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Post by cozpregon on Dec 13, 2019 21:06:44 GMT -6
Sorry STG
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 13, 2019 21:08:37 GMT -6
So even tho the models keep having amped up winter storm qpf output.
I would take the European as is and cut the snow qpf in half for the entire metro.
The more juicy the qpf output is the more likely that's because of a stronger LLJ.
I haven't even looked at those wind charts but the models nutoriously Jack up the LLJ but don't warm up the lower troposphere enough.
The NAM also has a very very reliable bias towards a far to amped up LLJ.
Just look at January 13th last year.
The nam was way overdone with the LLJ and had it veered to N/S parallel to being poleward.
When the actual outcome was weaker with a small Easterly component.
This helped explode precip over SEMO and SWIL while the NAM moved our initial blast of WAA driven snow towards Northeast Missouri and West Central Illinois faster that happened.
In the end that warm air advection thump dropped 5 to 10 inches of snow for most of us.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 13, 2019 21:09:26 GMT -6
Sorry to hear that STG. 😢😢
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 13, 2019 21:12:56 GMT -6
I know there’s weather going on and I hope folks don’t mind but need to let it out. We had to put down our wonderful dog of 6 and a half years this afternoon. I knew I would be sad, but wow. We are devastated. He was just unlike any other. I’m just glad we are pregnant with our first (7 months along) because if we didn’t have that it would be even harder. Thanks for everyone’s kind words and private messages the other day when I first posted about it. It just feels like the pain won’t ever end with his loss though I know it will. I am so sorry to read this. One day at a time and it does get better...not immediately...but over time. Then when you have that beautiful baby your focus will be swallowed up. Hang in there my friend. |
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Post by snowday_lover on Dec 13, 2019 21:13:21 GMT -6
I know there’s weather going on and I hope folks don’t mind but need to let it out. We had to put down our wonderful dog of 6 and a half years this afternoon. I knew I would be sad, but wow. We are devastated. He was just unlike any other. I’m just glad we are pregnant with our first (7 months along) because if we didn’t have that it would be even harder. Thanks for everyone’s kind words and private messages the other day when I first posted about it. It just feels like the pain won’t ever end with his loss though I know it will. I’m very sorry to hear this. Prayers for you. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 13, 2019 21:23:13 GMT -6
So I just took a look at the nams 850 MB wind profile and compared it to runs going back 2 and 1/2 days at the same time.
And the nose of the low level jet on tonight's run of the NAM is about 6-10 mph stronger through Missouri ànd the warm front or wind differential where the Southerly winds veer out of the East and weaken to near nothing....
The placement on this feature is now a good 125-150 further North.
My gut tells me along and South of I70 will see 1-2" of snow in about 90 mins before the snow shield slides ENE and drops 4-8" of snow from about a Brighton Il to the N-E.
The i70/44 corridor will see 2 hours of accumulating snow before the best lift quickly races away.
Then we will have more showery precip consisting of graupel/snow especially early on under strong returns where lift and moisture push far enough upwards for ice crystal growth.
This will quickly give way to SLEET, ZR, AND RAIN.
OUR friends over the Southern 1/3rd of the veiwing area will essentially be missed by the developing snow shield and will primarily see ice, sleet, rain....
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Dec 13, 2019 21:29:12 GMT -6
I know there’s weather going on and I hope folks don’t mind but need to let it out. We had to put down our wonderful dog of 6 and a half years this afternoon. I knew I would be sad, but wow. We are devastated. He was just unlike any other. I’m just glad we are pregnant with our first (7 months along) because if we didn’t have that it would be even harder. Thanks for everyone’s kind words and private messages the other day when I first posted about it. It just feels like the pain won’t ever end with his loss though I know it will. Thoughts and prayers. It’s such a difficult time for sure. Hang in there |
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Dec 13, 2019 21:39:31 GMT -6
I just have a gut feeling I’m sitting in the ice bullseye on this one. I feel like the Missouri River is going to be the epicenter for ice.
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Post by mosue56 on Dec 13, 2019 21:41:21 GMT -6
I’d be happy with plain rain vs the freezing clear black
Ice stuff, thank you very much! Driving in it is not fun!
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weatherfan17- Denver, CO
Junior Forecaster
From Ste. Genevieve, MO currently residing in the Mile High City, Denver CO
Posts: 436
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Post by weatherfan17- Denver, CO on Dec 13, 2019 21:46:39 GMT -6
Sorry to hear this news StG, never easy to deal with. On the plus side my wife is 6 months pregnant with our little one as well. Just felt our little one kick for the first time, it really is a miracle how each of us our born and can survive inside our mothers. Now back to weather and the 00Z GFS that is currently running...
