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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 19, 2019 6:44:22 GMT -6
Judah cohen tweeting about the gfs showing a very strong polar vortex into early January. If thats the case cross January off your calendars now for any real cold ..or even snow. Likely warm warm warm I agree with the strong polar vortex as i read about it as well but i dont recall the link. Idk how predictable it is, but there was a prediction that the unusually strong polar vortex would keep the cold air bottled up for much of mid winter. It made me wonder wtheck ever happened to that ssw that ppl were posting a few weeks ago.im not sure that any of this stuff is very predictable but a strong polar vortex fits well with my conceptual idea of a bookend winter. I mean, im sure things will change eventually. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 19, 2019 6:50:22 GMT -6
One thing, i know that it has been mentioned abt a return to winter around the new year. I was starting to see a pattern of fast westerlies develop so my thinking was that any hit of cold wld be transient, but,that is a long way off. I, for one, am not buying into any extreme pattern...other than an active track across the northern tier for a while. Ive seen so much waffling lately with guidance.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2019 7:06:35 GMT -6
The cold shots we have seen since Halloween have been partially the result of minor disturbances of the PV.
We don’t need a total split to get winter weather. In fact, last year we saw those type of shots can suppress everything.
I don’t know why anyone would go all in on the gfs lol.
Step back from the ledge
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Post by John G -west belleville on Dec 19, 2019 7:49:19 GMT -6
What were the indices during this last snow storm?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 19, 2019 7:58:28 GMT -6
The cold shots we have seen since Halloween have been partially the result of minor disturbances of the PV. We don’t need a total split to get winter weather. In fact, last year we saw those type of shots can suppress everything. I don’t know why anyone would go all in on the gfs lol. Step back from the ledge I agree 100%. You may need a massive PV disturbance/release to get temps below zero, but you don't need it to get into the 20's and 30's for snow/ice. In fact it normally does cause shearing out and suppression like you mentioned. The one exception, and still to me a highly anomalous situation was the "blizzard" of 2014 and subsequent brutal cold. I'm not sure we will be lucky enough to see that repeat itself in our lifetimes. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 19, 2019 8:07:11 GMT -6
The SW event that models were showing was never that impressive, IMO...nothing that would strongly disrupt the tropospheric vortex.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2019 8:56:43 GMT -6
For arguments’s sake, please see Dr. Cohen’s latest observation.
He is clearly very smart and well researched. However, he tends to try to give reaction to a lot of new model data, so it is easy to think his forecast is changing when it’s not.
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 19, 2019 8:56:55 GMT -6
I have to be honest, I haven’t had much time this year to really enjoy my amateur weather forecasting hobby. Too many things going on with the kids and work to give it the time needed.
That being said, I haven’t taken my finger off of the pulse completely. Big picture is that we are in the warm phases of the MJO and the EPO is currently positive. However, that looks to change as we progress through the end of December. Unfortunately, the NAO appears to be going weakly positive during this time as well.
What does January have in store, it’s hard to tell at this point. But, I’d bet on near normals for both temp and precipitation. There is nothing really screaming extreme in one direction or another that I see at this point.
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 19, 2019 9:01:42 GMT -6
Also, not sure how much it has to do with anything, but I could hypothesize, quite a bit, the magnetic pole is sliding further into Siberia at a quicker than normal rate according to some.
