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Post by jmg378s on Jan 8, 2020 22:59:13 GMT -6
Current day 3 WPC excessive rainfall outlook is going to need some adjustments in the next outlook. Deterministic and ensemble modeling has been highlighting the I-44 corridor all day.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 8, 2020 23:01:53 GMT -6
I like the 00z gfs run for Troy, MO. Maybe I'll cash in on "some" snow or maybe not
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2020 23:04:53 GMT -6
Ukie still looks good
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 8, 2020 23:12:59 GMT -6
This upper level jet structure is beautiful. Just look at the speed divergence and flow diffluence over Missouri. The downstream jet streak eventually peaks at over 230kts!  And this low level convergence/frontogenesis is insane. That's basically 80kts of convergence over a very short distance.  |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 8, 2020 23:15:34 GMT -6
I'm rooting for some snow too, but for the lurkers watching the forum the threat of flash flooding Friday night and into Saturday really needs to be emphasized.
Flash flood guidance numbers are low across the area ranging from about 1.5-2.5" in a 6 hour period.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 8, 2020 23:19:05 GMT -6
That is a beautiful jet structure. Just wish it was bringing us snow not rain
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 8, 2020 23:21:55 GMT -6
Still bringing a very robust deformation (likely snow?) into Stl. It appears from the QPF fields that the model may be picking up on some mesoscale banding. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 9, 2020 0:01:40 GMT -6
It’s not the track that’s the problem. We just don’t have the cold available. It’s just not there.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 9, 2020 0:03:13 GMT -6
Just thought this is interesting... 500 from 1982 compared to this one coming up is quite similar. Surface features are too... although the surface low is further north. There may be a 50 mile wide path of some big snow totals somewhere across MO   |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2020 0:14:13 GMT -6
Euro has some decent deformation precep into the metro. Unfortunately not sure that’s all snow
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 9, 2020 5:01:24 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 9, 2020 6:27:35 GMT -6
Holy smokes... the 06z GFS refuses to back away from the extreme cold next week taking STL below zero Wednesday night!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 9, 2020 6:41:35 GMT -6
The ICON is holding on to snow potential Saturday... but everything else has taken the bulk of the snow to our north. Looking at the 850 and 500mb lows it is a very messy pattern initially until a more organized center takes over Saturday. The bulk of accumulating snow will run from central/western missouri up into northeast mo. I think the northwest counties may see 1-3" but I don't currently expect much more than a light coating (if that) for metro STL...with little if any snow east/southeast of STL.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 9, 2020 7:13:46 GMT -6
I wonder if people are going to be pissed when they only get 3.5” of rain instead of 4”.
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Post by scmhack on Jan 9, 2020 7:25:55 GMT -6
I wonder if people are going to be pissed when they only get 3.5” of rain instead of 4”. Do you even have to wonder? |
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 9, 2020 7:47:22 GMT -6
Good to see 6” snowfall amount where no one lives. 😀 |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2020 7:48:32 GMT -6
Holy smokes... the 06z GFS refuses to back away from the extreme cold next week taking STL below zero Wednesday night! And the euro has it getting cooler but nothing even in the same neighborhood as the gfs. Gee..I wonder which one will "win". This month still looks like a crappy month, like I mentioned a couple weeks ago. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 9, 2020 8:19:01 GMT -6
Are these winds going to continue through Friday night?
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 9, 2020 8:42:15 GMT -6
Without snowcover, i cant imagine below 0 temps and i cant imagine that the cold will last for any period of time before we get back to normal or above. It has been a wild and crazy ride this year.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2020 8:49:44 GMT -6
Without snowcover, i cant imagine below 0 temps and i cant imagine that the cold will last for any period of time before we get back to normal or above. It has been a wild and crazy ride this year. not really. It was cold for a while in Nov., otherwise it's been very mild. Lamest roller coaster ever. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 9, 2020 8:53:26 GMT -6
The UK also shows an interesting scenario for Saturday still. That is one of the most solid models out there... So it could be briefly interesting Saturday afternoon. Time will tell. I'm not focusing too closely on the snow potential at this point. The rain is story #1.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 9, 2020 9:17:12 GMT -6
The UK also shows an interesting scenario for Saturday still. That is one of the most solid models out there... So it could be briefly interesting Saturday afternoon. Time will tell. I'm not focusing too closely on the snow potential at this point. The rain is story #1. if you don't mind my asking, what is the 'interesting scenario?' |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 9, 2020 9:18:53 GMT -6
Pivotal weather has a graphic on FB showing over 90KTS of low level jet in the MO boot heel on Saturday morning. They elaborated stating that it broke their graphic color wheel. lol
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 9, 2020 9:37:47 GMT -6
The UK also shows an interesting scenario for Saturday still. That is one of the most solid models out there... So it could be briefly interesting Saturday afternoon. Time will tell. I'm not focusing too closely on the snow potential at this point. The rain is story #1. if you don't mind my asking, what is the 'interesting scenario?' Shows two deformation bands. Main one to our west... but a smaller/mesoscale like feature coming north right along Hwy 67 through STL that would put down several inches of snow if it were to happen over metro STL. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 9, 2020 9:46:13 GMT -6
is the gfs trying to develop 2 sfc lows here or is this feed back?? i.imgur.com/n4EMxNb.pngI'm referring to the frontal "lobe" developing in western MO |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 9, 2020 9:52:05 GMT -6
is the gfs trying to develop 2 sfc lows here or is this feed back?? i.imgur.com/n4EMxNb.pngI'm referring to the frontal "lobe" developing in western MO Looks like an inverted trof in response to the upper level divergence. The multiple centers further east are probably due to convective feedback... |
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 9, 2020 10:11:56 GMT -6
Just thought this is interesting... 500 from 1982 compared to this one coming up is quite similar. Surface features are too... although the surface low is further north. There may be a 50 mile wide path of some big snow totals somewhere across MO I know 82 also started as rain. But was it a short time of rain and a quick transition or prolonged heavy rain fall? |
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 9, 2020 10:15:01 GMT -6
I know 82 also started as rain. But was it a short time of rain and a quick transition or prolonged heavy rain fall? Prolonged heavy rainfall |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2020 10:18:51 GMT -6
I gotta say it is so darn frustrating to see a storm start to pull together in our wheelhouse only to explode and lift N. Reminiscent to the Merry Muddy Christmas though not quite as extreme.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2020 10:23:11 GMT -6
Good news is, EPO is in the negative and looks to stay there, true cold looks to be entrenched by middle of next week, and the GFS is back to showing a system of interest coming out of the SW and riding into the arctic air a week from now.
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