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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 5, 2020 12:31:47 GMT -6
12z euro faster and sheared out.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 5, 2020 12:33:12 GMT -6
Euro warm and wet, very similar to the GEM. The operational GFS is the only model showing any cold air . Both the GEFS and EPS are too warm for frozen precipitation. I think we will have to wait till after the 15-20th time frame for any meaningful winter weather. It’s unfortunate there’s no cold air to work with, there is a beautiful parade of storms coming in the next 2-3 weeks.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 5, 2020 12:34:32 GMT -6
12z euro faster and sheared out. Does generate some snow but it’s messy looking |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 5, 2020 12:48:12 GMT -6
If only these storms were coming in January, darn.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 5, 2020 12:57:20 GMT -6
If nothing else this pattern looks good for some cold season Dixie Alley severe outbreaks
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 5, 2020 12:58:09 GMT -6
Oh wow. Not looking at specifics this far out, but the pattern is setting up for a trend to a more active pattern. We will be singing. With this pattern it could set the table for this spring. I know its early to be talking about spring, so emphasis is on "setting the table" at this point. Februarys tend to be a bit quieter on a national scale. I hope that is the case this year with a very active pattern developing over the next 3 to 4 weeks.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 5, 2020 13:16:25 GMT -6
Models just want to keep building and re expanding the ridge over the eastern half or so of the country. The west is cold and stormy, we stay mild and likely pretty wet. This is far from a drought pattern and pretty dismal for snow as well.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 5, 2020 13:26:36 GMT -6
Models just want to keep building and re expanding the ridge over the eastern half or so of the country. The west is cold and stormy, we stay mild and likely pretty wet. This is far from a drought pattern and pretty dismal for snow as well. Until that negative PNA breaks down that SE ridge isn’t going anywhere. It looks pretty locked in until late in the month |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 5, 2020 13:29:29 GMT -6
Euro does have the beginnings of the classic ice storm setup at day 10 and actually does bring the cold down. Hopefully it’s not another tease. The epo just needs to get close to neutral or slightly negative and it’s game on. Models show this happening as well.
The depth and expanse of cold at the border and into Canada is incredible. Everyone relax, it’s coming.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 5, 2020 14:36:03 GMT -6
Euro does have the beginnings of the classic ice storm setup at day 10 and actually does bring the cold down. Hopefully it’s not another tease. The epo just needs to get close to neutral or slightly negative and it’s game on. Models show this happening as well. The depth and expanse of cold at the border and into Canada is incredible. Everyone relax, it’s coming. There have been many years where Canada is an icebox and we stay mild. There have also been many day 8 or 10 ice storm setups already this year with no dice..or ice. Totally agree snowstorm, we are doomed for a few morw weeks probably. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 5, 2020 14:41:33 GMT -6
I predict 1 more inch thr rest of winter, with still droughty to me. But we will see. I think core rain will be ohio valley. Lets just watch
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 5, 2020 14:50:41 GMT -6
EPS and GEFS both look soggy over the next 7 days and mostly from that potential storm later this week.
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Post by Sparkman - Wildwood, Mo on Jan 5, 2020 14:53:46 GMT -6
I predict 1 more inch thr rest of winter, with still droughty to me. But we will see. I think core rain will be ohio valley. Lets just watch Dude. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 5, 2020 15:45:58 GMT -6
Mustve timed it rt. Abt 1030 this morning winds came up and i thght i wasnt going to be able to gwt my lights down. But then the winds subsided so i was able to get them down and now the winds are really blowing. Thankful for nice temps to get this done. If it were a little less windy i cld hv a bonfire with my tree but that isnt happening. With the rains next weekend, not happening then either.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 5, 2020 16:00:48 GMT -6
There is a tremendous amount of cold air in Canada and the models do show a good ice storm setup towards day 10. I think that potential storm will transition the region back to real winter
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 5, 2020 16:09:48 GMT -6
Also, here comes the 18z gfs with a lot of rain followed by ice and snow Friday-Saturday lol.
That drought forecast though
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 5, 2020 16:10:36 GMT -6
What’s day 10???
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 5, 2020 16:14:52 GMT -6
10 days from now. January 15th |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 5, 2020 16:37:20 GMT -6
Also, here comes the 18z gfs with a lot of rain followed by ice and snow Friday-Saturday lol. That drought forecast though The system this weekend will have a ton of moisture to work with if the models are right. Just need it to not get sheared before it can develop some |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 5, 2020 16:49:19 GMT -6
Also, here comes the 18z gfs with a lot of rain followed by ice and snow Friday-Saturday lol. That drought forecast though The system this weekend will have a ton of moisture to work with if the models are right. Just need it to not get sheared before it can develop some The 18z GFS looks realistic for that storm. It will be interesting to see if it can beat the GEM/Euro. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 5, 2020 16:54:07 GMT -6
The system this weekend will have a ton of moisture to work with if the models are right. Just need it to not get sheared before it can develop some The 18z GFS looks realistic for that storm. It will be interesting to see if it can beat the GEM/Euro. The euro really isn’t that different, while the ggem is slower and more developed. I think it’s worth watching, but rain will definitely be a prominent precipitation type in STL. The 10th-20th is going to be more interesting than a lot on this board are giving it credit for. Gfs even has Barney entering the region by mid month. Have to love those deep purples and pinks on the maps |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 5, 2020 17:01:12 GMT -6
The 18z GFS looks realistic for that storm. It will be interesting to see if it can beat the GEM/Euro. The euro really isn’t that different, while the ggem is slower and more developed. I think it’s worth watching, but rain will definitely be a prominent precipitation type in STL. The 10th-20th is going to be more interesting than a lot on this board are giving it credit for. Gfs even has Barney entering the region by mid month. Have to love those deep purples and pinks on the maps Good to know, I didn't even look at the Euro or GEM! I just listen to you or snowstorm. So, the GEM is alone 5-6 days out. Like you mentioned, pattern will start becoming interesting soon. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 5, 2020 20:39:31 GMT -6
I was just thinking in my head about a world where we didn't have the Rockies... how much would that change storms/weather patterns given the current influence of lee cyclogenesis?
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 5, 2020 21:07:21 GMT -6
or the Pacific Ocean
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 5, 2020 21:13:51 GMT -6
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 5, 2020 22:08:34 GMT -6
00z gfs is looking interesting...dare I say wintry by Friday night
Yeah, this is a great run. If things come together right there will be waves of rain followed by ice and topped off with several inches of snow.
Lots of QPF to work with, so it’s all about having it overlap the cold air
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 5, 2020 22:15:30 GMT -6
That’s a beefy GFS run
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 5, 2020 22:17:02 GMT -6
Hmmm. Yea that’s quite a storm on the gfs. We have our baby birthing class in Festus Saturday morning so that would make sense haha.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 5, 2020 22:20:59 GMT -6
The GFS shows a good tap of moisture. Round 1 will almost certainly be rain, but round 2 looks like there may be some potential there for frozen.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 5, 2020 22:23:38 GMT -6
HAHA, never gonna happen. Probably.  |
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