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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 15, 2019 21:34:10 GMT -6
Is that storm total or just for Dec 16? That’s from 6pm tonight onward True good point the time it's initialized, but not much has accumulated from 6pm up through midnight (besides some freezing drizzle) tonight. A reference for everyone on the board (most on here already know this): 00z UTC is 6pm CST during fall back days 00z UTC is 7pm CDT during spring forward days Until we get on one time zone year round 😉 |
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cowboy
Wishcaster
10 miles west of rolla
Posts: 197 
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Post by cowboy on Dec 15, 2019 21:37:20 GMT -6
Can someone post the NWS zone forecast that you had spoken of? Just click on your point forecast then go Down and click on zone forecast for your county |
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Post by jeepers on Dec 15, 2019 21:39:01 GMT -6
Scraped the drive. Ice melt down. Made a pot of soup. NAM is out of its mind. I’m happy with a couple of inches on the ground, would love not to see freezing drizzle.
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Post by mchafin on Dec 15, 2019 21:42:16 GMT -6
Can someone post the NWS zone forecast that you had spoken of? Just click on your point forecast then go Down and click on zone forecast for your county MONDAY...Snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain in the morning, then snow in the afternoon. Snow heavy at times in the afternoon. Snow accumulation around 4 inches. Little or no ice accumulation. High around 30. North wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. .MONDAY NIGHT...Cloudy until early morning then becoming partly cloudy. Snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain in the evening, then slight chance of snow after midnight. Snow accumulation less than one inch. Total snow accumulation around 5 inches. A light glazing expected. Low around 20. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitat |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 15, 2019 21:42:25 GMT -6
00z gfs goes big too.
Definitely going to be some heavy sleet or ZR south of STL, but some very heavy snow on the edge of the mixed precipitation.
Impressive stuff. I’m extremely jealous as I enjoy my second snowless December in a row
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 15, 2019 21:43:20 GMT -6
Tomorrow looks like our wheel house (low pressure) type of storm. Though hopefully the warm wedge just above the surface isn't too big. It's a sharp cutoff big time. I predict power outages SE of I-44 due to FR+.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2019 21:43:43 GMT -6
yep that's a foot the gfs is printing out for the metro tomorrow
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 15, 2019 21:43:54 GMT -6
Gfs has near a foot in places lol
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 15, 2019 21:44:27 GMT -6
Dammit 920
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 15, 2019 21:44:53 GMT -6
That’s going to be some extremely intense precip. A much more classic backside setup. Could that yield thunder?
Also, if I’m below freezing which models have trended down in temp, would I possibly see sleet or are the upper levels still more supportive of zr?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 15, 2019 21:47:23 GMT -6
For those who asked about the "cross-hair" signature in bufkit soundings....here you go! The 00z NAM is a perfect example. Maximized omega (upward motion) sliced through the middle by the DGZ. Add to this that the profile is nearly isothermal and just below freezing...and you have something special to look at. If this model sounding is correct...or it is even close to reality... things may get very interesting for a few hours tomorrow.  |
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Post by amstilost on Dec 15, 2019 21:48:51 GMT -6
I am NOT jumping on this one, nope not gonna do it........ Could someone please post the GFS snow map...  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 15, 2019 21:51:15 GMT -6
That’s going to be some extremely intense precip. A much more classic backside setup. Could that yield thunder? Also, if I’m below freezing which models have trended down in temp, would I possibly see sleet or are the upper levels still more supportive of zr? There is some CAPE up high... and there is some evidence of CSI (slantwise instability)...although not as textbook as today's looked. Lapse rates get steeper the further we get into the afternoon. I wouldn't rule it out... but I'm not factoring it (thunder) into the equation at this time. Normally you want to see a deepening low/mid level system to have the thunder get realized. But certainly could be some convective elements north of the 700mb dry slot. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 15, 2019 21:52:14 GMT -6
Chris thinking zr or sleet for stg/Perryville tomorrow?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2019 21:52:15 GMT -6
