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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 20, 2019 16:07:31 GMT -6
Since it's slow a question. I understand the concept of the the soltace and the tilt of the earth and all that.
But when we're told winter beginner Saturday at 10:28 pm (or whatever it is) how is that calculated? At what point on the earth is ground zero for where the seasons change at that precise minute? Who does that calculation? And how was it done prior to the computer era?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 20, 2019 18:08:36 GMT -6
Calculations are done at the US Naval Observatory...and may be duplicated at other organizations...but in the US I am pretty certain the Naval Observatory handles it. The time is the exact time the sun reaches its most extreme angle (north or south for winter/summer...tropics of Capricorn/Cancer) or the time at which the sun is centered direclty over the equator (Spring/Fall).
Keep in mind the earth's tilt never changes.. it only appears too change based on it's realtive position to the sun.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 21, 2019 0:09:04 GMT -6
Looking way to the weekend after Christmas 18z looked good on the GFS as does the 0z although the low tracks further north leaving us in the warm sector.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 21, 2019 1:47:03 GMT -6
Calculations are done at the US Naval Observatory...and may be duplicated at other organizations...but in the US I am pretty certain the Naval Observatory handles it. The time is the exact time the sun reaches its most extreme angle (north or south for winter/summer...tropics of Capricorn/Cancer) or the time at which the sun is centered direclty over the equator (Spring/Fall). Keep in mind the earth's tilt never changes.. it only appears too change based on it's realtive position to the sun. Thank you sir. That would make sense since for centuries sailors used the stars for navigation. They would know where everything belongs in the sky and when. I can see how that would be handed down to the Naval Observatory |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 21, 2019 7:51:28 GMT -6
Plenty of cold rebuilding in central and western Canada but it’s likely not coming to visit until that epo changes. It’s currently strongly positive and projected to remain so...you can see the effects of that with the strong onshore flow along the NW US and Canada keeping it shoved up there.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 21, 2019 8:05:33 GMT -6
Plenty of cold rebuilding in central and western Canada but it’s likely not coming to visit until that epo changes. It’s currently strongly positive and projected to remain so...you can see the effects of that with the strong onshore flow along the NW US and Canada keeping it shoved up there. EURO was showing a strong -EPO developing after the 1st...not sure if it's still forecasting that or not but ensembles all forecast a decent ridge across W/central Canada which would dislodge at least some of that cold air. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 21, 2019 10:38:38 GMT -6
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 21, 2019 10:49:01 GMT -6
Control looks good. Pretty big interquartile range with the ensembles, but not a bad mean. Good stuff, thanks for posting it. 12z gfs spins up a big MLC next weekend and then brings the cold by 2020. |
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Post by nascarfan999 on Dec 21, 2019 13:20:36 GMT -6
I smell a spring themed t-shirt in the making...
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 21, 2019 15:39:20 GMT -6
60 degrees on Christmas Eve and Day gross.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Dec 21, 2019 20:52:49 GMT -6
60 degrees on Christmas Eve and Day gross. Weather that nice calls for a fishing trip on the Gasconade River! Though the temp looks better on Christmas day. I sure hope my wife understands! |
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Post by ElburnDave on Dec 21, 2019 21:05:25 GMT -6
60 degrees on Christmas Eve and Day gross. Weather that nice calls for a fishing trip on the Gasconade River! Though the temp looks better on Christmas day. I sure hope my wife understands! Yeah, I’m okay with it, too. I won’t get called in to plow and I plan on grilling some nice fillets on Christmas Day! Winter can take a short break. |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 21, 2019 21:17:29 GMT -6
Yes i am thankful for 65 degree weather. Perfect for a outdoor christmas which is awesome.
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Post by mchafin on Dec 21, 2019 21:47:37 GMT -6
Yes i am thankful for 65 degree weather. Perfect for a outdoor christmas which is awesome. I have no problem having a Christmas sans snow/ice falling so you can enjoy time with family. But an “outdoor Christmas” post is probably a strike. 2 more and you’re gone! |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 21, 2019 21:58:25 GMT -6
Just sayin lol
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Post by birddog on Dec 21, 2019 22:17:25 GMT -6
I was in Australia many moons ago (circa 1980-81) and went water skiing with 100° temp on Christmas day! Didn't feel much like Christmas to a guy from the Northern hemisphere, but it was fun all the same!
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 22, 2019 1:23:43 GMT -6
I'm half and half on this 60 degrees stuff. I like that folks can get around to friends and family with no worry of bad weather. But then again i love and i don't think I'm alone here, but I love snowfall on Christmas. Its like the one day out of 365 that it should snow. 😉
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 22, 2019 1:35:42 GMT -6
I would prefer Christmas to be cold and snowy, but that's not going to stop me from enjoying a warm and sunny Christmas. Current plan is to open presents then go outside and BBQ. Its also easier to accept a warm Christmas after we got a nice snow a week prior
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 22, 2019 8:41:37 GMT -6
Well it won't be 60 on Wed, probably more like 70..on Tuesday too. Records could be in the making. Kinda gross.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 22, 2019 9:45:55 GMT -6
Lets go for 80 not just 70 lol
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Post by landscaper on Dec 22, 2019 11:04:36 GMT -6
If it’s going to be warm we might as well break records. We have had a good start to winter. Two nice storms and colder than normal so far. The pattern looks to turn back to winter in early January. Plenty of winter left.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 22, 2019 11:33:24 GMT -6
Lets go for 80 not just 70 lol STOP! |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 22, 2019 12:25:29 GMT -6
Lol just enjoy it people its a nice break
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 22, 2019 13:54:13 GMT -6
Oddly enough, it looks like it will be "colder" here in Southern CA than there in STL (upper 50s on Christmas, AND with a chance of rain as well). No warmth and sun here....that looks to be you guys.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 22, 2019 14:28:21 GMT -6
Record high for December 24 is 73 set in 1889. Don't know if we'll get close to that.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 22, 2019 15:22:40 GMT -6
I’m good with it. Pretty sure I’m getting a new bbq grill for Christmas lol so perfect weather to test it out.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 22, 2019 16:05:15 GMT -6
If we hadn't already gotten two really good snow events so far this winter, I'd probably be skiffed, but I'm fine with the mild Christmas.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 22, 2019 16:08:15 GMT -6
Already celebrated with the fam bc my youngest is flying out to Boston this evening. I cld use some mild outdoorsy wx myself. But it will be muddy. Idk abt when cold wx is coming, but this is what we all like about the midwest. Nice spring like wx with a little winter sprinkled in is how i describe it. The drama that 5 in snows bring here is laughable to my work colleagues in Minneapolis. But our snows are icy. Put our snows up there and they will see why. A few days ago the gfs was suggesting alot of rain on or after Christmas. Im glad to see that Christmas stays dry.
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 22, 2019 20:52:59 GMT -6
Nice setup for frost/black ice overnight- be careful
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 23, 2019 0:36:39 GMT -6
Nice setup for frost/black ice overnight- be careful Excellent point! Lots of melting of snow piles along sidewalks and in parking lots and on side streets. Areas near the shoulders/curbs will be most vulnerable. I am back to work this morning so I will have my eyes open...or at least try to. The first day back on this shift is TERRIBLE...you have to completely re-learn tye sleep cycle again. Bring me coffee! |
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