Z Euro came in a hair west and appears to make landfall on the mainland in NC as opposed to just the outer banks. It also shows further intensification as it skirts past New England and approaches Nova Scotia as a 940mb low. Anyone know what the most intense hurricane to make landfall in Canada was? Keep an eye on Greenland as well. I wouldn't be surprised if it makes landfall on the southern tip at least as an extratropical storm.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Sept 5, 2019 5:14:51 GMT -6
Man this Hurricane is relentless!
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Post by dschreib on Sept 5, 2019 9:31:09 GMT -6
Wow. Big wobble toward the coast, but also looks like there's some dry air getting ingested--not that it matters much at this point.
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Post by amstilost on Sept 5, 2019 9:55:30 GMT -6
Wow. Big wobble toward the coast, but also looks like there's some dry air getting ingested--not that it matters much at this point. It's like it wobbled west into the ingested dry air area/weakness. It looks to be wobbling back toward the east and looking stronger/more convection around the eye, per the last frames of satellite. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 5, 2019 10:03:22 GMT -6
Looks like Charleston will avoid any tremendous flooding that was feared. Still rough, but not like it could have been.
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Post by jeepers on Sept 5, 2019 10:11:11 GMT -6
Praying for no landfall. Sister’s home is about 8 miles inland from Moorehead City. She barely dodged the flooding last year. Nobody in that area needs this.
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Post by amstilost on Sept 5, 2019 10:11:48 GMT -6
12pm update increased to 115MPH
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Post by dschreib on Sept 5, 2019 10:26:45 GMT -6
12pm update increased to 115MPH 110, I think...and they said that might be generous. Again, the people nearby probably don't care much at this point if it's 90, 110, or 115.
"Based on this, the initial intensity is decreased to a possibly generous 95 kt."
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 5, 2019 12:04:27 GMT -6
12pm update increased to 115MPH It was 115 all morning. Preasure is rising a bit and winds have decreased ever so slightly... and reintensification has ended. Looking at the damage from Grand Bahama is so aweful... truly incovievable.. |
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