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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 5, 2019 16:50:23 GMT -6
Watching the models too closely is like watching the stock market too closely. Both will leave you confused haha. The 18z GFS run went back to showing a little snow for Tuesday. Sometimes it's best to just sit back and not get caught up in the model madness haha (unless you like it). Do you guys know if the 06/18z runs still have less data than 00/12z runs?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 5, 2019 17:00:33 GMT -6
Watching the models too closely is like watching the stock market too closely. Both will leave you confused haha. The 18z GFS run went back to showing a little snow for Tuesday. Sometimes it's best to just sit back and not get caught up in the model madness haha (unless you like it). Do you guys know if the 06/18z runs still have less data than 00/12z runs? I’ve heard that’s just a rumor and the verification scores of the off hour runs are just as high as the 00z/12z runs. |
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Post by mchafin on Dec 5, 2019 17:38:30 GMT -6
Watching the models too closely is like watching the stock market too closely. Both will leave you confused haha. The 18z GFS run went back to showing a little snow for Tuesday. Sometimes it's best to just sit back and not get caught up in the model madness haha (unless you like it). Do you guys know if the 06/18z runs still have less data than 00/12z runs? I’ve heard that’s just a rumor and the verification scores of the off hour runs are just as high as the 00z/12z runs. I will disagree with your stock market analogy. Why? 1) There are people that make millions of dollars by watching the stock market closely. 2) There are people that lose millions of dollars by NOT watching the stock market closely. 3) Watching the stock market closely can give you insights into what's going to happen based on empirical evidence (somewhat like looking at analogous storms/set ups). |
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 5, 2019 17:45:24 GMT -6
The data assimilation monitoring page is here. www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/idsb/nwprod/realtime/The 12Z cycle incorporated 36,689,170 pieces of information. The 18Z cycle incorporated 38,006,003 pieces of information. Quality is probably more important than quantity though. The 6/18 cycles are still missing the crucial RAOBs of course. This is partially offset by aircraft soundings which are said to be at least as accurate as RAOBs, but the data is constrained by the limited altitude of commercial aircraft. Its probably worth mentioning that the 6/18 cycles build upon the 6 hour forecast from the 0/12 cycles so if you improve the quality of the on-hour initialization it should have a positive impact on the off-hour initialization as well. Unless something has changed recently I believe RAOBs are still essential for improving model skill past day 5 likely owing to the direct sampling of the stratosphere. I was actually just looking at model skill scores this morning. It seems as though the FV3 may have closed the gap between 6/18 and 0/12 even more. Though the gap was already small enough that it likely had little if any statistical significance. The differences were still only in the thousandths of a decimal place even on D8 forecasts at 500mb. Objective verification scores can be found here. www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ |
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 5, 2019 17:58:58 GMT -6
It's kind of hard to fathom that we're now collecting and injecting over 100 million observations into NWP models daily. I wonder how long it will be until that jumps up to 1 billion.
And I can't help but think of Dr. Evil bringing his pinky finger up to his lip and saying..."1 million observations"...and thinking that is impressive.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 5, 2019 17:59:34 GMT -6
I’ve heard that’s just a rumor and the verification scores of the off hour runs are just as high as the 00z/12z runs. I will disagree with your stock market analogy. Why? 1) There are people that make millions of dollars by watching the stock market closely. 2) There are people that lose millions of dollars by NOT watching the stock market closely. 3) Watching the stock market closely can give you insights into what's going to happen based on empirical evidence (somewhat like looking at analogous storms/set ups). Unless it becomes manipulated and the correlation between fundamentals and stock prices erodes... |
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Post by bear1 on Dec 5, 2019 19:03:47 GMT -6
I’ve heard that’s just a rumor and the verification scores of the off hour runs are just as high as the 00z/12z runs. I will disagree with your stock market analogy. Why? 1) There are people that make millions of dollars by watching the stock market closely. 2) There are people that lose millions of dollars by NOT watching the stock market closely. 3) Watching the stock market closely can give you insights into what's going to happen based on empirical evidence (somewhat like looking at analogous storms/set ups). I would have to disagree with your reply.... The atmosphere is created by so called (Mother nature) & cannot be changed or manipulated by human interference in respect to investing money. whereas, momma nature will do what she does regardless of the stock market prices. The computers that are analyzing the atmosphere are created by humans & unless there is a way to bribe the computers into actually changing the atmosphere..... it ain't gonna happen!  |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 5, 2019 20:11:24 GMT -6
Deep man
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 5, 2019 22:05:27 GMT -6
GFS brings some secondary development pretty close to the area Tuesday
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 5, 2019 22:17:05 GMT -6
00z gfs looks like an ice storm setup at Day 7 to me.
It scours the cold air quickly as BRTN alluded to, but the general setup looks familiar.
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Post by dschreib on Dec 5, 2019 23:26:34 GMT -6
I’ve heard that’s just a rumor and the verification scores of the off hour runs are just as high as the 00z/12z runs. I will disagree with your stock market analogy. Why? 1) There are people that make millions of dollars by watching the stock market closely. 2) There are people that lose millions of dollars by NOT watching the stock market closely. 3) Watching the stock market closely can give you insights into what's going to happen based on empirical evidence (somewhat like looking at analogous storms/set ups). According to the stock trading platform, eToro, a staggering 80% of day traders lose money over the course of a year, with the median “loss” being 36.3%. Others say it's closer to 90-95%. The average investor, much like the average weather enthusiast, panics when the market drops and sells at precisely the wrong time. Most of us are better off just riding out the extreme swings...both investing and model-watching. |
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Post by dschreib on Dec 5, 2019 23:29:17 GMT -6
Unless it becomes manipulated and the correlation between fundamentals and stock prices erodes...
