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Post by bdgwx on Jan 6, 2020 12:56:19 GMT -6
Need to watch out for severe weather on the warm side of this thing. Looks to be the classic winter tornado outbreak somewhere in the TN, MS and LA region. Yep SPC already has a 30% risk area defined for Day 5 around Texarkana There's a lot of cape and shear on that 12Z Euro run down there. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 6, 2020 13:23:29 GMT -6
Well ok. I guess flooding will certainly be an issue. Great
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 6, 2020 13:43:17 GMT -6
Lots of drought causing precip coming.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 6, 2020 13:43:48 GMT -6
Yeah yeah yeah whatever lol
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 6, 2020 14:15:02 GMT -6
NWS has a graphic on FB showing a 100% chance of more than 1 inch of rain Thursday through Saturday.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 6, 2020 14:28:00 GMT -6
Witty drought comments will be the norm over the next 144 hours. Personally, I can’t wait for the hydrology products to be posted. Especially the River Drought forecasts.
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Post by grizzlebeard on Jan 6, 2020 14:29:02 GMT -6
1. Someone notices the possibility of a potent storm moving thru the area in 7-10 days. 2. 3-4 days are spent pointing out that off-hour runs are stupid and useless and throwing out any model that doesn't appear to confirm accumulating snow along the I-70 and I-44 corridor. 3. 2-3 days are spent trying to determine what the heck the I-44 and I-70 corridor actually means. 4. During the same period, every registered user askes the handful of posters who actually understand the models how much snow will fall at their nearest cross-street - and they ask 6-10 times after each model run. 5. System will be compared to every big snow event in the last 28 years (I don't think anyone every compares to an event before THE BLIZZARD OF '82 (note all caps)). 6. As the system approaches, people who may (or may not) know what they are talking about post accumulation maps. 7. Each registered user bemoans the fact that the system is missing them by 50 miles. 8. System actually comes on shore, completely throwing all models into chaos. (This is also when terms like "nowcasting" begin to be used and "discos" from other NWS offices begin to show up regularly.) 9. Users again frantically try to determine how much will fall at their cross street. 10. System hits Texas and Oklahoma. Every user gives up hope of seeing any snow at all (24 hours earlier, the models indicated 6-8 inches at their cross-street.) 11. Users try not to use off-color language to indicate their frustration with not getting any snow at all. 12. 95% of users watch in horror as 5% of users begin to post photos of snow actually falling on one of the requested cross-streets. (Does any of the other old timers miss the pictures of Rosie's feet??) 13. System pjazzes to the North/South/East/West and bombs out on someone else. Postings cease. Newbies are addicted...... 14. New system shows up - See #1. Read more: morethanweatherstl.com/thread/3/idiots-guide#ixzz6AHgd0qcb |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 6, 2020 14:32:21 GMT -6
On that note, immma pjazzle on outta here.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 6, 2020 14:35:27 GMT -6
I wish the DGEX was still a thing. I miss its wildly unrealistic snow bombs.
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jan 6, 2020 14:37:59 GMT -6
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jan 6, 2020 14:38:37 GMT -6
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 6, 2020 14:39:40 GMT -6
Witty drought comments will be the norm over the next 144 hours. Personally, I can’t wait for the hydrology products to be posted. Especially the River Drought forecasts. Do you think LSX will need to deploy Dust Storm Warnings for this event? |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 6, 2020 14:45:16 GMT -6
Ok... ok... i think he gets it...lol.
Definitely a period of interest heading into the weekend.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 6, 2020 14:51:45 GMT -6
Ok... ok... i think he gets it...lol. Definitely a period of interest heading into the weekend. It's just dry humor. |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 6, 2020 14:54:58 GMT -6
Bullying isn't very nice.
But neither is river drought.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 6, 2020 15:15:40 GMT -6
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Post by scmhack on Jan 6, 2020 15:18:25 GMT -6
Did MJ get some dust in his eye? |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 6, 2020 15:33:11 GMT -6
Euro ensembles and GFS ensembles seem to be quite a bit north with any snow, Like Iowa and far Northern MO north.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 6, 2020 15:40:58 GMT -6
Euro ensembles and GFS ensembles seem to be quite a bit north with any snow, Like Iowa and far Northern MO north. Looks like the snow that far north is coming predominantly from the WAA precep. That will be mostly rain here. When the upper energy ejects is when our chance of wintry weather will happen |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 6, 2020 15:49:49 GMT -6
I'd say we are more likely to be in play for thunderstorms than ice/snow at this point. To me this is the classic strong storm that pulls further north the closer we get. Today's runs and analyses took my thinking 180 degrees.
Good news is the EPO has been showing going neutral then negative for like 5 straight days now so that's a start.
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 6, 2020 15:51:20 GMT -6
I would just like to give the middle finger to all that rain on our way. Now I feel better. Thank you.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 6, 2020 16:07:09 GMT -6
Disco snippet :
The GEFS MSLP maps show a more clear movement of the nearly stalled
front by Friday night and continuing into Saturday as a wave of low
pressure tracks into the Lower Ohio Valley and the main upper level
storm system ejects from the Plains and tracks through our region.
