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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 15, 2019 10:05:15 GMT -6
Looks like the panic bus is picking up a lot of passengers today. Everyone relax! Let it play out. Were gonna need a bigger bus. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Dec 15, 2019 10:05:27 GMT -6
Some things will never change.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 15, 2019 10:06:42 GMT -6
St. Charles and Lincoln County are getting the best stuff.
Friv might be a little hyperbolic, but he isn’t wrong about the southern edge being in trouble
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2019 10:08:13 GMT -6
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 151605Z - 152000Z
SUMMARY...One or two narrow bands of heavy snow, including rates in
excess of 1 inch per hour, may impact portions of the Interstate 70,
44, 55 and 64 corridors of central Missouri through south central
Illinois this afternoon. This includes much of the St. Louis
metropolitan area, particularly from 1-5 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent associated with at least a couple of
low amplitude short wave perturbations approaching the lower
Missouri Valley is contributing to a general ongoing increase in
precipitation. As largely sub-freezing thermodynamic profiles
saturate from mid to lower levels, this is most prominently in the
form of snow, and will continue to gradually spread eastward across
the lower Missouri/middle Mississippi Valley region through mid to
late afternoon.
Within this region of developing light to moderate snow,
considerable model output indicates the evolution of at least one or
two mesoscale bands of heavier snow are possible this afternoon.
This appears largely in response to forecast strengthening of mid
tropospheric frontogenetic forcing, where there will probably be
periods with lift becoming maximized in the favorable mixed-phase
layer for large dendritic ice crystal growth.
It appears that this may commence across parts of central Missouri,
near/south of the Interstate 70 corridor, by midday, before rapidly
developing eastward and impacting much of the St. Louis metropolitan
area during the 1-5 PM CDT time frame. This may include a 1-3 hour
period of heavy accumulating snow rates in excess of 1 inch per hour
at any one particular location.
..Kerr.. 12/15/2019
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 15, 2019 10:08:52 GMT -6
We aren't getting 2-4". The folks just North of 70 are going to get crushed tho. Look over the ozarks and the previous HRRR runs man. You gotta quit changing your mind post to post and stick with an idea Those previous runs had the band currently sliding North of 70 along and South of 44. It's pretty deflating feeling. The GFS is even further North that the name today. The rgem is South but is already way behind what is actually happening. I'm mostly pissed because this was so obvious for days and we got teased bad this time |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 15, 2019 10:09:49 GMT -6
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Post by pbc12871 on Dec 15, 2019 10:11:19 GMT -6
We just kicked over to a moderate salt shaker snow in Ballwin.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 15, 2019 10:14:42 GMT -6
Heavy snow the last 10-15 minutes. Visibility is less than ¼ mile. Untreated pavement and grass getting nicely white
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443 
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Post by mccarthb on Dec 15, 2019 10:15:20 GMT -6
If someone can explain to me how is folks along and SE of 44 are going to get 2-4". Which will require .25-.50 qpf today from a meteorological standpoint please tell me Quit being such a negative Nancy. Sit back, relax, take a break from the models and let’s see how this thing pans out. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 15, 2019 10:15:38 GMT -6
Still waiting for my first flake of the day here in St Clair. Looks like it should happen in about an hour or so
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 15, 2019 10:16:51 GMT -6
Look over the ozarks and the previous HRRR runs man. You gotta quit changing your mind post to post and stick with an idea Those previous runs had the band currently sliding North of 70 along and South of 44. It's pretty deflating feeling. The GFS is even further North that the name today. The rgem is South but is already way behind what is actually happening. I'm mostly pissed because this was so obvious for days and we got teased bad this time I don't see Belleville getting 2-4 today... I never have...never said they would. I think BLV will see 1" today... and has a decent shot at 1-3 tomorrow...with a storm total of 2-4 likely. The latest SPC meso outlines in perfect detail what my thinking is for today...and has been hinted at in the models for a couple of days. The existence of one maybe two (probably two) mesoscale bands this afternoon. The folks along/north of I-70 will get the benefit of both. I'm getting grazed by the first one in Chesterfield and my ground is already turning a little white. The second band will fill in from the south...and that's where the southern half of the metro will see their best shot of precip today...but only getting about half of what the north side gets. BLV is on the southeast side of the metro... and I think you'll see maybe 1" today from that second band. IF it hangs around a little longer...maybe 2" |
