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Post by bdgwx on Jan 8, 2020 10:15:54 GMT -6
GEFS and EPS means are both > 3" of QPF.
12Z GFS came in with 5.0" at the airport.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2020 11:13:52 GMT -6
12z ukmet is a crusher
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2020 11:15:59 GMT -6
I know this has been asked several times but where’s the best place the view the ukie? |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2020 11:17:37 GMT -6
I know this has been asked several times but where’s the best place the view the ukie? I use weather.us. Limited features, but free. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 8, 2020 11:18:44 GMT -6
The qpf just keeps getting worse. And thats alot of rain in a relatively short period of time.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 8, 2020 11:21:02 GMT -6
This storm still has potential to drop a pretty healthy deformation snowfall but it's still tough to say exactly where. At this point I'd say a line from COU to UIN is probably favored, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it set up further SE. |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 8, 2020 11:24:34 GMT -6
This storm still has potential to drop a pretty healthy deformation snowfall but it's still tough to say exactly where. At this point I'd say a line from COU to UIN is probably favored, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it set up further SE. you just copied that from the NWS' Forecast Discussion. I see you. I see you! "Right now, the EPS suggests several inches along a KCOU>>KUIN axis" |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2020 11:25:54 GMT -6
I know this has been asked several times but where’s the best place the view the ukie? I use weather.us. Limited features, but free. Ya that looks like a potent backside for the area. Hopefully the euro follows suit |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 8, 2020 11:40:34 GMT -6
Im surprised at the chatter on here abt snow potential quite frankly. Not too interested in columbia to quincy snow. With the northward trend, im not thinking anything but blustery wind blown flakeage, but it cld play out differently i suppose. The big story is the heavy rainfall.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 8, 2020 11:48:07 GMT -6
Im surprised at the chatter on here abt snow potential quite frankly. Not too interested in columbia to quincy snow. With the northward trend, im not thinking anything but blustery wind blown flakeage, but it cld play out differently i suppose. The big story is the heavy rainfall. I mean...one of the best models is showing significant backside snowfall across the area. This one is definitely not resolved quite yet... |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 8, 2020 12:01:32 GMT -6
Im surprised at the chatter on here abt snow potential quite frankly. Not too interested in columbia to quincy snow. With the northward trend, im not thinking anything but blustery wind blown flakeage, but it cld play out differently i suppose. The big story is the heavy rainfall. I mean...one of the best models is showing significant backside snowfall across the area. This one is definitely not resolved quite yet... Especially considering it is due to secondary development. I think everyone is a little gun shy to try to predict where the front will stall out at and how far NW if any at all the secondary pushes it. It’s definitely not a slam dunk forecast by any stretch outside of the potential for really heavy rain. The temp profile is going to be close to the ideal heavy snow temp profile, but I am still not seeing any arctic air connection and the snow pack is waaaay north in the traditional snowbelts. I personally am not expecting anything but a nuisance snow, with little impact. Yes, it’s possible for an all January rain storm even in the defo band. If it’s going to happen, it’s definitely this pattern. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 8, 2020 12:07:04 GMT -6
Remember the trend that goes back several months (really more like a year + now) for secondary development. While a different setup, Wave #2 on the December snow was pretty stout.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2020 12:15:13 GMT -6
euro is so damn close.  Pukey |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 8, 2020 12:20:10 GMT -6
euro is so damn close. Pukey Hopefully the GFS can make it look inferior like it did with the last system. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 8, 2020 12:31:51 GMT -6
We need a 50-100 mile shift south East and the metro would be in a good spot . We are still 3 days out right so that is possible. Not really likely. Unfortunately, we need a few things to come together, a stronger high from the north a slightly weaker storm that doesn’t deepen until its past us , but then we want it to rapidly deepen Once it’s past , to create a real big def zone right on top of us. I think Columbia to Quincy is the sweet spot.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 8, 2020 12:32:26 GMT -6
What did the UKMET show for accumulation?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2020 12:37:39 GMT -6
What did the UKMET show for accumulation? Roughly 4-8 inches assuming upper air temps are cold enough. I only get surface temps unfortunately. It’s a whopper |
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 8, 2020 12:44:54 GMT -6
What did the UKMET show for accumulation? Roughly 4-8 inches assuming upper air temps are cold enough. I only get surface temps unfortunately. It’s a whopper for what area and I’m assuming that’s the def zone? Based on those amounts I would REALLY hope the air aloft is cool enough or that would be a French toast situation for sure! |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 8, 2020 12:51:34 GMT -6
Roughly 4-8 inches assuming upper air temps are cold enough. I only get surface temps unfortunately. It’s a whopper for what area and I’m assuming that’s the def zone? Based on those amounts I would REALLY hope the air aloft is cool enough or that would be a French toast situation for sure! It’s the deformation zone and it’s for most of the metro. I don’t want to get too fine with it because the output isn’t super granular. Big picture, the 12z ukmet has the ideal outcome for all of us. It’s the 2nd best model in the world, so it deserves some weight. Now, if we could get the best model in the world to trend slightly weaker and southeast, we would be in business. Hopefully, the euro ensembles are a bit southeast. It’s very close |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 8, 2020 12:55:55 GMT -6
I really hope UKMET will one day allow open or semi-open access like what NOAA and ECMWF currently do. UKMET is a world class model and we'd all to like to see it more integrated into the forecasting workflow.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 8, 2020 12:56:45 GMT -6
GEFS and EPS means are both > 3" of QPF. 12Z GFS came in with 5.0" at the airport. It would be nice if the severe weather south of us would steal our rain instead of our snow for a change.
And I don't want to hear about that the experts saying that doesn't happen. Malarkey.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2020 13:08:53 GMT -6
Seems like there is a small shift SE in the 12z euro ensembles. Could just be noise though
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2020 13:14:16 GMT -6
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Post by GlendaleWxGuy on Jan 8, 2020 13:17:17 GMT -6
We're driving to Iowa City on Friday....was going to leave mid afternoon but have now moved the departure time up to late morning. Hoping that's early enough!
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 8, 2020 14:33:25 GMT -6
Flash flood watches have been hoisted.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2020 14:34:28 GMT -6
Flash flood watches have been hoisted. Why, is it going to rain? |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 8, 2020 14:48:44 GMT -6
18Z NAM is north, brings us close to the severe storm sector.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 8, 2020 14:57:09 GMT -6
Flash flood watches have been hoisted. Why, is it going to rain? I dunno maybe 🤷 |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 8, 2020 15:12:40 GMT -6
I think there will be impact with the temps falling and with 4 plus inches of rain (yes im ratcheting up rainfall), if temps fall fast enough on the heels of some of the heavier rain, a flash freeze situation can occur increasing the impact. But alot of that depends on timing and while some hv said an earlier saturday timing, im thinking more more gradual timing during the day, thereby making more of a cold rain scenario in the metro. Then as upper level system comes through, light snow in the evening. Wld not surprise me to see a bit of a metro split with col to quincy then another max area somewhere across jeffco. However for now just heavy rain to light snow is probably best way to describe it.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 8, 2020 15:23:31 GMT -6
ICON very close to a kaboom
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Pukey
