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Post by amstilost on Dec 15, 2019 8:14:51 GMT -6
The 12 nam seems concerning with the jump north of the 1st wave all of a sudden. We shall see. I figure I can take the last snowfall map posted and squeeze the north/south edges toward the bullseye zone which drops me out of the higher snow totals that have showed up the last few runs. I don't think the snow band will be that prolific with the snow totals in that wide of a band. Nothing professional here and not whining, just seems to be the way it works out when a track it honed in on. Let the fun begin. BTW, no blade on the 4 wheeler yet. :-)
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 15, 2019 8:23:09 GMT -6
I am not at all confident with metro STL. I slipped my 4 to 7 band south another 20 miles or so into St Louis County.. but that was only to capture the potential dor 4 to 5 across the metro. I really think the heaviest will set up just north of I-70...wthe drop off south of there will depend on transition times to sleet...lots of variables. So exactly what 12z NAM just showed. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 15, 2019 8:28:14 GMT -6
Just woke up and peaked at the radar and wave #1 looks like it's going to mostly miss along and South of 70
That really hurts
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 15, 2019 8:29:26 GMT -6
Radar looks great to me even in southwest mo
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Post by pbc12871 on Dec 15, 2019 8:31:17 GMT -6
Radar isn't promising.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 15, 2019 8:34:17 GMT -6
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 15, 2019 8:34:21 GMT -6
Just checked my cameras at my camper (Callaway County next to power plant) and nothing hitting the ground there yet
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 15, 2019 8:38:29 GMT -6
And looking at the nam and short range models just confirm what my gut screamed yesterday.
Except worse.
Anyone South of 70 will be by lucky to get more than 1" of snow with wave #1.
In fact I will just say anyone South of Moscow Mills to Alton line will get up to 2" of snow and sleet.
Along 44 and South less than 1/2".
Sorry
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Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Dec 15, 2019 8:40:51 GMT -6
mPing starting to show reports of snow around Columbia.
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Post by pbc12871 on Dec 15, 2019 8:42:32 GMT -6
Lol. From double chocolate cake to dog crap in the course of an hour.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 15, 2019 8:43:26 GMT -6
Honestly ghus it all lools about what we thought basically 3 in city to 7 on 70
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 15, 2019 8:44:23 GMT -6
Plus look at the development by springfield
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2019 8:46:48 GMT -6
Guys relax This sounding off the hi res NAM this afternoon is uh, interesting  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 15, 2019 8:48:38 GMT -6
Precip is going to expand rapidly across the region this afternoon...still like the 2-4" call for the metro for today.
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228 
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Post by steve on Dec 15, 2019 8:49:23 GMT -6
I forget the stages... but RELAX and let the system play out
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 15, 2019 8:49:26 GMT -6
North shift should of been expected since Saturday's system was ultimately more north then models showed it only correcting at the last minute. Also dry air was always an issue with easterly flow and dewpoints that are quite low in the teens, not the mid to upper 20s to match with the actual air temps which would of signaled a more moist atmosphere. Writing has been on the wall for sometime, but of course we got sucked into the juicer QPF totals and farther south displacement then actual reality. In other words Lucy had already lifted the football but we were too blind to see it. Also of note is how quickly the models have all but stopped showing the juiced up QPF even up north as guidance realizes that it's actually indeed drier at the surface. If it's any consolation, wave 2 still looks to be in the cards and could still give us a couple inches.
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 15, 2019 8:49:30 GMT -6
Light flak age has begun at my house.......Marthasville
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 15, 2019 8:54:07 GMT -6
Guys relax This sounding off the hi res NAM this afternoon is uh, interesting The hires nam has no snow accumulation South of 70. That's if you believe the Southern edge is realistic. Using Chris Higgins method about the Southern edge. It's more likely you will need to be along an Alton IL axis to see accumulating snow. |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 15, 2019 8:54:43 GMT -6
Yall chill its all on track. Radar is blossoming southwest
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Post by goosetalk - Troy, MO on Dec 15, 2019 8:59:34 GMT -6
Salt shaker in Wright City
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 15, 2019 9:00:43 GMT -6
Guys relax This sounding off the hi res NAM this afternoon is uh, interesting The hires nam has no snow accumulation South of 70. That's if you believe the Southern edge is realistic. Using Chris Higgins method about the Southern edge. It's more likely you will need to be along an Alton IL axis to see accumulating snow. That depends on what output you chose to use as your base. The radar seems to support within a few miles my update this morning. There will ALWAYS be errors on the exact southern edge of a razor sharp cutoff...so lets just let it play out and see where we are when the dust settles. No reason to adjust anything else base on model trends for today. |
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 15, 2019 9:02:13 GMT -6
Here's a fresh aircraft sounding out of Lambert. Very dry, but thin, layer just below 850mb where temp maxes out at 0.3C...which is probably still snow anyway. That layer should wetbulb down in temperature initially with no p-type issues. Then the question is does warm advection more than offset lift/wetbulbing and bring us back over 0C in the metro?  |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 15, 2019 9:06:24 GMT -6
Snow falling on the MoDOT camera in Warrenton and Wentzville
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 15, 2019 9:07:16 GMT -6
 Coating already since last check at camper |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 15, 2019 9:08:21 GMT -6
HRRR still looks good.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 15, 2019 9:09:44 GMT -6
Here is what I updated to this morning... emphasizing that the 4" to 7" band was nudged south because I expect 4 or 5 total inches across the STL county...area and that 7 inch totals would hold just north.   |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 15, 2019 9:12:34 GMT -6
Verbatim it has less than 1" along 44 through the metro and 2" along 70. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 15, 2019 9:13:53 GMT -6
RGEM still holding the course, and is stronger, more juiced up with round/wave 2.
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Post by goosetalk - Troy, MO on Dec 15, 2019 9:17:42 GMT -6
Dimes and nickels in Wright City
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Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Dec 15, 2019 9:21:16 GMT -6
Light snow in Dardenne Prairie.
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