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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 31, 2019 19:09:54 GMT -6
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 31, 2019 21:43:54 GMT -6
Proud moment for me. just finished the last run of 2019. Pushed out 643 miles since June. 720 including the pre-injury January miles. Definitely hard in the beginning following recovery but I'm back to form it seems. Glad to be up and at em again! Have a Happy New Year everyone! Congrats! I also hit some fitness goals - benching, squatting, and deadlift all got personal records - one just yesterday for deadlift! Nice work! Me too. I practiced fitness whole cupcake in my mouth. |
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on Dec 31, 2019 22:23:14 GMT -6
Happy Happy New Year to Chris and the Corner Crew......hey, that sounds like a Band.
Saying it now, because at midnight, I’ll be outside making some noise, as most Pyro’s do, this time of year.
Hey Weatherwatcher, keep your ears open, you should hear them out there....lol
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 1, 2020 0:02:59 GMT -6
Happy Happy New Year to Chris and the Corner Crew......hey, that sounds like a Band. Saying it now, because at midnight, I’ll be outside making some noise, as most Pyro’s do, this time of year. Hey Weatherwatcher, keep your ears open, you should hear them out there....lol I head them good sir! Happy New Year! |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 1, 2020 2:06:17 GMT -6
Happy New Year everyone!! Ugh last day of a 12 day vacation. At least its a very short week.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 1, 2020 9:50:42 GMT -6
Happy new year everyone. Due to.deep southwest flow I am going with 61 today for the high however looks like weather may soon get fun over the course of the week. Have a great day. Current temp 44
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 1, 2020 10:42:12 GMT -6
The secondary development Friday night has my attention. Models seems to be trending more aggressive with it. Here’s what the 06z euro had:  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 1, 2020 10:57:39 GMT -6
The secondary development Friday night has my attention. Models seems to be trending more aggressive with it. Here’s what the 06z euro had: Certainly more aggressive than any of the other models, but it is the one you want on your team. Also, 12z ggem has the early week storm. Gfs is a dud |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 1, 2020 11:24:19 GMT -6
It's 2020 I want my flying Jetson's car.
But I'll settle for 4 inches of snow Friday night
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Post by landscaper on Jan 1, 2020 11:35:48 GMT -6
There’s not one another model that even shows a dusting. The cold next week looks much weaker now. The models have done a terrible job in the 7-14 day range. They seem to over do the cold only to back off the closer you get to it. We keep getting fantasy storms in the 7-14 day range. Hopefully we can catch one of the cold pushes and get something wintry here. It would be awesome to get some light snow Friday night.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 1, 2020 12:18:41 GMT -6
lol, 12 z euro has zero snow friday night. Color me shocked
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 1, 2020 12:24:23 GMT -6
I jinxed it by posting that snow map
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 1, 2020 12:29:35 GMT -6
12z euro still has the early week storm.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 1, 2020 12:31:29 GMT -6
and it's going weaker and south with next week. Lol
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Post by landscaper on Jan 1, 2020 12:34:26 GMT -6
It’s definitely not the model it used to be.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 1, 2020 12:35:38 GMT -6
It’s definitely not the model it used to be. It’s literally better lol. We just posted the verification scores. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 1, 2020 12:35:55 GMT -6
With the colder air trending east next week,so will the storm..
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Post by landscaper on Jan 1, 2020 13:04:46 GMT -6
It has do not done well in the last few years, it had 1-4” night when no other model had hardly anything. Then it showed a heavy snow for next week when most models and ensembles showed very little. There was a time when the euro would lock into a storm 7 days out and nail it, now, it flips and flops almost as much as the GFS. The other models are even worse.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 1, 2020 13:17:29 GMT -6
It has do not done well in the last few years, it had 1-4” night when no other model had hardly anything. Then it showed a heavy snow for next week when most models and ensembles showed very little. There was a time when the euro would lock into a storm 7 days out and nail it, now, it flips and flops almost as much as the GFS. The other models are even worse. That’s just not true. Sure, it nailed Sandy pretty far out, but in general models have always moved around beyond day 5. As far as Friday night, it has been more aggressive with the phase. I think the difference in snow amounts is extreme, while the physical mechanisms being modeled are subtle making it appear wildly different. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 1, 2020 13:56:34 GMT -6
Whatever...
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 1, 2020 15:50:37 GMT -6
The problem when the general public looks at model performance... most are looking at the absolute SENSIBLE weather in their backyard...the micro-scale. The reality is that you have to look big picture patterns...are the models getting the big picture more right than wrong? That is the kind of verification you look for in the mdeium and long range. The fact is that short range forecasts have improved to the point that we are now using the same criteria to judge mid/long range forecasts that was once only applied to shorter ranges. Looking back at both of our winter weather events...Im pretty sure there were few if any hints of possible activity until we got inside 6 or 7 days...and this last one wasnt "locked in" as an event until maybe 3 days out. That's because so many these things are deiven by shortwaves...not long waves. You have to get the big pattern right before you can have any hope of tracking the shoetwaves moving through that pattern.
