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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2020 10:14:28 GMT -6
12z GFS looks similar to the euro last night. Predominantly rain with the WAA then a switch to ice and snow as the big upper low ejects and starts to wind up If that thing can bomb out a bit, we are all in business |
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 6, 2020 10:15:31 GMT -6
Haha Tilawn!!!! But I’m serious!
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 6, 2020 10:24:14 GMT -6
Wet to few flakes to cold. 90% chance that covers it. Sig ice and or snow columbia to quincy on north.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2020 10:24:42 GMT -6
12z gfs also still looks locked and loaded after the weekend storm.
Good stuff!
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 6, 2020 10:30:43 GMT -6
That run gives the airport about 2" of precipitation through 120 hours. More to the south and less to the north.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 6, 2020 10:40:53 GMT -6
Certainly looks like a lot of rain...we will see how much cold can get involved. Jury is still out but there's a good bit of potential there.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 6, 2020 10:44:27 GMT -6
12z GFS looks similar to the euro last night. Predominantly rain with the WAA then a switch to ice and snow as the big upper low ejects and starts to wind up If that thing can bomb out a bit, we are all in business Euro and GFS have the trough taking on a negative tilt as it ejects which would signify strengthening but the wave is also getting sheared out as it moves East. Interesting setup with some potential. Probably not a big storm but the ice threat looks legit |
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 6, 2020 11:00:42 GMT -6
Ice doesn’t need to be big to be nasty! Yuck!
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 6, 2020 11:15:13 GMT -6
gem seems to be the strongest with the final wave wrapping up a pretty healthy trowal following a hose of gom/pac moisture.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 6, 2020 11:15:48 GMT -6
Gem is a big storm , mostly rain for St. Louis. The heavy snow and ice is Columbia to Quincy and north
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 6, 2020 11:16:20 GMT -6
Gem looks good..rain to cold here.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 6, 2020 11:16:24 GMT -6
nice negative tilt at H5 on canada too
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Post by landscaper on Jan 6, 2020 11:16:34 GMT -6
We need a slightly weaker storm with a little more cold air to be in business in the metro area
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 6, 2020 11:25:46 GMT -6
Need to watch out for severe weather on the warm side of this thing. Looks to be the classic winter tornado outbreak somewhere in the TN, MS and LA region.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 6, 2020 11:29:27 GMT -6
Need to watch out for severe weather on the warm side of this thing. Looks to be the classic winter tornado outbreak somewhere in the TN, MS and LA region. Yep SPC already has a 30% risk area defined for Day 5 around Texarkana |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 6, 2020 11:44:41 GMT -6
Yea, these things hardly come back south on the models. 99 may get this one right.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 6, 2020 12:01:44 GMT -6
Yea, these things hardly come back south on the models. 99 may get this one right. Gonna be hard for a secondary low to shift substantially north with a 1030mb+ high sitting across the Dakotas and MN as it ejects. That arctic air should be able to undercut the precip shield...looks like a prime setup for icing to snow to me. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 6, 2020 12:25:15 GMT -6
Euro is really wrapping this thing up. Could be an interesting run
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 6, 2020 12:26:15 GMT -6
GEFS is well north with any snow,..
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 6, 2020 12:28:21 GMT -6
This is starting to look like a powerhouse storm...one where we will end up in the warmish sector.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 6, 2020 12:30:53 GMT -6
Euro brings a significant backside snow to the area. Significant icing for parts of the area to
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 6, 2020 12:35:17 GMT -6
This is starting to look like a powerhouse storm...one where we will end up in the warmish sector. Very possible, but the upper level energy is digging into northern Mexico before it ejects so I don’t see this going to far north. If we can time the strengthening right (see euro) it could be a pretty impactful system. There’s plenty of cold on standby to our NW |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 6, 2020 12:39:44 GMT -6
The further south and East you are the least likely chance of winter the further north and west the better you will be imo
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Post by dschreib on Jan 6, 2020 12:42:20 GMT -6
Hmmm. Yea that’s quite a storm on the gfs. We have our baby birthing class in Festus Saturday morning so that would make sense haha. Just tell her to sh** on the bed; and if she doesn't want the epidural, you take it. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 6, 2020 12:43:13 GMT -6
It shows 4" of precipitation at the airport for that storm.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 6, 2020 12:43:24 GMT -6
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 6, 2020 12:47:13 GMT -6
That's 54 continuous hours of precipitation on that run.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 6, 2020 12:47:40 GMT -6
Brings deepening 700 low right over the metro.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 6, 2020 12:47:48 GMT -6
That run makes me smile...
Almost feel bad for Indiana if it happened though
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 6, 2020 12:50:42 GMT -6
Even the GFS... if the 500 energy uncuts us- we will see more wintry precip than it is showing
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