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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 15, 2019 22:58:04 GMT -6
UPDATE... Issued at 915 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019 I have made some big adjustments to the forecast for Monday. In the short term the tonight period is evolving pretty much as expected. The coverage of snow continues to diminish this evening across the northern CWA as forcing shifts to the east with the translation of a weak low amplitude short wave, and any additional snow accumulations will be quite light this evening. This area will eventually see a loss of cloud ice overnight and transition to freezing drizzle with light glazing possible. Further south we have already lost cloud ice across most of the area along and south of I-70 and thus freezing drizzle will dominate the remainder of the night with light glazing expected. The new 00z NAM and at least the last 3 runs of the RAP are now indicating much higher snow totals on Monday. An impressive deformation zone is expected to evolve in response to large scale forcing for ascent associated with a impressive migratory short wave, strengthening mid level frontogenetic forcing, and divergence within the entrance region of an ULJ streak. This band should evolve during the morning and strengthen thru the afternoon spreading from southwest/south central MO along a Rolla- St. Louis-Litchfield line. Snow should exit to the east during the evening. Snowfall rates within this band will approach an inch per hour at times. I think additional snow accumulations with the band will be in the 3-5 inch range along the aforementioned axis centered through St. Louis. No changes to headlines are warranted at this time. Glass This should all make us more confident. Glass is a class act! |
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steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228 
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Post by steve on Dec 15, 2019 23:01:52 GMT -6
Us in the western/northern area could be in for a reversal tomorrow. Need a 25 mile west shift!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 15, 2019 23:02:30 GMT -6
I would love to wait for the Euro after it's off run this morning... but I don't have time. I did go back to previous runs and oddly enough they look very similar...if not quite as robust...as what the NAM, GFS, RGEM, etc are portraying. When looking for the centroid of the heavy snow band... it is very similar on all available model runs this evening. The only differences are in the totals...and the width...especially on the southern edge. As mentioned earlier... there are some isothermal soundings that are VERY VERY close to freezing rain or rain...but the intensity of the precip and omega will help overcome that quickly. I am not going quite as intense as the models are showing with amounts... but given the outstanding sounding structures that I've already mentioned... along with the great jet coupling...it is definitely possible my numbers end up being too low. If the NAM and GFS are correct...several hours of very intense snowfall are likely from late morning into at least early afternoon...followed by a prolonged period of lighter snow. When all is added up...at least another 3" to 6" (and possibly more) seems likely coming right up I-44 into STL...and along I-70 in Illinois...in what should be about a 40 mile wide band. I have concerns for our friends down south...from Salem MO to Park Hills up to Mount Vernon, IL. Significant icing may develop before the precipitation finally changes to snow by mid-afternoon. Down that way...I think up to 1/4 inch of ice and perhaps as much as 1-3 inches of snow will be possible...most of that snow coming in the large shield of light snow that will follow the big thump in the afternoon. Tomorrow looks like a widespread high impact event.   |
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 15, 2019 23:18:23 GMT -6
The 700 dry punch holding off until tomorrow evening may keep some banding snows going longer than one would think... especially just south of the metro  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 15, 2019 23:25:27 GMT -6
I would love to stay and watch the Euro. But I'm done for the night. See you all in the morning.
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 15, 2019 23:26:04 GMT -6
Nice job Chris
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 15, 2019 23:27:40 GMT -6
0Z UKMET has close to 0.5" QPF near the airport. The cutoff to the north is pretty sharp.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 15, 2019 23:51:16 GMT -6
Snowing hard enough to accumulate.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 15, 2019 23:52:16 GMT -6
Some voodoo under the radar stuff tonight. Car is covered again after I cleared it around 9pm
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 16, 2019 0:01:00 GMT -6
Euro has a decent wave 2 but isn’t as amped as the other models
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Post by landscaper on Dec 16, 2019 0:14:23 GMT -6
How many inches on the Euro?
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snowcat
Junior Forecaster
Bowling Green, MO
Posts: 280 
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Post by snowcat on Dec 16, 2019 0:24:12 GMT -6
Wasn't able to measure until about 10:30 this evening up here in Bowling Green, so compaction might have affected my total a little bit. Measured 4.5" and 5" in several areas. Snow was really heavy at times, so it really added up after what seemed like a slow start. It was a very fun snow to watch coming down!
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 16, 2019 0:24:47 GMT -6
Rather unimpressive compared to all the other guys. EURO has a small band of 2-4”.  |
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 16, 2019 1:29:51 GMT -6
Off the RAP- that's a snow sounding  |
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 16, 2019 3:05:53 GMT -6
Steady as she goes with 06z nam, hi res and hrrr.
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Post by mosue56 on Dec 16, 2019 3:27:00 GMT -6
I really doubt I’ll try for that dental appt at 1:30! If it’s gonna be that snowy and coming down heavy....
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Post by landscaper on Dec 16, 2019 3:46:32 GMT -6
All models still show the metro and points south and east ground zero for what looks to be one crazy band of snow today!
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Post by mmarkillie82 on Dec 16, 2019 4:27:59 GMT -6
Just drove from Chesterfield to the airport. Some slick spots. 64 in Chesterfield might be the worst aside from exits and on ramps. Sure going to be a huge mess fast. Most spots still have a lane or 2 covered. Wish I was gunna be around for this one.
Enjoy the show!
As for the airport, terminal 2 side looks lime most flights are scheduled to operate...for now.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 16, 2019 5:34:12 GMT -6
Lightning showing up in sw mo around Branson but I don’t know precip type.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 16, 2019 5:47:06 GMT -6
Flurries here this morning. Ugh to go to work or stay home.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 16, 2019 5:50:21 GMT -6
Lightning showing up in sw mo around Branson but I don’t know precip type. Definitely some thunderstorms lifting up into the cold air...going to be a fun day watching this unfold! |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 16, 2019 6:15:40 GMT -6
Having trouble with the site this morning. Keep getting this pop up. Had to go to Tapatalk  |
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Post by perryville on Dec 16, 2019 6:21:46 GMT -6
Same Demerson. I am using Chrome on the iPhone. Don’t need that today. Tap a talk an app?
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 16, 2019 6:22:50 GMT -6
Yes
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Post by perryville on Dec 16, 2019 6:34:05 GMT -6
Perryville,MO Got it! Thank you! As for thunder, I’ve of seen thunder sleet a few times. Thinking thunder freezing rain or we trending colder? |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 16, 2019 6:36:11 GMT -6
Light snow falling at my place now.
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Post by perryville on Dec 16, 2019 6:36:43 GMT -6
Lightning showing up in sw mo around Branson but I don’t know precip type. Perryville,MO Looks like we missed out yesterday but may have some fun stuff today. Wife just headed south to teach. Perryville schools took precautionary measures and called off. Sounds like it could get messy quick. |
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Dec 16, 2019 6:38:15 GMT -6
Hamsters in Osage Beach.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Dec 16, 2019 6:44:28 GMT -6
Unfortunately the icy roads took the lives of 3 people in an accident in St Francois county last night.
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Post by tedrick65 on Dec 16, 2019 6:46:04 GMT -6
Is Chris working today?
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