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Post by REB on Dec 23, 2019 7:09:31 GMT -6
I'm with you on the sleep cycle Chris. Just got home from Europe and it will take at least a week. Tough during Christmas celebrations but thankful we had the opportunity. Good luck. Also thankful some of the snow stayed around to welcome us home but we didn't have to dig the car out at the airport last night!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 23, 2019 8:45:53 GMT -6
My daughter is a police officer for a city in st louis county. They work 12 hour shifts 6 to 6, alternating every 6 weeks. Its tough for her when she switches. Its worse for you and others who have to go in at 2. I heard randi n says she gets up at 2, but im guessing you have to be in by 2 which means you probably get up at 12?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 23, 2019 10:14:33 GMT -6
Geez the teleconnections are ugly...EPO keeps trending strongly positive. The effect of that is very apparent in Western Canada...the Pacific is blasting and keeping the cold bottled up. We aren't going to see much winter until that changes I'm afraid. Hope everyone enjoyed what we had so far!! History would suggest that will change at some point but we are going to be waiting a while. In the meantime enjoy the warm weather and lower utility bills!
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 23, 2019 10:51:38 GMT -6
Anyone remember this? I was 16 at the time. Man was it brutal. And I believe this was the 2nd outbreak..there was one several days earlier also. All of this followed by a record warm January.  |
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Post by mosue56 on Dec 23, 2019 11:09:35 GMT -6
Our Chris looks bright eyed and bushy tailed considering he’s had a week away and was off his sleep schedule! Good to see him at 11a!
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Post by amstilost on Dec 23, 2019 11:20:21 GMT -6
1989 was my second winter in MO after transplanting from CA. It was like a great big lit up "Welcome To Missouri" billboard that deadened the battery in my 1966 Chrysler Newport. One of the memories of driving to MO from CA was listening to a radio station somewhere on 44 and the DJ said the temp high temp made it to 89 today, the first day below 90 in some unGodly time frame. Not sure if this was the Aug '88 initial drive with the family and stuff, or the Sept. '88 drive out by myself. Either way, I was pretty sure I was leaving the boring weather of southern CA behind me.  |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 23, 2019 11:24:39 GMT -6
Anyone remember this? I was 16 at the time. Man was it brutal. And I believe this was the 2nd outbreak..there was one several days earlier also. All of this followed by a record warm January. I remember it. Got a holiday turkey from my employer and put it in the trunk of my car in the middle of the day with no fear of it thawing before I got home. Also remember Christmas 1983 -12 & -13 records for Christmas Eve and Christmas day. Brutal wind chills below -20, too. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 23, 2019 11:45:15 GMT -6
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 23, 2019 13:05:59 GMT -6
You remember that one too, yea? |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 23, 2019 13:12:07 GMT -6
Herb is taking the snow equipment off of ours
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 23, 2019 13:14:54 GMT -6
After 40 spotless days a new large sunspot is emerging from the upcoming solar cycle 25 on the sun's southern hemisphere breaking the stretch of spotless days. Several other patches are also emerging, the terminator of the new cycle has looked to pass. Now the build up to the next solar maximum can begin.
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Post by RyanD on Dec 23, 2019 13:32:20 GMT -6
I still have several inches of snow left. Feels weird going outside with snow on the ground and I could easily be wearing shorts. Feels gross outside!
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 23, 2019 13:33:47 GMT -6
You remember that one too, yea? Oh yeah. It was nuts. Lol |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 23, 2019 13:34:06 GMT -6
New indications are that the warm pattern is firmly entrenched across much of the northern hemisphere with the pattern looking to be more or less locked in until at least MLK Day possibly the 1st of February with a blowtorch looking more and more likely to start the year. Any cold shots should they occur look relatively weak and or short in duration through the next several weeks. There may also be a chance of a 2011/2012 regime taking over for the remainder of the season especially with a deep trough building over Alaska and off the East coast favoring a massive dome over the main portion of North America. While of course things could certainly change it may very well be the case that we have already blew our load and cashed in early with the rest of the season being mild with a very early start to Spring.