That’s going to be some extremely intense precip. A much more classic backside setup. Could that yield thunder? Also, if I’m below freezing which models have trended down in temp, would I possibly see sleet or are the upper levels still more supportive of zr? Heres a sounding for Perryville at noon tomorrow. The warm layer is just above freezing (1c) but rather deep and low in the column. Looks like freezing rain
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 15, 2019 21:52:41 GMT -6
I am NOT jumping on this one, nope not gonna do it........ Could someone please post the GFS snow map... You asked for it....  Image from tropical tidbits |
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 15, 2019 21:55:07 GMT -6
For those who asked about the "cross-hair" signature in bufkit soundings....here you go! The 00z NAM is a perfect example. Maximized omega (upward motion) sliced through the middle by the DGZ. Add to this that the profile is nearly isothermal and just below freezing...and you have something special to look at. If this model sounding is correct...or it is even close to reality... things may get very interesting for a few hours tomorrow. Wow that's cool. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 15, 2019 21:55:56 GMT -6
The jet structure at 300mb suggests substantial jet coupling for several hours centered on our area too
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 15, 2019 21:59:05 GMT -6
Then there is the fact that the Euro at 12z had next to nothing from phase 2... a big departure from its previous runs. That is reason for taking a deep breath..among others.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2019 22:02:26 GMT -6
Then there is the fact that the Euro at 12z had next to nothing from phase 2... a big departure from its previous runs. That is reason for taking a deep breath..among others. The 18z did have a beefier phase 2, but not like the models show now |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 15, 2019 22:03:59 GMT -6
The 12z UK had some phase 2.. but was pretty skimpy...
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 15, 2019 22:09:10 GMT -6
The jet structure at 300mb suggests substantial jet coupling for several hours centered on our area too That's like a vacuum.  |
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 15, 2019 22:19:02 GMT -6
That is a respectable PV anomaly encroaching on the area.  |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 15, 2019 22:21:09 GMT -6
Would not want to trade places with Chris or any of the other meteorologists who have to predict this one in such a short time.
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 15, 2019 22:29:40 GMT -6
GFS/NAM are insane. I'm kinda having trouble reconciling the quick shearing nature of 500mb wave and the still messy 850mb low with the crazy QPF. To be honest the splotchy looking 500mb vertical velocity fields with absurdly high omega look flat out convective to me.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2019 22:37:49 GMT -6
UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019
I have made some big adjustments to the forecast for Monday.
In the short term the tonight period is evolving pretty much as
expected. The coverage of snow continues to diminish this evening
across the northern CWA as forcing shifts to the east with the
translation of a weak low amplitude short wave, and any
additional snow accumulations will be quite light this evening.
This area will eventually see a loss of cloud ice overnight and
transition to freezing drizzle with light glazing possible.
Further south we have already lost cloud ice across most of the
area along and south of I-70 and thus freezing drizzle will
dominate the remainder of the night with light glazing expected.
The new 00z NAM and at least the last 3 runs of the RAP are now
indicating much higher snow totals on Monday. An impressive
deformation zone is expected to evolve in response to large scale
forcing for ascent associated with a impressive migratory short
wave, strengthening mid level frontogenetic forcing, and
divergence within the entrance region of an ULJ streak. This band
should evolve during the morning and strengthen thru the
afternoon spreading from southwest/south central MO along a Rolla-
St. Louis-Litchfield line. Snow should exit to the east during
the evening. Snowfall rates within this band will approach an inch
per hour at times. I think additional snow accumulations with the
band will be in the 3-5 inch range along the aforementioned axis
centered through St. Louis. No changes to headlines are warranted
at this time.
Glass
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2019 22:39:53 GMT -6
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 15, 2019 22:42:02 GMT -6
GFS is showing PW 0.75" isopleth going through the metro area tomorrow. That's unusually high. I'll have to go back through some archives but I don't think PW typically gets that high even for 6"+ storms around here.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 15, 2019 22:46:42 GMT -6
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 15, 2019 22:55:13 GMT -6
That's amazing... thanks.
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