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 15, 2019 10:20:03 GMT -6
Almost stopped here at the house. About a 1/4” so far here.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 15, 2019 10:21:23 GMT -6
If someone can explain to me how is folks along and SE of 44 are going to get 2-4". Which will require .25-.50 qpf today from a meteorological standpoint please tell me Quit being such a negative Nancy. Sit back, relax, take a break from the models and let’s see how this thing pans out. Folks who have hung around the corner for a while know that Friv gets wound up tight. He is part of the character of the board and we enjoy having him around. He has a way of sometimes picking out some abstract factor in a storm that ends up being really important...he is a good extra set of eyes to have on the charts. But like many (myself included) patience with wobbling models can get run thin leading up to the last moments before a storm. This storm has been especially annoying because of the mesoscale band potential. The sudden big shift south yesterday was particularly hard to to handle. What may have happened is the model tried to merge two bands into one...because as I look at radar...it sure looks like we have two forming...with the most intense on the north side of town. Let's just relax and let mother nature take us for the ride. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Dec 15, 2019 10:23:18 GMT -6
Lots of verga here.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 15, 2019 10:25:17 GMT -6
FYI nothing is falling under these returns in Perryville.
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padlur
Junior Forecaster
Ballwin(by the golf course)
Posts: 304
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Post by padlur on Dec 15, 2019 10:29:01 GMT -6
Salt shaker for the past half-hour here, Ballwin
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 15, 2019 10:29:07 GMT -6
Really coming down now!!! Wow!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2019 10:31:11 GMT -6
Report of 1.8” in an hour near Wentzville
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 15, 2019 10:32:31 GMT -6
Huge pileup on 70 in st charles county... 13 cars... road closed I beleive.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 15, 2019 10:35:58 GMT -6
Huge pileup on 70 in st charles county... 13 cars... road closed I beleive. Yikes that’s not good. Heck I thought the sun was gonna pop out here a few minutes ago. |
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Post by goosetalk - Troy, MO on Dec 15, 2019 10:38:02 GMT -6
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Post by bororug on Dec 15, 2019 10:40:44 GMT -6
Few stray flurries starting to fall just SW of Desoto. Temp: 31
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 15, 2019 10:41:41 GMT -6
Looks like the southerm band will overlap near 70
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 15, 2019 10:42:37 GMT -6
Likely 1 to 3 this morning near and north of 70 then 1 to 3 with southern heavy band slowly moving in.
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snowcat
Junior Forecaster
Bowling Green, MO
Posts: 280 
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Post by snowcat on Dec 15, 2019 10:44:36 GMT -6
Finally getting some flakeage here in Bowling Green. Very light dusting on cars so far. 23*
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 15, 2019 10:52:28 GMT -6
I’m hoping that is a band tryout to develop just south of Metro..... that would be good for many of us
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 15, 2019 10:52:45 GMT -6
Huge pileup on 70 in st charles county... 13 cars... road closed I beleive. We heard a bunch of sirens a bit ago and wondered if something had happened on 70 or 370 |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2019 10:55:11 GMT -6
I’m hoping that is a band tryout to develop just south of Metro..... that would be good for many of us Thats band #2
It should continue to strengthen as it moves north
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Post by birddog on Dec 15, 2019 10:56:54 GMT -6
Very light snow has just begun here. 24.7°
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Post by bororug on Dec 15, 2019 11:04:38 GMT -6
Decent radar returns over the house just SW of Desoto, but all Virga thus far.
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