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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 15, 2019 9:21:25 GMT -6
There is always an underestimate of the waa aloft, especially the southern flanks. There is always bullish qpf 24 to 36 hours before the event. There is always a last minute jog to the north. Finally there is always a more gradual snow accum gradient on the southern flank. Combine that with the model inconsistency, and you hv the rsn why i wld not accept some of the higher accum forecasts. But impact shld still be considered. If the nws says this is warning criteria thats fine. It brought ppl out to do their christmas shopping yesterday and hopefully will keep roads clear. Im thinking 2 inches or so which is a notch above my earlier thinking but nowhere near the higher totals that may be seen to my nw.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 15, 2019 9:22:48 GMT -6
RGEM shows a foot of snow downtown into the western suburbs, rest of the 370/255 loop sees 8-10" with peeps outside of that but still in the metro counties getting 6-8".
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 15, 2019 9:23:02 GMT -6
And yes...flurries in dardenne
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Dec 15, 2019 9:24:08 GMT -6
Just starting to see snow in WashMO.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 15, 2019 9:25:28 GMT -6
Flirries in st.peters
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Dec 15, 2019 9:26:24 GMT -6
Very light snow in O’Fallon
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 15, 2019 9:27:23 GMT -6
Precip in every direction of me but not here. Feels right.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 15, 2019 9:33:10 GMT -6
Band is strting to slow north push amd lining up on 70
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 15, 2019 9:34:51 GMT -6
Maybe I’ll get a little something out of this blob coming out of the Ozarks. Certainly nothing hitting the ground yet but radar does look rather explosive.
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Post by goosetalk - Troy, MO on Dec 15, 2019 9:36:26 GMT -6
Ground is covered with just the tips of the grass showing. Dimes, nickels and a few quarters.
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Post by pbc12871 on Dec 15, 2019 9:43:15 GMT -6
A few flurries breaking through in Ballwin.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2019 9:46:58 GMT -6
Wave 2 looks good on the GFS
Let’s see how this first wave unfolds. I like BRTNs 2-4” for the metro today
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Post by jeepers on Dec 15, 2019 9:47:53 GMT -6
Stray tiny flakes and what looks like graupel.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 15, 2019 9:49:00 GMT -6
Heavy snow st.peters
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Dec 15, 2019 9:49:13 GMT -6
Light to sometimes moderate snow here in Lake St Louis. Driveways starting to get a coating. Should be a fun storm to watch. Always some twists and turns along the way.
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Post by pbc12871 on Dec 15, 2019 9:53:30 GMT -6
This first wave looks like it is going to set up about fifteen miles to my north unless it starts building south. Painful. The flurries already stopped too.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 15, 2019 9:53:47 GMT -6
A few small flakes starting to break out in West Belleville.
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228
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Post by steve on Dec 15, 2019 9:54:23 GMT -6
Heavy snow in Wentzville
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Post by RyanD on Dec 15, 2019 9:54:34 GMT -6
My NWS forecast calls for 2-4" today. Pretty much in line with Chris' map except I'm right on the southern fringe of the 2-4" on Chris' map. Gotta love how everyone is freaking out over the radar!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2019 9:55:39 GMT -6
This first wave looks like it is going to set up about fifteen miles to my north unless it starts building south. Painful. The flurries already stopped too. It will build south. Best forcing will be this afternoon |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 15, 2019 9:56:13 GMT -6
My NWS forecast calls for 2-4" today. Pretty much in line with Chris' map except I'm right on the southern fringe of the 2-4" on Chris' map. Gotta love how everyone is freaking out over the radar! We aren't getting 2-4". The folks just North of 70 are going to get crushed tho. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 15, 2019 9:57:27 GMT -6
Light snow in Troy, mo
Here we go!!! 😁😃😁😃😁
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Post by goosetalk - Troy, MO on Dec 15, 2019 9:57:28 GMT -6
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 15, 2019 9:58:15 GMT -6
If someone can explain to me how is folks along and SE of 44 are going to get 2-4".
Which will require .25-.50 qpf today from a meteorological standpoint please tell me
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 15, 2019 9:59:18 GMT -6
St.charles coundy is in a great spot.
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Post by scmhack on Dec 15, 2019 9:59:42 GMT -6
My NWS forecast calls for 2-4" today. Pretty much in line with Chris' map except I'm right on the southern fringe of the 2-4" on Chris' map. Gotta love how everyone is freaking out over the radar! We aren't getting 2-4". The folks just North of 70 are going to get crushed tho. Look over the ozarks and the previous HRRR runs man. You gotta quit changing your mind post to post and stick with an idea |
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Post by RyanD on Dec 15, 2019 10:01:30 GMT -6
My NWS forecast calls for 2-4" today. Pretty much in line with Chris' map except I'm right on the southern fringe of the 2-4" on Chris' map. Gotta love how everyone is freaking out over the radar! We aren't getting 2-4". The folks just North of 70 are going to get crushed tho. Whatever..... |
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Post by scmhack on Dec 15, 2019 10:02:41 GMT -6
We aren't getting 2-4". The folks just North of 70 are going to get crushed tho. Whatever..... Andlook at the composite radar. Its filling in as well |
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Dec 15, 2019 10:02:59 GMT -6
Looks like the panic bus is picking up a lot of passengers today. Everyone relax! Let it play out.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 15, 2019 10:04:33 GMT -6
Moderate snow. Ground is turning white.
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