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 13, 2019 21:46:58 GMT -6
I am getting concerned for ice in metro. I wpuld ratjer be just rain
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Post by mchafin on Dec 13, 2019 21:48:49 GMT -6
I’m sorry for your loss. I still can’t hear the song Photograph by Ed Sheeran without thinking about our dog we had to have our down while we were on our way back from Seattle. I listened to it the entire plane ride.
He wouldn’t have survived long enough for us to make it home, so luckily my brother-in-law was there with him. Guinness loved him, so he wasn’t alone.
That was 3 years ago and I still tear up.
Now, let’s get some snow...sans ice.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 13, 2019 21:53:02 GMT -6
Thank you so much everyone. It really is helping me cope more than you know.
As for the weather, I hope you folks up north can cash in a bit. I think I’ll be singing in the rain down here. Maybe a little ice accretion on the limbs. We had something similar down this way a couple years back when we first moved to Perryville. It rained and was about 31 degrees and then it melted the next morning. Pretty harmless.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 13, 2019 21:58:57 GMT -6
I'm sure you lost one of your best friends STG! The good news is I can tell that you and your family were great dog owners. Although, he had a limited life, I'm sure you all gave your dog an awesome life! Hang in there.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 13, 2019 22:00:25 GMT -6
I am so sorry stg. You are in my prayers.
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Post by bororug on Dec 13, 2019 22:03:25 GMT -6
Sorry for your loss, STG.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 13, 2019 22:04:12 GMT -6
Still some WAA snow. Though the big punch of this storm is starting to look more like a sleet/freezing rain headache then drizzle (both IR and plain rain drizzle) and then backside deformation snow for the immediate metro like FRIV is pointing to somewhat. Like others have said, N of I-70 seem to be in a good position now for some noteworthy snow (3+ inches). If I were a betting man, that's what I would bet right now. Unfortunately you can't bet MET haha! Let's see if the EURO remains with the more southern/weaker solution. We got to be patient until the 12z runs tomorrow IMO though before making forecast changes/adjustments.
I hate to say this, but we are due for a good ice storm in these parts.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 13, 2019 22:12:48 GMT -6
Gfs ice storm for metro
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 13, 2019 22:13:09 GMT -6
Crap. I do not want this ice
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 13, 2019 22:21:59 GMT -6
So sorry STG...... dogs are gods gift to us! My grandma always said god spelled backwards is dog
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 13, 2019 22:40:10 GMT -6
GEM/Canadian is a solid hit for us.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 13, 2019 22:44:54 GMT -6
Hang in there STG. Sorry to hear. I always remember as a kid when we lost our first dog, my mom said “is it worth it to just not feel this and never have a dog or enjoy all those years and moments which makes it so sad at the end.” Made me think and realize the answer is always the latter.
In other news, GEM looks great and schools have 0% chance of being open Monday with timing of second wave if it plays out like that.
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Post by eurekakim on Dec 13, 2019 23:10:37 GMT -6
STG I am so sorry for the loss of your beloved furbaby. They really find a solid place in our hearts where, when they are gone, nothing can fill. But the areas around that hole help fill in and lift the pain over time. My soul dog Hunter was put to rest 8/18/08 and even 11 years later I miss him. So much. We rescued another dog not long after and she’s now 11 and I start to worry. I always say I will not get another, but the joy and peace they bring makes me a better person if that makes sense. Sending hugs and comforting thoughts.
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 13, 2019 23:16:18 GMT -6
You gave your pup a better life... and he made you a better person.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 13, 2019 23:23:29 GMT -6
Well NWS forecasted 38 for the low tonight. Many areas are between 32-35.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 13, 2019 23:28:09 GMT -6
Sorry to hear STG. Dogs are the best companions we can have. We make each other happy, it's sad that it's only for a relatively short while. You gave him a good home and sounds like you were a great dog family. I'm sure he was greatful.
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 13, 2019 23:58:41 GMT -6
Nice looking shortwave moving thru overnight.  |
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 14, 2019 0:10:39 GMT -6
Euro stays the course
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 14, 2019 0:10:41 GMT -6
Euro looks perfect
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 14, 2019 0:13:18 GMT -6
The GEFS mean and 00z euro are almost a perfect match
I think we are honing in on a solution
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