This should allow colder air to filter in at the low levels, but the
colder air does not look unusually cold either. The GEFS has a
clear preference at this time for a more open wave, and
precipitation should largely shut off before the air becomes cold
enough to switch rain over to snow. Other models have shown a bit
more preference for a closed LOW to try to develop as the system
tracks through but nothing too well established. However, among
these model solutions, the more precipitation that develops on the
northern flank of the system (deformation zone) there is also a
preference to hold over more significant warm air aloft, resulting
in rain switching over to a wintry mix first before perhaps ending
as snow. Needless to say, this illustrates the vast array of
solutions on how this event will end, with little confidence in any
particular one at this time.
The continuation of a longwave upper level TROF to our west into
early next week signals that unusually cold air will again be hard
to come by and will remain locked well up to the north. A general
preference for above normal temperatures interrupted briefly now and
then by more seasonable values seems to be the rule so far. Behind
the Saturday storm system, dry weather looks to prevail for Sunday
and into Monday.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 6, 2020 16:07:27 GMT -6
I would just like to give the middle finger to all that rain on our way. Now I feel better. Thank you. I’m with you.... I have a forecast low of 50 Thursday night and a high on Friday of 60 with rain in January..... |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 6, 2020 16:15:42 GMT -6
Recalling back in 6th grade. We had a teacher named Howard Abernathy. He was an older man with a lazy eye and i swear he could see you out of that eye when he was looking away. If he caught you not paying attn, he wld come over to you and shake you. If he didnt pull you out of your desk when you shook, you could count on some bruises from being banked around against those hard metal desks. He introduced us to the term draught. "Cape Girardeau had almost 10 inches of rain one day,a few years ago...thats a draught...not to be confused with drought", he said. Lol. Maybe adj just had a typo and meant to say draught. ;-)
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 6, 2020 16:17:09 GMT -6
If this was almost mid January instead of almost mid January we'd be getting a helluva a snowstorm
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Post by mchafin on Jan 6, 2020 16:27:17 GMT -6
Disco snippet : The GEFS MSLP maps show a more clear movement of the nearly stalled front by Friday night and continuing into Saturday as a wave of low pressure tracks into the Lower Ohio Valley and the main upper level storm system ejects from the Plains and tracks through our region. This should allow colder air to filter in at the low levels, but the colder air does not look unusually cold either. The GEFS has a clear preference at this time for a more open wave, and precipitation should largely shut off before the air becomes cold enough to switch rain over to snow. Other models have shown a bit more preference for a closed LOW to try to develop as the system tracks through but nothing too well established. However, among these model solutions, the more precipitation that develops on the northern flank of the system (deformation zone) there is also a preference to hold over more significant warm air aloft, resulting in rain switching over to a wintry mix first before perhaps ending as snow. Needless to say, this illustrates the vast array of solutions on how this event will end, with little confidence in any particular one at this time. The continuation of a longwave upper level TROF to our west into
early next week signals that unusually cold air will again be hard
to come by and will remain locked well up to the north. A general
preference for above normal temperatures interrupted briefly now and
then by more seasonable values seems to be the rule so far. Behind the Saturday storm system, dry weather looks to prevail for Sunday and into Monday. Well...This isn't great. 2 more weeks? |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 6, 2020 16:29:47 GMT -6
Gotta say I’m pretty shocked that the shallow arctic air doesn’t want to seep further south into this thing. That used to be a slam dunk.
I guess there’s still time for that to happen. What were the models showing in the ‘06 storm at this range? I don’t remember when it captured that aspect.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 6, 2020 16:37:59 GMT -6
Recalling back in 6th grade. We had a teacher named Howard Abernathy. He was an older man with a lazy eye and i swear he could see you out of that eye when he was looking away. If he caught you not paying attn, he wld come over to you and shake you. If he didnt pull you out of your desk when you shook, you could count on some bruises from being banked around against those hard metal desks. He introduced us to the term draught. "Cape Girardeau had almost 10 inches of rain one day,a few years ago...thats a draught...not to be confused with drought", he said. Lol. Maybe adj just had a typo and meant to say draught. ;-) I had a 7th grade teacher with the same visual situation. As he was looking at the other side of the room a piece of chalk or a chalkboard eraser was likely to come flying your way if you weren't paying attention. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 6, 2020 16:41:45 GMT -6
Definitely a period of interest heading into the weekend. Winter weather interesting? Excessive amounts of rain causing rivers to rise interest? Start gathering animals two by two interest? Check our survival provisions interest? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 6, 2020 16:43:06 GMT -6
Gotta say I’m pretty shocked that the shallow arctic air doesn’t want to seep further south into this thing. That used to be a slam dunk. I guess there’s still time for that to happen. What were the models showing in the ‘06 storm at this range? I don’t remember when it captured that aspect. I believe models were too deep with the cold air initially in 2006...showing more snow vs. ice. It took a while for them to catch onto the warm wedge. Still plenty of time to sort this one out... |
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