I'm in the copper industry--don't get me started.
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Post by mchafin on Dec 6, 2019 0:04:05 GMT -6
I will disagree with your stock market analogy. Why? 1) There are people that make millions of dollars by watching the stock market closely. 2) There are people that lose millions of dollars by NOT watching the stock market closely. 3) Watching the stock market closely can give you insights into what's going to happen based on empirical evidence (somewhat like looking at analogous storms/set ups). According to the stock trading platform, eToro, a staggering 80% of day traders lose money over the course of a year, with the median “loss” being 36.3%. Others say it's closer to 90-95%. The average investor, much like the average weather enthusiast, panics when the market drops and sells at precisely the wrong time. Most of us are better off just riding out the extreme swings...both investing and model-watching. All I was trying to say was don’t compare the stock market to watching weather models. They are totally unrelated. Ok? |
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Post by dschreib on Dec 6, 2019 0:12:29 GMT -6
All good.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 6, 2019 0:56:14 GMT -6
Judging by radar it doesn't look like the rain is going to get much farther north than an E-W line extending from I-64 in the city. Just means a little less mud on the northern half of the metro.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 6, 2019 4:19:50 GMT -6
How in the world can the forecast still say 80% of rain here when there hasn't been a drop all night and nothing even close to here.
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Post by REB on Dec 6, 2019 6:30:35 GMT -6
Happy Birthday Snowman 99
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 6, 2019 6:38:27 GMT -6
Thank you Reb
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Post by dschreib on Dec 6, 2019 6:43:01 GMT -6
Happy birthday, Meh-man!
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 6, 2019 7:14:55 GMT -6
Lol
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Post by bear1 on Dec 6, 2019 10:17:44 GMT -6
I got a gut feeling ....that a man named snow, might get a little inebriated tonight? HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 6, 2019 10:42:14 GMT -6
12z gfs is boring until Day 10, which is worthless
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 6, 2019 11:14:12 GMT -6
Happy Birthday Snowman!
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 6, 2019 12:14:28 GMT -6
Happy Birthday 99!!
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weatherfan17- Denver, CO
Junior Forecaster
From Ste. Genevieve, MO currently residing in the Mile High City, Denver CO
Posts: 436 
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Post by weatherfan17- Denver, CO on Dec 6, 2019 12:43:01 GMT -6
To me the long range models are certainly hinting at a colder and stormier pattern. The past couple days the models have been hinting at this with energy dropping down in the four corners region and under cutting the cold. Especially the 10+ day range could be some fun times ahead. Plan on driving back to Missouri on the 23rd so hopefully will have something to track with you all while I’m back for Christmas with the family.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 6, 2019 12:45:29 GMT -6
Thanks guys for the bday wishes. Almost time to go have a drink.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 6, 2019 12:52:38 GMT -6
12z euro has an Ohio Valley bomb next weekend.
Gfs has shown a storm around then as well.
It’s probably the next thing worth watching, but we need it further west.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 6, 2019 12:55:16 GMT -6
Watching the models too closely is like watching the stock market too closely. Both will leave you confused haha. The 18z GFS run went back to showing a little snow for Tuesday. Sometimes it's best to just sit back and not get caught up in the model madness haha (unless you like it). Do you guys know if the 06/18z runs still have less data than 00/12z runs? I’ve heard that’s just a rumor and the verification scores of the off hour runs are just as high as the 00z/12z runs. This makes sense. Good to know, thanks! |
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 6, 2019 12:57:17 GMT -6
The data assimilation monitoring page is here. www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/idsb/nwprod/realtime/The 12Z cycle incorporated 36,689,170 pieces of information. The 18Z cycle incorporated 38,006,003 pieces of information. Quality is probably more important than quantity though. The 6/18 cycles are still missing the crucial RAOBs of course. This is partially offset by aircraft soundings which are said to be at least as accurate as RAOBs, but the data is constrained by the limited altitude of commercial aircraft. Its probably worth mentioning that the 6/18 cycles build upon the 6 hour forecast from the 0/12 cycles so if you improve the quality of the on-hour initialization it should have a positive impact on the off-hour initialization as well. Unless something has changed recently I believe RAOBs are still essential for improving model skill past day 5 likely owing to the direct sampling of the stratosphere. I was actually just looking at model skill scores this morning. It seems as though the FV3 may have closed the gap between 6/18 and 0/12 even more. Though the gap was already small enough that it likely had little if any statistical significance. The differences were still only in the thousandths of a decimal place even on D8 forecasts at 500mb. Objective verification scores can be found here. www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/Thanks for all the info. I'm impressed by the amount of detail you know! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 6, 2019 12:58:07 GMT -6
12z euro has an Ohio Valley bomb next weekend. Gfs has shown a storm around then as well. It’s probably the next thing worth watching, but we need it further west. The day 8-10 range is really peaking my interest. Models are showing a strong southern storm with cold air lurking very near by |
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