Waiting in tye LOOOONG line at the aquarium... very excited to see this place!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 1, 2020 16:18:46 GMT -6
The problem when the general public looks at model performance... most are looking at the absolute SENSIBLE weather in their backyard...the micro-scale. The reality is that you have to look big picture patterns...are the models getting the big picture more right than wrong? That is the kind of verification you look for in the mdeium and long range. The fact is that short range forecasts have improved to the point that we are now using the same criteria to judge mid/long range forecasts that was once only applied to shorter ranges. Looking back at both of our winter weather events...Im pretty sure there were few if any hints of possible activity until we got inside 6 or 7 days...and this last one wasnt "locked in" as an event until maybe 3 days out. That's because so many these things are deiven by shortwaves...not long waves. You have to get the big pattern right before you can have any hope of tracking the shoetwaves moving through that pattern. Waiting in tye LOOOONG line at the aquarium... very excited to see this place! Silly question for you, fearless leader. When you are in a public place with a crowd of people standing in line like that as people recognize you do they ask you about when we're going to get snow, or is it going to get cold or that sort of thing? Or do they say something like "Hey Chris! We enjoy watching you!" Or do they pretty much leave you alone to be with your family. |
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 392 
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Post by twocat on Jan 1, 2020 19:28:46 GMT -6
The problem when the general public looks at model performance... most are looking at the absolute SENSIBLE weather in their backyard...the micro-scale. The reality is that you have to look big picture patterns...are the models getting the big picture more right than wrong? That is the kind of verification you look for in the mdeium and long range. The fact is that short range forecasts have improved to the point that we are now using the same criteria to judge mid/long range forecasts that was once only applied to shorter ranges. Looking back at both of our winter weather events...Im pretty sure there were few if any hints of possible activity until we got inside 6 or 7 days...and this last one wasnt "locked in" as an event until maybe 3 days out. That's because so many these things are deiven by shortwaves...not long waves. You have to get the big pattern right before you can have any hope of tracking the shoetwaves moving through that pattern. Waiting in tye LOOOONG line at the aquarium... very excited to see this place! We were also there today with the kids and the grandkid. The lines were WAY too long for us. We thought we were being smart and we all bought annual passes, but apparently that was not the case. The pass holder line was awful. We will try again on a weekday. Union Station looks fantastic! |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 1, 2020 20:45:10 GMT -6
So...of the countless posts I saw about the Aquarium, not a single one said, "be sure to buy your tickets ahead of time!" So when we went to go check it out, we found out it was sold out. Sold out? Shedd Aquarium doesn't sell out. The Aquarium in Charleston doesn't sell out. Not impressed, and I haven't even been there yet.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 1, 2020 20:50:10 GMT -6
Aside from the ticket issues/lines, how is it? I’ve heard mixed reviews. Having been to both the Shedd and the Charleston, SC aquarium, I’m having to temper my expectations as I know it’s nowhere near that. But I’m hoping it is at least decent.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 1, 2020 21:03:28 GMT -6
Yeah I heard it only takes like 45 minutes to go thru..hmmm
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 1, 2020 21:35:15 GMT -6
So...of the countless posts I saw about the Aquarium, not a single one said, "be sure to buy your tickets ahead of time!" So when we went to go check it out, we found out it was sold out. Sold out? Shedd Aquarium doesn't sell out. The Aquarium in Charleston doesn't sell out. Not impressed, and I haven't even been there yet. Fox 2 was saying “get your tickets early.“ But they were saying it right after Thanksgiving so I don't think a lot of people had their plans for this past week firmeed up at that point. My wife and her cousin from out of town were planning on going last Monday. But the only tickets left when they were ready to buy them were at like 7 pm and they didn't want to go that late. And Snowman is correct - I've heard no feedback about the aquarium one way or another. Strange since it's been open for a week. Are people required to sign non-disclosure agreements or something? |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 1, 2020 22:03:04 GMT -6
So...of the countless posts I saw about the Aquarium, not a single one said, "be sure to buy your tickets ahead of time!" So when we went to go check it out, we found out it was sold out. Sold out? Shedd Aquarium doesn't sell out. The Aquarium in Charleston doesn't sell out. Not impressed, and I haven't even been there yet. Fox 2 was saying “get your tickets early.“ But they were saying it right after Thanksgiving so I don't think a lot of people had their plans for this past week firmeed up at that point. My wife and her cousin from out of town were planning on going last Monday. But the only tickets left when they were ready to buy them were at like 7 pm and they didn't want to go that late. And Snowman is correct - I've heard no feedback about the aquarium one way or another. Strange since it's been open for a week. Are people required to sign non-disclosure agreements or something? I don’t really watch the news...weather only, so didn’t know about the warning. As for the actual aquarium- I’ve heard it’s cool. It’s NOT Shedd. So my expectations are properly set. A lot of my friends have gone with their families, and I’m not hearing any complaints. I’m thankful they finally did something with Union Station. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 1, 2020 22:17:47 GMT -6
00z Icon has a storm early next week. 00z gfs still has nothing.
Let’s see if it exists on the rest of the model suite
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 1, 2020 22:19:04 GMT -6
Just go and appreciate it
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