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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 6, 2019 13:11:21 GMT -6
12z euro has an Ohio Valley bomb next weekend. Gfs has shown a storm around then as well. It’s probably the next thing worth watching, but we need it further west. The day 8-10 range is really peaking my interest. Models are showing a strong southern storm with cold air lurking very near by That's the timeframe I've been keeping an eye on...definitely seems like something is brewing. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 6, 2019 14:23:37 GMT -6
That "thing" next weekend is energy coming out of the Gulf. It is tantalizingly close to phasing with the northern stream, though that seems exceptionally unlikely.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 6, 2019 15:28:02 GMT -6
Looks like the ol’ CMC is also trying to brew something of interest up around D10. That is also the timeframe that has perked my interest.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 6, 2019 15:53:05 GMT -6
I really think anything that happens will be an eastern storm..in the 8 to 10 day period. Who knows. Lol
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Post by amstilost on Dec 6, 2019 17:34:47 GMT -6
Happy Birthday Snowman and the several other Dec. Birthdays. I guess my Birthday present of a good snow on the 10th is not looking too promising now.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 6, 2019 18:19:15 GMT -6
Happy Birthday Snowman99! I hope the atmosphere can make the next snow storm a Union jackpot and not a Union hole haha.
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weatherfan17- Denver, CO
Junior Forecaster
From Ste. Genevieve, MO currently residing in the Mile High City, Denver CO
Posts: 436 
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Post by weatherfan17- Denver, CO on Dec 6, 2019 22:44:11 GMT -6
00Z GFS showing consistency with a storm system taking shape. Atleast we having something to track again. Shows a very nice storm for the StL area.
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 6, 2019 23:22:17 GMT -6
GFS this evening... after this cold shot next week- would think the models are going to have a difficult time. Active split flow with little spacing latitude-wise... it won't take much to have one wind up and surprise someone.  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 6, 2019 23:24:15 GMT -6
That’s some long range double chocolate cake on the GFS
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on Dec 7, 2019 8:10:25 GMT -6
Sorry I missed the Mascoutah Christmas Grand Marshal for last nights lighted Christmas Parade. It was our very own Bossman Chris
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 7, 2019 10:29:25 GMT -6
GFS not really that cold next week. Lows in the 20's, highs well into the 30's. It was way colder a month ago. Also, dry as a bone
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 7, 2019 11:00:30 GMT -6
I would love a bone dry amd mild next 3 to 4 weeks. Winter can start after january 15th. I am starting to enjoy mild winters. Plus i do not want snow around holidays i much rather be with family than plowing
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 7, 2019 11:03:44 GMT -6
We’ll be hard pressed to have any winter weather with the shape the teleconnections are in. Pretty ugly and have been for the last several days. I like the dome of cold in Canada but that’s about it right now.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 7, 2019 11:20:23 GMT -6
We’ll be hard pressed to have any winter weather with the shape the teleconnections are in. Pretty ugly and have been for the last several days. I like the dome of cold in Canada but that’s about it right now. Euro has the AO going neutral to negative mid month followed shortly after by the NAO trending negative. Mid month on still looks fast paced with several southern systems and quick shots of arctic air. Good recipe for model headaches |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 7, 2019 15:00:14 GMT -6
I'm glad I didn't get invested in next week, or the week after, looks pretty crappy.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 7, 2019 15:21:27 GMT -6
Ya everything on the GFS either looks sheared out or too far east or north for us. Booooo
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 7, 2019 15:21:52 GMT -6
Although cfs looks brutal cold and snowy
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 8, 2019 8:24:13 GMT -6
Pretty consistent hintvof snow nearby the 15th
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 8, 2019 9:12:39 GMT -6
SO much for the 'arctic air'. Highs near 40 then into the 40's next week in the forecast, way up from highs near 30-32. Lol
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 8, 2019 9:27:10 GMT -6
At least its average no blow torch
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 8, 2019 10:15:38 GMT -6
12z gfs just misses the phase on Saturday.
That time frame is very much in play still.
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 8, 2019 11:43:12 GMT -6
So I assume the Cold Snap for this coming week has fizzled out?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 8, 2019 12:04:24 GMT -6
Surprisingly the gfs is pretty interesting the entire run.
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Post by amstilost on Dec 8, 2019 12:09:10 GMT -6
Just 2 more weeks...  Actually, like the vorticity vort loop that coz posted the other day...there is lots going on and it will be something spinning up that the models will miss until close to the 'event'. certainly seems more chances on the horizon. |
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Post by weatherj on Dec 8, 2019 12:37:05 GMT -6
Are there other things in a pattern that can dictate the overall outcome beside the indicies? I'm asking this in light of the models not looking too bad ( I know they can flip at any time) despite the EPO/NAO/AO values not looking good in the near future.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 8, 2019 13:20:57 GMT -6
12z euro has a 4-6 inch storm in a week north of 70.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 8, 2019 14:07:00 GMT -6
The EPS is ugly.. Big ridge building overhead several days before Christmas, with way warm temps at 850 and surface.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 8, 2019 14:14:21 GMT -6
Warm christmas is great for all of us plow drivers.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 8, 2019 14:47:23 GMT -6
The EPS is ugly.. Big ridge building overhead several days before Christmas, with way warm temps at 850 and surface. The euro weeklies have been showing that ridge for awhile now. Hopefully it gets knocked down rather quickly |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 8, 2019 15:37:05 GMT -6
from disco
As has been noted the past 24-48 hours, the midweek cold snap has
continued to moderate. This is in response to a slight (50-100 mile)
shift of a shortwave trough across the Great Lakes and its
associated arctic air in its wake. The northern Plains, Great Lakes
and northeast will still be very frigid. In fact, lows well below
zero are forecast Tuesday and Wednesday morning across much of the
Upper Midwest. However, for our region, this slight shift of the
coldest air to the northeast leaves the bi-state region with only
slightly below normal temperatures through the middle of this week.
Lows Wednesday and Thursday morning are forecast to be in the in the
upper teens and twenties, with highs on Tuesday and Wednesday in the
thirties and forties.
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