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Post by RyanD on Dec 23, 2019 13:39:17 GMT -6
Things still looking colder after New Year's or are the teleconnections trending positive? Wasn't the Euro just showing the EPO tanking in early Jan?
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Post by RyanD on Dec 23, 2019 13:40:17 GMT -6
New indications are that the warm pattern is firmly entrenched across much of the northern hemisphere with the pattern looking to be more or less locked in until at least MLK Day possibly the 1st of February with a blowtorch looking more and more likely to start the year. Any cold shots should they occur look relatively weak and or short in duration through the next several weeks. There may also be a chance of a 2011/2012 regime taking over for the remainder of the season especially with a deep trough building over Alaska and off the East coast favoring a massive dome over the main portion of North America. While of course things could certainly change it may very well be the case that we have already blew our load and cashed in early with the rest of the season being mild with a very early start to Spring. Lol, and in 2 days you'll say just the opposite! |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 23, 2019 13:40:22 GMT -6
Well winter was fun while it lasted. Started about halloween. Spring for jan and feb, then summer by march sounds about right
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 23, 2019 13:43:26 GMT -6
There it is
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 23, 2019 13:54:30 GMT -6
I'll agree that the trough of the Alaska coast is bad news. That definitely has to stop and there's really no sign of that over the next 7-10 days. But I'm not exactly ready to write off the next two months yet or call it a repeat of 2012 lol.
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on Dec 23, 2019 14:14:46 GMT -6
We still have quit a bit of snow on the ground, but will put a good dent in it today. Should be gone by tomorrow, except for all the huge piles.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 23, 2019 15:30:38 GMT -6
Beautiful today. Enjoy the 70* temps Wed...I think we could surpass the record on Christmas Day (depending on how many high clouds)! Jan is still on track to bring some extreme cold.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 23, 2019 18:02:03 GMT -6
My daughter is a police officer for a city in st louis county. They work 12 hour shifts 6 to 6, alternating every 6 weeks. Its tough for her when she switches. Its worse for you and others who have to go in at 2. I heard randi n says she gets up at 2, but im guessing you have to be in by 2 which means you probably get up at 12? 1230am. |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Dec 23, 2019 19:05:22 GMT -6
Anyone remember this? I was 16 at the time. Man was it brutal. And I believe this was the 2nd outbreak..there was one several days earlier also. All of this followed by a record warm January. Yep... that was back when we had winters! |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 23, 2019 19:34:52 GMT -6
Anyone remember this? I was 16 at the time. Man was it brutal. And I believe this was the 2nd outbreak..there was one several days earlier also. All of this followed by a record warm January. Yep... that was back when we had winters! well, the rest of that winter was basically nothing I think |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 24, 2019 1:06:14 GMT -6
I don't think it is terribly scientific, but I ran a composite of the years of the top 5 warmest Christmas days... to see what the following January-February period was...on average...and it turns out that the composite outcome shows above normal temps the rest of the winter followed the near record Christmas Day.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 24, 2019 1:54:39 GMT -6
I don't think it is terribly scientific, but I ran a composite of the years of the top 5 warmest Christmas days... to see what the following January-February period was...on average...and it turns out that the composite outcome shows above normal temps the rest of the winter followed the near record Christmas Day. Yuck! Lol |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 24, 2019 5:32:59 GMT -6
So... I did the same thing with somewhat different data casting a wider net. I went back and grabbed the years where the temperature reached 65 or greater in the last week of December...to see what the following Jan and Feb looked like. There appears to be a somewhat greater signal in this data...with colder than normal temperatures from the central US to the north.  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 24, 2019 5:57:23 GMT -6
As for the precip compsites... They are fairly neutral across the country for those same years...with no strong signals...except in the Pacific Northwest (dry) down to northern California...and slightly dry from Texas to Tennessee.  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 24, 2019 6:14:53 GMT -6
In case you are wondering... the years with 65+ in late the last week of December are....
1931
1933
1936
1942
1946
1951
1954
1955
1965
1971
1982
1984
1992
2002
2004
2008
2016
So I went back and checked the January and February charts for the following year...which resulted in the above maps.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 24, 2019 8:26:55 GMT -6
Quite a spread of temperatures when I got up this morning. 29 at Spirit and 43 at Lambert.
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