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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 29, 2019 16:31:33 GMT -6
Low-topped mini supercell N/NW of Hardin has a definite mesocyclone...fairly weak and broad but persistent last few frames. We're lucky we didn't get more sunshine today or things would have gotten interesting.
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Post by mosue56 on Dec 29, 2019 17:13:27 GMT -6
There’s snow in Kansas winding around! Will it come here? Hmmm!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 29, 2019 17:14:05 GMT -6
Storm near Batchtown showing quite a bit of rotation as well...
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 29, 2019 18:21:45 GMT -6
Pouring rain for awhile now
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 29, 2019 19:14:25 GMT -6
While chesterfield has a,south wind, places just to our west and north like Washington and troy have a west wind. Guessing these gusty winds are the passage of the cold front. Im still not sure i can rule out sloppy flakes over night early morning for places like troy, mo.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 29, 2019 19:34:49 GMT -6
Very strong winds right now. Rind is fully sideways and the wind is very strong out if the wind!
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 29, 2019 20:01:13 GMT -6
Very strong winds right now. Rind is fully sideways and the wind is very strong out if the wind!  |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 29, 2019 20:05:15 GMT -6
Lord sorry. Rain is sideways and wind is very strong out of the west
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 29, 2019 20:52:05 GMT -6
I have slushy snowflakes falling. Someone please comfirm in st.peters or.ofallon area
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 29, 2019 21:00:49 GMT -6
I have a video of the flakes how do i post it
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 30, 2019 1:59:15 GMT -6
Getting some wind blownflurries in Chesterfield as I head to work.
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Post by birddog on Dec 30, 2019 7:28:45 GMT -6
1.30" total rainfall IMBY.
On a lighter note Chris, did somebody forget to turn off the microphones on the set while you were doing the weather around 7:10? I seen you give somebody the LOOK!
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 328 
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Post by bob on Dec 30, 2019 9:03:50 GMT -6
So when do you think our next snow chance is?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 30, 2019 9:17:00 GMT -6
So when do you think our next snow chance is? 2020 |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 30, 2019 9:41:35 GMT -6
To my untrained eyeballs it looks like next week gets cold for a couple of days then right back to a ridge and warmth over the central and eastern US.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 30, 2019 9:49:40 GMT -6
I know I sound like a broken record but we really, really need to see that EPO go negative or at least down near neutral. The forecasts have looked better the last couple days. The effect of the onshore flow into western Canada is still apparent, but shows signs of weakening. We just need to keep that trend up, otherwise that nice dome of cold will just sit there with only an occasional glancing blow affecting us.
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 30, 2019 11:23:20 GMT -6
Had some grauple on the back deck this morning. Damn wind tore off my cover over the salt bin also. Thank goodness it was done raining already.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 30, 2019 11:30:07 GMT -6
I’d keep an eye on the system this weekend. GFS ensembles are showing the possibility of accumulating backside snow around here
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 30, 2019 11:31:24 GMT -6
I’d keep an eye on the system this weekend. GFS ensembles are showing the possibility of accumulating backside snow around here I noticed models were trying hard to wrap up some secondary energy this weekend...might be tough to get anything going but worth watching. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 30, 2019 12:54:50 GMT -6
Early next week has my attention. It will probably be too far north, but if the energy gets tucked back, then you have your overrunning event.
At least it feels like winter again.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 30, 2019 13:56:49 GMT -6
It'll feel like winter for about 2 days. The eps and GEFS are similar showing nice toasty 850's and a ridge building back after the 2 days. It's not even January yet, and it's looking rather bleak for the month.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 30, 2019 14:23:30 GMT -6
It'll feel like winter for about 2 days. The eps and GEFS are similar showing nice toasty 850's and a ridge building back after the 2 days. It's not even January yet, and it's looking rather bleak for the month. The 00z eps was much more average with things. This could be a blip. EPO forecast is just trash right now from the model. It can’t seem to figure it out |
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 30, 2019 15:36:04 GMT -6
I know I sound like a broken record but we really, really need to see that EPO go negative or at least down near neutral. The forecasts have looked better the last couple days. The effect of the onshore flow into western Canada is still apparent, but shows signs of weakening. We just need to keep that trend up, otherwise that nice dome of cold will just sit there with only an occasional glancing blow affecting us. All of the teleconnections scream normal to slightly above temps when taken together. MJO isn’t helping either. That means snow will come in the form of backside potential and then likely gone in 48-96 hours. It’s gonna take another week or two to get out of this pattern. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 30, 2019 17:32:52 GMT -6
Also, the cold in Canada is at least close enough for storms to tap. Since the seasonal trend is secondary development, I think we will be fine.
This is not a doomsday setup
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 30, 2019 18:10:31 GMT -6
I have to agree with others on here about this not being a doomsday setup. BUT, and theres always a but...most likely scenario is that we get alot of close calls for a while. I think we will get alot of dodged bullets and we may very well get alot of rain. Now, overall, we are still in a good situation for slightly above normal snow. I think most of that will come in late feb and march. The kind of concrete that we love to shovel and the kind that melts in a day or two. I still like my 20 inch number. Its going to be a decent winter. We just have to wait for it, but in due time it will be here. Think 1993 on a slightly smaller scale.
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 30, 2019 18:11:34 GMT -6
Also, the cold in Canada is at least close enough for storms to tap. Since the seasonal trend is secondary development, I think we will be fine. This is not a doomsday setup Nah, it really isn’t, but I like building snowpacks. This pattern is not the one to do it in. It’s a 6-9 backside incher pattern that is gone within a few days. |
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Post by bear1 on Dec 30, 2019 18:12:18 GMT -6
Annnnd, I'm seeing snow flurries now?? Where'd they come from?
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 30, 2019 18:16:11 GMT -6
Annnnd, I'm seeing snow flurries now?? Where'd they come from? Im guessing they are falling from the sky? |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 30, 2019 18:32:16 GMT -6
Light snow now
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 30, 2019 18:50:45 GMT -6
Also, the cold in Canada is at least close enough for storms to tap. Since the seasonal trend is secondary development, I think we will be fine. This is not a doomsday setup Nah, it really isn’t, but I like building snowpacks. This pattern is not the one to do it in. It’s a 6-9 backside incher pattern that is gone within a few days. Snow packs are for Milwaukee. Throw me several storms to track and at least a couple that drop several inches and I’m happy. It’s just been dreadfully boring for a while now. Like to have something to follow |
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