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Post by amstilost on Dec 19, 2019 9:16:18 GMT -6
Also, not sure how much it has to do with anything, but I could hypothesize, quite a bit, the magnetic pole is sliding further into Siberia at a quicker than normal rate according to some. Yes, I read an article last night about that. Fascinating stuff. Hopefully no doomsday scenarios accompany the reports as the news media gets around to reporting it. According to the article the earth has gone through this many times before without significant issues. I would love to be able to analog the weather to it though. |
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 19, 2019 10:09:41 GMT -6
Also, not sure how much it has to do with anything, but I could hypothesize, quite a bit, the magnetic pole is sliding further into Siberia at a quicker than normal rate according to some. Yes, I read an article last night about that. Fascinating stuff. Hopefully no doomsday scenarios accompany the reports as the news media gets around to reporting it. According to the article the earth has gone through this many times before without significant issues. I would love to be able to analog the weather to it though. It has been, but before our time and the use of magnetic instruments. I can only the imagine the sudden reversal of poles and what it would do to modern day technology. Tying it to the weather would be absolutely fascinating data as well. The earth and its atmosphere is such a magnificent and complex balance of energies and matter, I think it’s arrogant and irresponsible to think that we have it all figured out. |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 19, 2019 11:00:26 GMT -6
I agree , I used to think he and a few others out there had good information. The last two years or so it seems the are wrong way more than they are right. I used to follow several PV guys and sites, I basically stopped. It got very annoying seeing posts every day of a future PV split that never occurred. It’s going to be January soon it should be cold . I still follow Judah but he is far less accurate these days on his predictions.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 19, 2019 11:13:38 GMT -6
I agree. In fact id prefer not to see a pv split. We do need a weak pv to support those disturbances that weve seen lately, that can sort of provide just enough cold air to feed our mid latitude cyclones. An all out split sort of causes the patient to bleed out. A slow bleed is bettet, imo.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 19, 2019 11:43:44 GMT -6
Yes, I read an article last night about that. Fascinating stuff. Hopefully no doomsday scenarios accompany the reports as the news media gets around to reporting it. According to the article the earth has gone through this many times before without significant issues. I would love to be able to analog the weather to it though. It has been, but before our time and the use of magnetic instruments. I can only the imagine the sudden reversal of poles and what it would do to modern day technology. Tying it to the weather would be absolutely fascinating data as well. The earth and its atmosphere is such a magnificent and complex balance of energies and matter, I think it’s arrogant and irresponsible to think that we have it all figured out. my buddy took me through this theory over the summer. doomsday was certainly on his list of possibility. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 19, 2019 12:00:40 GMT -6
Snowpack is hanging tough even with full sun and temps climbing into the 40s
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 19, 2019 12:07:10 GMT -6
If not for the snow we would probably be in the 65 to 70 range
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 19, 2019 12:10:30 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 19, 2019 13:08:10 GMT -6
I agree. In fact id prefer not to see a pv split. We do need a weak pv to support those disturbances that weve seen lately, that can sort of provide just enough cold air to feed our mid latitude cyclones. An all out split sort of causes the patient to bleed out. A slow bleed is bettet, imo. An uplifting analogy... but very accurate. I think we can go back to that big dump of cold in November... it almost always leads to a milder December. It just makes sense. You bleed the patient out in November, the patient will take time to recharge. I think we have plenty of cold to come in Mid/late season. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 19, 2019 13:51:01 GMT -6
I agree. In fact id prefer not to see a pv split. We do need a weak pv to support those disturbances that weve seen lately, that can sort of provide just enough cold air to feed our mid latitude cyclones. An all out split sort of causes the patient to bleed out. A slow bleed is bettet, imo. An uplifting analogy... but very accurate. I think we can go back to that big dump of cold in November... it almost always leads to a milder December. It just makes sense. You bleed the patient out in November, the patient will take time to recharge. I think we have plenty of cold to come in Mid/late season. I agree. I think we can hold off with the embalming fluid for a few months for this old man winter. |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 19, 2019 15:32:34 GMT -6
Maybe 50-55 probably not 70...
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 19, 2019 15:47:04 GMT -6
Lol 70
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 19, 2019 17:31:58 GMT -6
So who’s ready for Independence Day.
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Post by amstilost on Dec 19, 2019 18:47:21 GMT -6
So who’s ready for Independence Day. Bring it on....I love that movie. |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 19, 2019 20:48:03 GMT -6
We had a good snow. Lets move to summer lol.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 20, 2019 6:49:14 GMT -6
Haha, if the cfs was righ in a recent run, we will all be chippi g our was out of our houses and running out of firewood in January. It is pretty remarkably cold. Cfs is a disaster model though.
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 20, 2019 9:13:08 GMT -6
12 hours between posts. Looks like back to normal lol.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 20, 2019 9:15:18 GMT -6
Euro weeklies have the cold coming back January 3rd and staying through the end of the month
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 20, 2019 9:55:12 GMT -6
Euro weeklies have the cold coming back January 3rd and staying through the end of the month The cold coming in early mid Jan looks to be brutal like early mid Nov! Hopefully we can cash in on a frontogenesis snow storm before the Arctic Blast. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 20, 2019 10:13:21 GMT -6
Definitely looks like a large-scale pattern change could be looming around the turn of the year as the deep -PNA breaks down and EPAC/WNOAM ridging develops which will dislodge the frigid air that's building across NW Canada and the Territories. Models show a split flow pattern which should be an active one...hopefully we can cash in a few times.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 20, 2019 14:30:38 GMT -6
12 hours between posts. Looks like back to normal lol. As it should be after a complex storm like the last one...lol. |
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