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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 8, 2020 15:28:11 GMT -6
Even though I hate the ICON it is a squirrel's hair south with the cold air and def. zone. Actually pretty close the GFS.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 8, 2020 15:28:47 GMT -6
Flash freeze would only happen on elevated surfaces if it was to happen. Ground temps otherwise are very warm and with it being above freezing for the next 60+ hours and close to or above 60° on Friday they will be plenty warm. Now if precip continues to fall after sunset Saturday evening then there may be more issues. I’m not even really planning to have to do much with this one at this point other then check some north facing areas. Hopefully I’m wrong with that thinking tho.
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220 
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Jan 8, 2020 15:49:38 GMT -6
ICON very close to a kaboom Kaboom for Who? |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 8, 2020 16:08:57 GMT -6
18z GFS Looks great for the metro area, a 1-3” type backside snow. You basically have the GFS , UKMET, and ICON are south and East vs. the EURO , GEM and NAM that are deeper and more wrapped up causing a more north west solution. The Euro has been to wrapped up with storms this season only to trend weaker closer to the event. I wish we had more ensemble support on our side .
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 8, 2020 16:11:55 GMT -6
NWS doesn’t sound to excited about snow in this area.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2020 16:14:41 GMT -6
NWS has 1 inch here 1-2 in warren county 4 inches in columbia. Losers.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 8, 2020 16:48:06 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2020 16:53:53 GMT -6
well that's a given
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 8, 2020 17:03:11 GMT -6
NWS doesn’t sound to excited about snow in this area. They weren’t with the hefty Dec system either. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2020 17:13:54 GMT -6
Shockingly, the GFS has backed well off of the freezer next week. Still cold, but nearly as much.
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 8, 2020 17:19:45 GMT -6
This Winter sucks. Double middle fingers. Now I feel better.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 8, 2020 17:27:18 GMT -6
NWS doesn’t sound to excited about snow in this area. I wouldn’t be either if I was in their position. Sole focus should be on flash flooding. The potential is there for some heavy backside snow but they can throw that in Friday if they feel it’s necessary. |
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Post by RyanD on Jan 8, 2020 17:29:55 GMT -6
This Winter sucks. Double middle fingers. Now I feel better. It is Jan 8th and I've already seen 11" of snow since Nov so it hasn't sucked for me. While I'm not sold on snow this weekend I think there is still a solid shot though best bet I think is NW of the metro. Not sure about down here though a few have said the chances increase again down here SE of town. Not looking forward to all this rain though. Gross! |
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Post by RyanD on Jan 8, 2020 17:32:55 GMT -6
NWS doesn’t sound to excited about snow in this area. I wouldn’t be either if I was in their position. Sole focus should be on flash flooding. The potential is there for some heavy backside snow but they can throw that in Friday if they feel it’s necessary. Agreed! Always safest to be conservative with forecasting snow in STL and with the timing issues and variance in model solutions you can't blame them for playing it safe. As soon as they mention snow the general public freaks out and then expects it to happen. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 8, 2020 17:51:21 GMT -6
Seems like central MO could be in the biggest potential bust zone. HWY 63 in central Missouri will kind of be the dividing line between the haves and have nots of the heaviest snow... based on euro/nam projections. the pivot point of the mid-level low is... as usual... going to be crucial.
Still a few days out.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 8, 2020 18:12:24 GMT -6
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 8, 2020 18:12:45 GMT -6
The afternoon AFD describes the moisture available for this storm as "incredible amounts" and "shocking amounts".
At least once in my life I want to experience a storm where "shocking amounts" of snow is expected...
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 8, 2020 18:17:54 GMT -6
Somebody posted this one from this afternoon as well |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 8, 2020 18:30:29 GMT -6
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 8, 2020 18:37:42 GMT -6
I just have a bad feeling about the meremac and big rivers with this storm. Really hoping for the lower end of the rain totals here.
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 392 
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Post by twocat on Jan 8, 2020 18:49:06 GMT -6
When I read some of the comments on Chris's FB posts my eyes roll so far back in my head I can hear my mother saying "one day they'll get stuck like that." Good grief FB people. Is it too much to ask to know where the heck you actually are on a map? Or that forecasts for later/next week will actually be a thing? I know Chris can't be snarky to the public. I'd probably be better off not reading them. This might be how some of you who actually understand the models/weather graphics/forecasting tools feel when some of us peons post.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 8, 2020 19:02:39 GMT -6
Shocking lol no snow for us yet again |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 8, 2020 19:26:07 GMT -6
18z Euro is in with 3-5+" of QPF in and around St. Louis area. So let's see...according to the Hydrometeorological Design Studies Center: We've had a 1-200yr rain event in Dec 2015 and a 1-100yr rain event in April 2017. Now there is the potential for a 1-10yr to 1-25yr rain event if the high end forecasts pan out. Either the HDSC is using bad data/assumptions to begin with or they need to make updates.
Edit: The HDSC data I was looking at does not consider time of year. These types of events in Dec/Jan must be less frequent than the data would suggest I would guess.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 8, 2020 19:38:11 GMT -6
Yea more rain, it’s so boring
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jan 8, 2020 19:40:46 GMT -6
When I read some of the comments on Chris's FB posts my eyes roll so far back in my head I can hear my mother saying "one day they'll get stuck like that." Good grief FB people. Is it too much to ask to know where the heck you actually are on a map? Or that forecasts for later/next week will actually be a thing? I know Chris can't be snarky to the public. I'd probably be better off not reading them. This might be how some of you who actually understand the models/weather graphics/forecasting tools feel when some of us peons post. I actually thought about putting a bullseye on the location on the map with arrows pointing to Belleville spelled out in red letters & politely suggesting that everyone , for their own safety, in a multitude of situations, should know where they are on a map. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2020 19:41:00 GMT -6
More yard soup.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 8, 2020 19:52:24 GMT -6
Anybody doing anything special this weekend?
We are throwing our very first swamp party in our backyard. Scuba gear required.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 8, 2020 19:55:58 GMT -6
Im building Niagra Falls off of my mountain in st.peters lol
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 8, 2020 19:57:41 GMT -6
Did they put out an ice forecast? |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 8, 2020 20:04:26 GMT -6
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